Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game. That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all NFL interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “Yes” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 8-4 for +4.6U.
In 2024, we’re seeing far less quarterbacks with plus-odds to throw an interception, with only seven heading into this week. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus-odds. Continue below for my NFL interception props for Week 9.
Kyler Murray
To Throw Interception (-108)
Kyler Murray is one of my favorite quarterbacks to bet for anytime touchdowns, but he’s slowly becoming sneaky for interception props. He’s thrown a pick in three of the last six games with a one week off, one week on pattern. Now, facing the Bears this week, this should be one where he turns it over.
I know the Bears secondary got clowned for how they handled the Commanders’ Hail Mary in Week 8 but this is still an elite defense. They rank sixth in defensive DVOA vs the pass and have forced the opposing QB to throw an interception in six of eight games. They also rank seventh in interception rate per dropback (3.1%) with seven total interceptions this season.
The Bears’ pressure rate (27.6%, ranked seventh) is why I keep going back to them because with their zone defense, they can get to the QB while waiting for potential missed throws.
Matt Stafford
To Throw Interception (-115)
Last week, I bet on a quarterback to go into Seattle and throw an interception and he went onto throw his first pick of the year. That was Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen. This week, we’re going back to Seattle, and taking an QB INT prop fave of mine, which is Matt Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams to throw an interception at -115.
Sometimes, I think it’s as simple as Stafford can’t help himself. In each of the last two games, when he’s thrown a pick, the Rams had been leading by at least one score. The two games before that, it was within a trailing game-script inside of a seven-point margin. These are moments that should be costly to the Rams but because of Stafford's incredible arm talent, he’ll try to squeeze throws in that most QBs wouldn’t.
Going into this game against the Seahawks, he’s thrown an INT in four straight games, and the key factor is how he’s reacted to pressure.
Four of his five interceptions this season have come when under pressure, and only one against the blitz. Well, the Seahawks are top-seven in pressure rate per dropback (27.1%), while simultaneously ranking in the bottom-10 in blitz rate, which checks both boxes to potentially turn Stafford over.
With the Seahawks defense is getting more players back from injury in the secondary, I had expected these odds for Stafford INT to be closer to -130. So at -115, I’m happy to bet it again.
