While many people like to bet on quarterbacks excelling and scoring touchdowns, I enjoy wagering on the other end of the spectrum. There is a lot of value in betting on interceptions.
I'll be breaking down the quarterback interception market all season to identify spots where we can cash in on quarterback errors.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “Yes” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
Now, in 2023, Week 1 had 15 quarterbacks have plus-odds to throw an INT but in 2024, we’re only seeing four total as of this writing. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
Here’s the quarterback interception props I like for Week 1.
Josh Allen
To Throw Interception (-105)
Part of this bet is my ongoing fade of QB Josh Allen as a passer as I’ve bet him to throw Most Interceptions for 2024 season at +1000. As dynamic as Allen is, he finished with the second-most interceptions in the NFL in each of the last 3 seasons. He’s also thrown the most interceptions total in that span. The reason why I bet him for Most INT but also betting him in Week 1 he’s one of a handful of QBs that can throw three interceptions in a game and not get benched.
Last year, he threw 15 of his 18 interceptions when he wasn’t blitzed and the Cardinals were a bottom-10 blitzing team. They also played the 5th-highest rate of Zone and still managed to get 11 interceptions despite facing the 2nd-least amount of pass attempts.
On paper, the Cardinals are a pretty easy opponent for the Bills but when Allen faces NFC teams, he tends to turn it over. In the last 16 games vs NFC opponents, Allen has thrown an INT in 14 of them with 21 INTs.
Bryce Young
To Throw Interception (+100)
I’m higher on the Panthers this year than most and do expect them to be competitive in Week 1 but QB Bryce Young has a tough matchup out of the gate. The Saints were ranked first in total passes defended last year (92), were tied for third in total interceptions (18) while also ranking outside the top-10 in pass-defense DVOA (ranked 12th). New Orleans’s 3.2 interception rate per pass ranked seventh in the NFL in 2023.
The Panthers passing game was a mess and they tended to take the ball out of Young’s hands to avoid turnovers as he became passive with his throws. Well, they brought in a new head coach in Dave Canales, who has a more passing approach to his scheme. If you recall, he was the O-Coordinator for the Bucs last year with Baker Mayfield and was with the Seahawks helping out Geno Smith before that. Both QBs saw their passing attempts aggressively increase with Canales as the OC. This means Young may be airing it out a bit more, which naturally leads to potential turnovers.
With Young throwing 10 last year, facing an underrated Saints defense on the road, this feels like a great spot for the former No.1-overall pick to get picked.
