Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
With that said, here are the quarterback interception props I like for Week 2.
Jared Goff
To Throw Interception (+115)
The quarterback with the highest interception odds of the week, Lions QB Jared Goff, immediately stood out as an INT candidate in Week 2.
Part of the reason why I like this bet is how Goff responds under pressure, which usually isn’t great. Of his 12 interceptions last season, nine came while under pressure, with six came when he faced the blitz. Well, the Bucs in Week 1 blitzed at a 42.4% rate, which was third in the NFL, and they ranked third in blitz rate last season at 40.1%. They’ll crash the line at a high rate and potentially tip some passes.
Goff may still end up lighting up the Bucs secondary, but if he has to throw it 43 times again like he did in last year’s Divisional Playoff game, I love his chances to turn it over against an underrated Buccaneers defense.
C.J. Stroud
To Throw Interception (+100)
This feels like sacrilege to bet against QB C.J. Stroud because he’s only thrown an interception in three of his 18 games played, including playoffs. That being said, he got a bit lucky last year with only five picks total, as he was projected to finish with closer to nine based on turnover-worthy throws. He’s coming off another masterful game vs. the Colts, but for Week 2, he has to face an up-and-coming Bears defense that forced Will Levis into two back-breaking interceptions last week.
This is building on what we saw last year, when the Bears — tied with the 49ers for the most interceptions in the NFL (22) — were first in interception rate per dropback (3.6) and finished with the seventh-most passes defended (83). This was after they finished 2023 with the least amount of rushing TDs and rushing yards allowed.
I expect Stroud pass attempts to go up since they ran it 40 times in Week 1 — and if that’s the case, this should be closer to -120.
