Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 7-2 for +6.7 units.
In 2024, we’re seeing far fewer quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception with only nine heading into Week 3. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
Here are the quarterback interception props I like for Week 3.
Sam Darnold
To Throw Interception (-115)
This is too much respect for Vikings QB Sam Darnold. He’s thrown an interception in both Week 1 and Week 2 and had INT odds of -140 or higher. Now, he’s got the Texans coming to town and I’m seeing a -115 for a QB that has 58 career interceptions in 68 career games?
While I give credit to Darnold for being a competent passer through two weeks and reducing his bad-ball rate, his receiving corps is a bit too banged up for my liking. WR Jordan Addison hasn’t practiced and WR Justin Jefferson had to leave Week 2 with a thigh injury. That could lead to critical mistakes if Darnold is forced to rely on rookie WR Jalen Nailor or WR Brandon Powell.
The Texans defense has also been a force through two games with three interceptions, and they are third in NFL in total sacks. They’re also one of the top teams in coverage, with 10 passes defended through two games and an INT per dropback rate at 5.4%, ranked fourth in the NFL. They should be able to make Darnold turn it over.
Jalen Hurts
To Throw Interception (-115)
I swear Eagles fans, this isn’t anything personal. The matchup is too good to overlook. The Eagles are back for their first true road game of the season when they head to New Orleans, and Hurts could be in trouble throwing the football.
The Saints defense has been a bit lucky through two weeks with interceptions but their closing speed to the ball can’t be ignored. The Saints lead the NFL in total passes defended (12) and a 5.5% interception rate per dropback. Add that in with ranking top five in total sacks and blitz rate and this could be a tough matchup for Hurts to get completions.
The Eagles will obviously lean on the run when possible, but the Saints have been a wall through two weeks with only one rushing TD allowed and a longest rush of eight yards total. This carries over from last year when the Saints ranked top five in rushing TDs allowed and interceptions forced.
Hurts' interception “prowess” also can’t be overstated, as he had 15 INTs last year, was the most-profitable QB for INT props in 2023 at +8.9U, and had an INT in six of nine road games. He’s also thrown a pick in 13 of his last 19 regular season games (68%) since the start of 2023. Based on implied odds, he should be closer to -200 if the 68% success rate continues.
With Eagles WR A.J. Brown expected to miss another week and the Saints top cornerback in Marshon Lattimore expected back for Week 3, I love this bet.
