Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “Yes” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 8-4 for +4.6U.
In 2024, we’re seeing far less quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception with only 7 heading into Week 5. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
Here are the quarterback interception props I like for Week 5.
Sam Darnold
To Throw Interception (-115)
I know Aaron Rodgers seems like the obvious answer here because he’s +115 to throw an interception and the Vikings defense has been ballhawks (eight INT in five games). But there’s something about Vikings QB Sam Darnold at -115 to throw a pick that doesn’t sit right with me. As I looked further into the data, this should be closer to -130.
The Jets defense may not have the turnovers yet this season but it’s mainly because opponents are playing super conservative against them. They just had back-to-back games in which the opposing quarterback barely attempted to throw the ball downfield. Jacoby Brissett and Bo Nix combined for 43 pass attempts and 150 yards and their aDOT was less than five yards per throw. It’s kinda hard to intercept a ball or rack up pass defended stats when there’s so few opportunities. Now, the Jets are facing a Vikings team that loves to throw and get their receivers involved which I think will be problematic for Darnold.
The Jets have forced 14 sacks (ranked fourth in NFL) and are eighth in pressure rate per dropback while ranking in the bottom 10 in blitz rate. Considering Darnold, despite his hot start, has still thrown an INT in three of four games and now has more tape to study, I think we are getting a bit of a discount at -115.
Jayden Daniels
To Throw Interception (-105)
The Cleveland Browns defense hasn’t been as sharp this season compared to last year, but this is a game where I think they breakout on a rookie quarterback and force Jayden Daniels to throw his second interception of the season.
Coming into Week 5, there are only four teams that have yet to force an interception this season: the Commanders, Jaguars, Titans and Browns. The Titans and Commanders make sense as their defenses aren’t very good at forcing turnovers and both ranked in the bottom five in interceptions last season. But the Browns? It’s mind-boggling with the defensive pieces they have that more turnovers haven’t been forced. They were third in INT forced last year (18), passes defended (92) and INT rate per dropback (3.4). This year, they’re middle of the pack with total passes defended (16) but every defense ahead of them in that category has at least one interception on the season.
The Commanders have also been lucky with their schedule this season with three defenses in a row that rank in the bottom 10 in pass defense DVOA. This isn’t me saying Daniels isn’t good but more that this will be the toughest defense he’s faced all season. At -105, there’s value here as I had expected odds of -125.
