There's just a few weeks of football left, and this is the last Saturday slate for a long time. We'll be trying to go out with a bang with some live bets for the two-game afternoon, with Texans at Ravens up first at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.
Of course, it's hard to find edges in every game, as opposed to having a big slate to choose from. That means we won't necessarily have a bet in both games depending on how they play out, but we'll have specific scenarios we're watching for.
NFL Live Betting for Divisional Round Saturday
Packers at 49ers: Unders In a Blowout? — LIVE BET MADE, Packers Moneyline (+100, FanDuel)
Green Bay went up seven shortly after the 49ers ruled out Deebo Samuel for the game. The 49ers offense struggled without Samuel this season, losing three consecutive games without him in the middle of the year. We'll take a sprinkle at the Packers moneyline at +100 on FanDuel and bank on them to hold on against a limited 49ers offense.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -108 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +390 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -112 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -520 |
The 49ers might be my least-favorite team to attempt to live bet. They play slow in most every scenario, but that's a misleading statistic. They produce so many big plays that they can score quickly even on limited play volume, which throws off the type of analysis we do here.
It's also tough to know how this game being in the playoffs will change the 49ers' approach. Will they look to keep their foot on the gas longer than usual, or have a quicker trigger on keeping star players safe? The former seems a bit more likely — especially since their stars have basically had the last two weeks off — but that's not a confident read.
What we do know is that Green Bay needs to be able to run the ball to have much of a chance here. The 49ers defense ranks top-five in DVOA and yards per play against the pass but just middle of the pack against the run. We're also expecting wet and windy weather in the Bay area, which will make it even harder to throw the ball.
Therefore, if San Francisco has their typical offensive outburst early — and there's nothing about the Packers defense to suggest they won't — we'll be trying to catch the biggest number possible and bet the under. The pregame line has ticked up a point to 50.5, but we'll be holding out for something better.
There's also the possibility of some "ring rust" from the 49ers skill players. They haven't all played together in three weeks at this point, and could come out flat. If that's the case, we'd love to take an over at a low number, as it also correlates with the Packers being able to keep running the ball, which they've done extremely well in recent weeks.
That latter case is more of a hunch than anything data-driven, so we'll be quite picky about getting some line movement to help us out there.
Our Live Bets From Earlier
Texans at Ravens: Overs if Houston Plays Well — LIVE BET MADE, Over 46.5 (-115, FanDuel)
Houston tied it up at 10-10 with a punt return touchdown, their first touchdown of the day. However, their offense has been better than the lack of scoring would suggest. CJ Stroud is 8-for-14 for 84 yards despite (at least) two bad drops from his receivers and has led two drives into Ravens territory. Additionally, Lamar and the Ravens will be pushed to play quicker in a close game, while continuing to attack the Texans 23rd-ranked pass defense.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
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| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +340 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -430 |
A rough weather forecast has pushed the total in this game down about two or three points from where it opened. Extraneous circumstances like weather make things like live betting difficult, as they tend to "override" some of the typical things we look at.
That's doubly true when we have a warm-weather team like Houston who's unaccustomed to dealing with tough winter conditions. The only even remotely difficult weather they've played in this season was a December 17th matchup in Tennessee that CJ Stroud missed, so it's hard to predict the impact of the conditions on him.
Absent weather concerns, the play here would be to take the over if the Texans perform better than expected, but the under otherwise. This game projects to play fast in a close game or with a Texans lead, but slow if the heavily-favored Ravens go up multiple scores. That aligns nicely with the defensive matchups — Houston is second against the run in DVOA, while Baltimore is first against the pass.
That will be our starting point here, but not something we're willing to blindly bet into. We'll need to see the Texans offense pass the eye test before taking an over — though that's heavily correlated with the game staying close or a Texans lead. On the other hand, assuming the Ravens lead is a result of Houston struggling on offense, the under makes sense.
Hopefully those things also line up with some helpful movement to the total — though that's trying to thread a pretty narrow needle at this point. It would be hard for Houston's offense to overperform and the total to dip, but it's not impossible. We're not going to be overly picky on the number we take if it fits our scenario.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
