Just three games left in the 2023-2024 NFL season, with the Conference Championship round upon us. We have the Ravens hosting the Chiefs at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, as Kansas City makes their sixth consecutive trip to the AFC title game.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Lions have a shot to go to their first ever Super Bowl, as their first NFC title game since 1992 kicks off in San Francisco at 6:30.
NFL Live Betting: How We're Live Betting the NFC Championship Game
Lions at 49ers: Unders With a Niners Lead, Overs With a Detroit Lead
For this game, I'm live with Dr. Nick and Simon Hunter on "Bet What Happens Live." Come stop by to see what we're live betting.
We're starting with some player props, with Christian McCaffrey over 6.5 receptions and Brandon Aiyuk under 69.5 receiving yards. We're also taking the over on McCaffrey's combined rushing and receiving total of 125.5 yards, and we'll take Brock Purdy under 37.5 pass attempts.
For some slightly longer odds, we're doing a half unit on both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to score another TD each.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -120 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +295 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -102 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
This game is the polar opposite of its AFC counterpart. Detroit is a significant pass funnel on defense, with the third-best rushing defense in the NFL (both by DVOA and yards per carry) and a bad passing defense. The Lions rank middle of the pack in DVOA at 16th, but 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt. The 49ers are the inverse, with a mediocre rushing defense and elite unit against the pass.
That sets up nicely for live bets, especially in the likelier scenario of the 49ers controlling the game. As roughly touchdown favorites, San Francisco is fairly likely to be in the driver's seat, but their pass defense makes them a tough team to come back on. It's also unlikely they'll be especially efficient on the ground, which should hold scoring down.
In the less likely scenario Detroit takes over, this game has massive shootout potential. The Lions have an excellent rushing offense and should continue to put up points against a beatable 49ers front. On the other side of the ball, Detroit will struggle to keep the 49ers from scoring through the air.
If the Lions get an early lead, we'll be fairly quick on the trigger. Even a 7-0 lead after the first drive might be enough, assuming the live total isn't too much higher than the 52 or so offered pregame. An early Detroit score shows that they can move the ball against a tough defense, and likely motivates San Francisco to stay aggressive until they're able to go up at least two scores.
On the other side, We'll be waiting until at least halftime or so before jumping in on the under. We don't expect the 49ers to take their foot off the gas in the first half even if they go up a couple scores, which should keep pushing the total up. Detroit has also been much better when running a scripted offense, so they get the ball to start the second half, waiting until after their first drive makes sense as well.
Speaking of halftime, I'll be joining Dr. Nick on "Bet What Happens Live" at the two-minute warning of the first half, so be sure to tune in. Besides sides and totals, we'll be going over a slew of player props using his live model.
Our NFL Live Bets from the AFC Championship Game
Chiefs at Ravens: Overs in a Close Game? — LIVE BET MADE, Over 38.5
Update, 5:28 p.m. ET: The Ravens got a spark thanks to a 54-yard bomb to Zay Flowers, and are likely to turn this into a one-score game soon. ESPN left 38.5 on the board (which represents two more touchdowns plus an additional point) which we'll take just before the end of the third quarter.
Update, 4:37 p.m. ET: The Chiefs' field goal just before halftime gives them a double-digit lead heading into the locker room. They also get the ball to start the third quarter, and are firmly in control of this one. Let's let the first drive of the second half play out before looking to jump in on an under, now that the total has fallen to 45.5.
Update, 3:50 p.m. ET: The Chiefs' sack fumble on Lamar Jackson is the first big play of the game from either defense, and marks a major momentum swing for the Chiefs. Since the turnover was in Baltimore territory, it drove the total up even further to 54.5, and a Chiefs score might take it high enough to consider betting the under — or some Isaiah Pacheco live prop overs.
Update, 3:44 p.m. ET: Another Chiefs score makes three straight touchdown drives since the Ravens went 3-and-out to open the game. The total is now 52.5, and if either team is able to pull away by multiple scores would likely lead to a bet on the under.
Update, 3:25 p.m. ET: Baltimore answered back with a 30-yard touchdown pass to Zay Flowers on a play where Lamar Jackson was dead to rights in the pocket. This has the feel of an impending shootout, with the total all the way up to 51.5. That's a high line, but hopefully we'll be able to get some downward movement and jump in on the over soon.
Update, 3:18 p.m. ET: Kansas City forced a three and out early before pulling off a vintage drive offensively. After picking up a big fourth down conversion they marched the field and got it to their star tight end Travis Kelce, giving them a 7-0 lead and taking the live total up to 46.5. If Baltimore answers it would be a good thing for the over, another Chiefs stop and score and we start to get into under territory.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff.
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 44.5 -102o / -120u | +184 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 44.5 -102o / -120u | -220 |
The question mark in the header reflects the fact that this isn't a great game to live bet. The problem is the similarities of both teams. Both defenses are considerably better against the pass than they are the run, with both offenses ranking in the top third or so of the league in both categories.
The pace splits also don't give us a ton to work with here. In theory they point to second half unders, but that's more a reflection of two teams that combined to go 24-10 in the regular season slowing things down when playing with significant leads late into games.
Additionally, while both teams play well faster than average from behind, they also slow things down more than average when leading by multiple scores. Those factors roughly balance out to produce a slightly slow game — and even slower with the Ravens in front. We might pursue those angles in a true blowout, but they aren't strong enough to produce in edge in a 10-point game, for example.
However, a close game should lead to a quicker pace. These offenses look to play aggressively until/unless they get a comfortable lead, combining to play about 1.5-seconds faster than league average. In addition, having two elite quarterbacks raises the chances of a shootout considerably, tough defensive matchups notwithstanding.
With any of these somewhat thin angles we'll need some movement from the pregame total of 44.5, and ideally some fluky situations that drive the score up or down. The likeliest scenario is a no bet, though we'll consider pursuing other markets than the total.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
