It's somehow Week 11 already, and Thursday Night Football brings us the Packers and the Titans. Tennessee is surprisingly 6-3 and in first place in the AFC South, while the Packers are fighting for their playoff lives at 4-6.
Green Bay was a slight home favorite here, with a fairly low 41 total. These are the two slowest paced teams (based on neutral situations) in the league, so live betting will revolve around trying to find situations where somebody picks things up — or opportunities to take the under.
We'll also take a look at how each team matches up based on DVOA, to see if any game scripts line up in a way conducive to more or less scoring.
Here's how we're live betting Titans-Packers on Thursday Night Football.
The Live Bet We've Made on Thursday Night Football
Overs With a Titans Lead — LIVE BET MADE
As mentioned above, there weren't really any scenarios that would lead this game to speed up considerably. Both teams play slow in effectively all scenarios.
However, that was baked into the pregame total. Despite reasonably competent offenses by DVOA, 41 is a pretty low mark. In theory, that could give us some fairly big edges on the over.
Green Bay is rebranding themselves as a run-first offense, with a bottom-10 pass rate over expectation this year. However, from an efficiency standpoint, they should have a far easier time throwing the ball tonight.
The Titans defense is the NFL's toughest in rushing DVOA, while a reasonable 13th against the pass. The logic here is that Green Bay will want to keep it on the ground — but be forced to throw more heavily if they fall behind.
By the same token, this game — or all games when you have Derrick Henry — sets up better for Tennessee to run the ball. While we can safely expect them to do so regardless of game script, it's obviously better for them to be up.
It's not the most comfortable play, but with the Titans taking an 8-point lead shortly before halftime, we're going to take the live over of 41.5 at FanDuel. Green Bay starts with the ball in the second half, so we should see a slightly faster pace of play for the next couple drives at a minimum. Let's hope the Packers passing attack finds a rhythm in the second half.
The Other Live Betting Scenarios We Were Watching For
Unders With a Packers Lead — Or Any Chance We Get
We buried the lede a bit by starting with an over scenario — unders are far more appealing here, between the snail's pace of both teams, the cold weather at Lambeau, and referee Bill Vinovich being assigned to the game. He has averaged the fewest penalties per game four years straight. which helps defenses; unders have gone 38-21 in his assignments in that time frame.
As in the above scenario, all of that is baked into the total — at least at pregame. That's why we'll be looking for an excuse to catch a higher number, or find a scenario that makes scoring even less likely.
The former could come with a fluky play or two, like a big Derrick Henry run or deep shot to Christian Watson. Those things could drive up the total while being unlikely to happen multiple times.
Additionally, a close game — or the Packers getting in front — puts both teams on the wrong end of their efficiency splits. Green Bay should play fairly run heavy as long as they can, with that being a tough road against the Titans run defense. On the Titans side, taking the ball from Derrick Henry and giving it to Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to be a good thing for their offense.
Given our lean toward the under, this side requires far less discretion. We'll be looking to bet it anytime the total moves up from the pregame 41, or anytime Green Bay gets out to a significant lead. While we'd like to avoid betting numbers lower than the pregame line, we can make an exception here if the situation calls for it.
Player Props
This game might be a better one from a player prop standpoint. Packers passing props are all fairly low — based on their run-first approach last week — so that's where my broader interest will be.
Rodgers attempts and yards both could be valuable if the Packers fall behind. Green Bay should be fairly efficient in throwing the ball. At the same time, that would be a good situation to bet on Derrick Henry and the Titans rushing attack.
If it goes the other way and Tennessee controls things, we could look to unders on Henry props. The better bet is likely on attempts, since Henry could take one to the house at any point.
While the Titans will still feed him plenty of touches, Green Bay being able to control time of possession will make it hard for him to see massive volume with a deficit.
Of course, "Dr. Nick" has us in capable hands when looking at player props. At halftime of Thursday and Monday Night Football each week, my predictive analytics colleague Nick Giffen is live on "Bet What Happens Live With Dr. Nick!"
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
