The Colts and Steelers are squared off in what we expected to be a defensive battle on Monday Night Football. This game had a total of just 39.5, with the Colts as slight favorites.
Fortunately, the Steelers present one of our personal favorite live betting opportunities, so at least had a reason to watch this one.
Without further ado, let's dive in.
The Live Bet To Watch For on Monday Night Football
Second Half Overs In A Close Game — LIVE BET MADE
The Steelers' first vs. second half splits have settled in a bit this season, but they're still playing nearly two seconds quicker in the second halves of games. With the Colts being roughly neutral, that's the first good sign for this contest.
These teams also play at their quickest (relative to the rest of the league) in close games. They both rank inside the top-10 when games are within seven points, but 16th or lower when trailing or leading by more than a score.
Ideally, we were hoping for a lower line heading into the locker rooms than was posted before the game. With that said, we had some flexibility on either side of halftime if the line fell enough.
While the Colts being down 13 doesn't fit the "close game" scenario we were hoping for, the live total of 38.5 is low enough where we'll hold our nose and pull the trigger. Hopefully the Colts — who get the ball to start the second half — are able to get something going offensively. Over 38.5 -115 at DraftKings is the bet.
Outside of that, the only things to watch for were player props. At halftime of Thursday and Monday Night Football each week, my predictive analytics colleague Nick Giffen is live on "Bet What Happens Live With Dr. Nick!" He'll cover props, and possibly join us with a total bet as well.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
