The "some football is better than no football" crowd has had their resolve tested in a major way this season, with plenty of lackluster primetime offerings. This week is no different, with the Chargers — sans Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams — taking on the AOC-led Raiders.
Still, we said that last week, and were pleasantly surprised with a Steelers vs. Patriots game that turned out to be fun. Maybe we'll get a repeat this week, or at least a good live betting spot. Pregame, Las Vegas is favored by three, with a 34.5 over/under.
NFL Live Betting for Thursday Night Football
Chargers at Raiders: Unders, Probably? — LIVE BET MADE, Under 44.5 (-120, DraftKings)
Technically, this was the one scenario where we might have looked for an over — with the Raiders up 14-0. But the Chargers having lost two fumbles is a big part of the reason that we're here, and as fluky as that is, we'll take this inflated under and count on things normalizing the rest of this game.
Here's how we previewed live betting before this game before kickoff:
While the 34.5-point total isn't quite as low as we saw last week — which set a 30-year low — it's pretty close. We obviously aren't expecting a ton of scoring given the two quarterbacks at play and Allen's absence further dampens the Chargers chances offensively.
It's also not a game where any specific scenario leads to increased scoring from either team. In fact, from a DVOA standpoint, every defensive unit from each team is better than the opposing offensive unit. That includes the Chargers' passing attack, which will be even worse than the numbers indicate with Easton Stick running the offense, and both of their top receivers unavailable.
All of which points to a "unders at all costs" scenario. As does the pace, at least with the likeliest outcome. This game is projected to play slower than average if it remains within one score in either direction. While either team getting out to a big lead should speed things up, the three-point spread suggests that's fairly unlikely.
Obviously, we'll be hoping for some shenanigans that push the total up from the pregame 34.5 — otherwise we'd just bet this line pregame. Even in the absence of that, we'd still consider the under around halftime if the live total is projecting a second half of more than 17 or so points.
The only possible over scenario would be a big Raiders lead. That projects to play the fastest, and the Raiders' rushing offense has, at times, outperformed their lowly DVOA ranking when Josh Jacobs gets rolling. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, though.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
