After a very successful 2-0 Saturday, we've been right back at it on Sunday with our NFL live betting. As usual, the plan was to pick a game from each time slot to target.
Sometimes, though, things don't work out. We passed twice for the first time all season, as the game scripts early Sunday didn't go our way. That changed on Sunday Night Football, though.
Here's how we were looking to live bet Giants vs. Commanders on Sunday night in Week 15.
The Live Betting Scenarios to Watch For on Sunday Night Football
Sunday Night Football: Any Excuse For Unders — LIVE BET MADE
There's not a single scenario between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders that should lead to a game that's faster than league average. Whether that's either team up by seven or more, or a close game: they all play slow.
Of course, that's baked into the pregame total of 40.5. That's a pretty low number, even between two offenses that don't exactly inspire confidence.
Thus, we were waiting for a better line or situation at some point. The dream scenario was a pick-six, broken play, or some other fluky occurrence that drove the total up.
While it wasn't a crucial part of the analysis, bonus points if the Giants were in the lead. Washington is better defensively against the run, while the Giants are better against the pass — though neither split is extreme.
In a game where the teams have combined to average under four yards per play and to go 0-5 on third downs, we finally had a touchdown early in the second, from a Kayvon Thibodeaux fumble recovery. That’s exactly the kind of fluky scoring we were looking for to drive this live line up. Under 39.5 is -108 at FanDuel. That's our Sunday Night Football live bet.
The Live Betting Situations We Watched For Earlier in Week 15
Eagles-Bears: Second Half Unders
If you've read any of these before, you knew this one was coming. The Eagles have the biggest discrepancy in the NFL between first and second half scoring, as well as first vs. second half pace.
Generally, that's because they've been able to build solid leads early on, before leaning heavily on their run game to control the clock in the second half. Therefore, this angle is at its best when the Eagles are heavy favorites, which they were this week at -8.5.
While we're generally looking to bet this around halftime, any situation where the Eagles went up multiple touchdowns and the live total was higher than the pregame 48.5 points would do.
Unfortunately, in Week 15, we didn't get this opportunity.
Bengals-Buccaneers: Overs if the Bucs Trail
With Tampa Bay coming in as 3.5-point underdogs, we figured to be fairly likely to have a chance to bet this angle. It's a fairly straightforward one. Brady and the Bucs almost entirely abandon the run when playing from behind, leading to the quickest pace when trailing of any team in the NFL.
The Bengals do their part as well. While they play at the 23rd-fastest overall pace, they check in at 17th when leading by seven or more. While that's not a huge jump, combining the splits of these two teams means plays should happen about four seconds faster than average if Cincinnati goes up seven or more.
We were hopeful that lead could happen following a relatively slow start, driving the live total down from the 45-point pregame number. We knew we'd need to be flexible here though, as the ideal time to take this one could come at nearly any point in the game.
That didn't happen in the first half, and by the time Cincinnati flipped the script on Tampa Bay in the second half, an optimal live total was hard to come by.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
