NFL Live Betting Week 17: How We’re Live Betting Sunday Night Football

After the controversial ending to Lions vs Cowboys that ruined our live bet on Saturday, we have a full slate of games to choose from on Sunday for our NFL live betting in Week 17.

We'll start with one of the biggest games of the week in the 1 p.m. ET window, followed by another matchup that should have been big on paper later in the afternoon, capped by Packers vs Vikings in Sunday Night Football.

Let's get to the live betting scenarios.

NFL Live Betting for Week 17 Sunday Night Football

Packers at Vikings: Overs With a Packers Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Under 43.5 (-120, DraftKings)

Our interest in the over was largely based on the Packers' weak passing defense. That was before we realized the Vikings were going with Jaren Hall at quarterback, effectively waving the white flag on their 2023 season. It's gone about as you would expect, with their only points thanks to a 54-yard field goal. There's no real reason for Green Bay to attack much further with a big lead, so we'll take under 43.5 at -120 on DraftKings.

Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:

This angle is based almost entirely around the Packers passing defense, which ranks 30th in DVOA and has allowed 30 points in consecutive weeks to the Bucs and the Panthers.

Minnesota is a considerably better passing offense than either of those teams but will likely need the game script to cooperate to take a pass-first approach. They play slower than average with a lead, but faster than average when trailing.

On the Green Bay side, they play a hair faster than league average when leading, though they're likelier to have success throwing than running against the Vikings. This is basically a wash, though the hope would be Green Bay stays aggressive when playing from in front, knowing they'll need to keep putting up points with their struggling defense.

This isn't the likeliest scenario as the Packers are slight underdogs here, but it's the strongest one from a live betting standpoint. If Minnesota controls the game we could consider the under, but the theoretical edge is smaller. The pregame total is 43, and we'd certainly need a jump in that number before taking an under bet here.

Our NFL Live Bets From Earlier

Dolphins at Ravens: LIVE BET MADE: Over 64.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

We had 41 first-half points in Baltimore and now have a live total of 64.5 that requires just 24 more points to cash. Tyreek Hill and the Dolphins' offense look fine, and a Hill bobble in the end zone turned an easy touchdown into a field goal for Miami. We'll take over 64.5 at -110 on FanDuel.

Here's how we analyzed this live-betting opportunity pregame:

This game has a fairly low total considering the offenses involved, with a moderate 46.5 pregame line. There are some extenuating circumstances though, with Miami missing two of their top offensive players in Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle. On top of that, Tyreek Hill still looks to be less than 100% with an ankle injury, so Miami's offense has the potential to totally fall flat here.

That scenario obviously correlates with Baltimore controlling the game. It also correlates with a slower-paced contest, as Baltimore plays at the sixth-slowest pace when leading by at least a touchdown, while Miami — in a fairly limited sample size — plays slow when trailing relative to the rest of the league.

While the Dolphins obviously have an explosive offense and can score on limited play volume, that's tough to do against the elite defense of the Ravens — especially when Baltimore can sell out to cover a potentially-limited Hill.

The hope here is that the Ravens have a couple of big plays early and drive the total up before the market catches up to the fact that Miami is struggling on offense. It's also important to watch this game to see if there's some angles the scoreboard isn't telling us. We'll be keeping an eye on the snap count and general performance of Hill, as he's the key to the Dolphins offense this week.

If this game stays close, there's potential to take an over here, but it's tricky. We wouldn't feel comfortable taking any overs if Miami is struggling to move the ball, nor would we want to take a higher number than the pregame line. The odds of threading that particular needle (Miami looks good and it's low scoring) are slim, but worth mentioning.

Bengals at Chiefs: Under With a Hot Start — LIVE BET MADE: Under 50.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

We have the hot start we were looking for in Bengals vs. Chiefs, with Cincinnati holding a 10-7 lead early in the second quarter. That lead has driven the total up above 50. We've also seen Tee Higgins exit with an injury, which should limit the Bengals' offense the rest of the way. We'll take under 50.5 at -110 on FanDuel.

Here's how we analyzed this live-betting opportunity pregame:

This game projects to play about three seconds slower than average with either team in the lead, as both play well slower than average in all scenarios. While these teams rank first and second in pass rate over expectation (PROE) on the season, Patrick Mahomes ranks 29th in average intended air yards among qualifiers, while Joe Burrow ranked 30th before being lost to the season with an injury.

Obviously it's Jake Browning under center for the Bengals and not Burrow, but would you really expect a more aggressive approach with Browning? Especially against the Chiefs pass defense, which ranks fifth in DVOA and first in adjusted sack rate on the season.

All of which means the offensive outlook in this one is pretty bad, with both teams likely to dink and dunk their way down the field rather than attack aggressively.

What we'll be looking for is a broken play or two, a defensive touchdown, or any other fluky occurrence to drive up the pregame total of 44.5. If we see that number jump significantly we'll take it — almost regardless of how we got there.

How We Approach Live Betting in General

The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.

The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application iswe're obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.

Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.

Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.