There are two games on Saturday in the final week of the NFL season, with the Ravens taking on the Steelers in the early window and the Colts facing the Texans in the night game for the AFC South crown.
We'll be focusing only on the late game this time. With Baltimore resting their starters, it's hard to come to any solid conclusions about their play calling. The data we've collected all year has little bearing on how they'll approach this one.
NFL Live Betting for Saturday Night Football in Week 18
Texans at Colts: Overs With a Texans Lead (And Maybe Without One) — LIVE BET MADE, Over 43.5 (-115, DraftKings)
The lack of offensive production from the Colts is concerning, but the Texans went up 14-3 just after the two-minute warning and the total dropped to 43.5. We'll reluctantly stick with our original read and bank on increased offense moving forward and take the over 43.5 at -115 on DraftKings.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -106 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
This game projects to play fast in every situation, with both teams ranking in the top five in overall pace,and top 10 in the vast majority of game situation splits. Of course, that's baked into the pregame total of 47.5, so we're unlikely to find an edge there.
When we look at the unit-specific matchups, a Houston lead plays out considerably better for overs than any other scenario, though. That's primarily thanks to the Texans' heavy pass-funnel defense. They rank second in DVOA against the run but 23rd against the pass. Conversely, the Colts are somewhat better in pass defense — though that's balanced by how bad Houston is at running the ball.
The Texans' defensive splits are critical here, because both teams actually have negative pass rate over expectation (PROE) numbers, despite their quick pace. That's somewhat unusual and suggests Indy needs some cajoling (by way of the scoreboard) in order to adopt a pass-heavy approach.
Of course, if Houston falls behind or this one stays close with a total that's dipped significantly, we'll still be on the over. The operative word there is significantly, since the line is mostly accounting for the fast pace already. We'd be fine with the over at basically nay number if the Texans go up big, but will be targeting lines under 40 in other scenarios.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
