The majority of NFL teams have shown us enough at this point that we can be confident in how they approach various situations when it comes to our NFL live betting. There are still some outliers — teams that haven't spent much time leading or trailing by multiple scores — but on a busy Sunday, we can work around those spots.
We've got a game we're targeting in each of the time slots on Sunday, including the Sunday Night Football game between the Giants and Bills. Here's how we're NFL live betting in Week 6.
NFL Live Betting for Week 6 Sunday Night Football
Giants at Bills: Unders With the Giants Trailing, Overs if They Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 25.5 (FanDuel, -110)
Lines are a bit varied at halftime of Sunday Night Football, with as low as 25.5 on FanDuel and as high as 27.5 on DraftKings. We have this one playing faster with the Giants in the lead, and they get the ball to start the second half with a chance to extend the lead. We'll reluctantly take the over at FanDuel at -110, assuming the Bills are able to get something going in the second half. If you are making your live bet there, be sure to use our FanDuel promo code, too.
Here's how we previewed the live betting scenario for this game before kickoff:
This one is fairly straightforward. In years past, the Bills were one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league. They'd use short passes as their running game, staying aggressive deep into games regardless of the score.
That's no longer the case, with Buffalo outside of the top-five in the league in PROE. They play things fairly straight, with one of the slowest paces while leading, and one of the fastest from behind. They're more effective throwing than running, which further shifts the scoring from Buffalo to scenarios where the game stays close or they fall behind.
On the Giants side, they play slightly slower than league average in all scenarios, which leaves the Bills as the primary deciders of the speed here. New York has been fairly equally ineffective offensively when running or passing, with offensive DVOA ranks of 30th (rushing) and 32nd (passing). However, they've been without star running back Saquon Barkley since Week 2. With Barkley expected back, it's reasonable to assume the ground game should improve.
Similar to the other New York team, the quarterback play and overall passing attack has been so bad that it's hard to expect much scoring if they have to shift to a pass-heavy approach. That supports taking the under with the Bills in control — by far the likeliest scenario.
We're hoping for an early explosion from the Bills that drives the total up from the pregame 44. If Buffalo goes up multiple scores and the total cracks 50, we can pull the trigger no matter how early in the game we are. We'll be a bit more picky with a Giants lead, though. We'd need a reason to believe that scenario sticks for more than a drive or two before making a bet.
The Live Bets We've Already Made in Week 6
Panthers at Dolphins: Overs With a Dolphins Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 58.5 (-114, FanDuel)
58.5 points feels like a high total, but we've already had 35 points in the first half. Carolina's offense has played well, and the Dolphins — who get the ball to start the second half — will certainly want a couple more scores before easing off the gas. This one fits our pregame scenario, and the best line is -114 on FanDuel.
Here's how we previewed the live betting scenario for this game before kickoff:
For the second week in a row, the Panthers are big underdogs. This time, it's a 14-point spread as they take on the explosive Dolphins offense. Just like last week, we're looking to target the over if and when the Panthers fall behind by multiple scores.
Much of that is due to how the Panthers approach things. Among teams with double-digit offensive plays called while trailing by multiple scores, they rank fourth-fastest in pace of play. They're a fairly adaptable offense who prefers to run the ball, but has no problem playing more aggressively when the scoreboard calls for it. With lead back Miles Sanders out for Week 6, that effect should be magnified this week.
They should also be able to find some success through the air. The Dolphins secondary is arguably their biggest weakness, and they rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass on the season. Sanders' replacement, Chuba Hubbard, is also more of a third down/receiving back than Sanders, which should make the passing game more effective.
The other part of the equation here is the Dolphins. As they showed in their 70-point drubbing of the Broncos, they're more than capable of running up the score even with a big lead. They're thin at running back with De'Von Achane on IR and Jeff Wilson Jr. yet to return, which could shift their approach even more pass heavy. Miami has played about a second faster than league average with a lead — made more notable by the magnitude of their leads at times this season.
Even if they attempt to run out the clock, they should still continue to score points. Carolina has the league's worst run defense by DVOA, and Dolphins last-RB-standing Raheem Mostert is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the young season.
Obviously we'd love to catch this bet at a lower number than the pregame 47.5 However, it's more about how far above the line is than the current score. If Miami takes a 24-7 lead into the half, we'd be more than happy taking the over to the mid-50s, for example.
From a pace standpoint, this one also skews to the over in a close game — though live lines will likely more than compensate for that. Surprisingly, if the unlikely scenario of a Panthers lead is to transpire, we're showing value on the under. That would be a scary selection with the Dolphins offense, and be highly dependent on the overall game situation.
Eagles at Jets: Unders In the Second Half, Unless It's Close — LIVE BET MADE, Over 43.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
The 14-9 lead for the Eagles qualifies more as a "close game" than an Eagles lead. The total of 43.5 means we're just three touchdowns away from cashing the over, and the Jets have moved the ball well before settling for three field goals.
Expect the Eagles to continue to push until they're up a couple more scores, starting with the first drive of the third quarter, where they have possession. The best line is on FanDuel. If you are making your live bet there, be sure to use our FanDuel promo code, too.
Here's how we previewed the live betting scenario for this game before kickoff:
The Eagles aren't quite as committed to their past strategy of taking the air out of the ball when playing from in front this season. However, they're still more than a second slower than the league average when leading by eight or more, and have a roughly league-average pass rate over expectation (PROE).
Some of that is because they haven't been quite as dominant as they were last season. While they've started the season 5-0, just one of those games finished with a double-digit victory. Even then, they didn't lead by multiple scores until the final four minutes of the game, so they didn't spend much time in clock-killing mode.
We expect that to change this week, with the Eagles favored by seven on the road in New York. It's fairly likely they control this game at some point, and switch to eating the clock behind their run game.
On the Jets side of the ball, they've been around a full second slower when trailing this season, with a bottom-ten PROE in the NFL. Both of those numbers are likely born out of an unwillingness to trust Zach Wilson. He's played better in recent weeks, but is still extremely mistake prone.
That same distrust of Wilson is a big part of why we like the under with the Eagles leading. It's hard to see the Jets doing much to catch up against a tough Philadelphia defense with the ball in Wilson's hand.
The one exception to this angle would be if the game stayed close. Both teams are fairly aggressive in close games, and it projects to play more than two seconds quicker on average while the score is within a touchdown on either side. If we're looking at the over, ideally it would come with the Jets carrying a slight lead.
This time we will be fairly picky with the line we take, needing an improvement (in either direction) from the pregame 42.5 depending on the scenario.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
