There was enough optimism around the Sean Payton-led Broncos in the offseason to make the Week 6 Thursday Night Showdown between Denver and Kansas City look compelling when it was made. As you probably know, that's no longer the case.
Kansas City is favored by 11 at home against Denver, which has a near-historically bad defense against the pass. That's obviously a poor setup when facing the Patrick-Mahomes-led Chiefs. With a game total of 47, we're expecting a higher-scoring affair, but mostly just from Kansas City.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 6
Chiefs vs. Broncos: Over With a Chiefs Lead Or Close Game — LIVE BET MADE, Over 33.5 (FanDuel)
So far, this game has given us a turnover on downs in enemy territory, a field goal and interception from the red zone, plus a failed fourth down conversion inside enemy territory. It's been the epitome of "fewer points than there should have been," with just three points at this point. The total had dropped two touchdowns from the pregame line, and we'll take this over 33.5.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
At first glance, this feels like a classic "Wait for the blowout and take the under" spot. We've done well in those situations in the past, but it's a very team-specific angle. Teams like the Eagles switch to a much slower approach once they build a big lead — the Chiefs don't.
In fact, their average pace of play while leading by eight or more is roughly the NFL average pace under all situations. Kansas City also has the second-highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league, showing a willingness to put the ball in Mahomes' hands regardless of the scoreboard. With Denver having such a dreadful passing defense, it wouldn't be a shock for the Chiefs to emulate the Dolphins a few weeks ago and keep piling on points against the Broncos.
On the Broncos side, they've also played about a second faster than the average team while trailing by multiple scores. We can trust that stat, too, as they've had ample opportunity to show how they want to play when trailing big. The matchup isn't ideal for Denver when they're chasing points — the Chiefs are better defensively against the pass — but it's not bad enough to tip us away from wanting to bet the over.
As always, the dream scenario is some drives that should've ended in more points than they did, with the Chiefs in control and the total dropped from the pregame 47 or so. Missed field goals, drives stalled in the red zone, and turnovers in opponent territory are the types of things that make this even stronger. We won't be especially picky, though. If Kansas City is up big at halftime with the total driven up, we could still take a shot here.
A close game follows similar logic, as both teams should continue to throw the ball. The only potential pivot here would be an unexpected Broncos lead. We anticipate they'd slow things down considerably if they got in front — though that's fairly unlikely to transpire.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
