Week 6 comes to a close with an AFC West battle between the Broncos and Chargers. This game had a moderate 45.5 total pregame, as the Chargers' explosive offense faces a Broncos team that has both scored and allowed the fewest points in the AFC.
With five weeks of data behind us, I've switched my model over entirely to 2022 stats, although there are a few notable exceptions for teams that haven't had much action either up or down by more than a score. The Broncos are one of those teams, as we'll get into later.
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
The Monday Night Football Live Bets We've Made on Broncos-Chargers
Live Betting the Spread — LIVE BET MADE
One potential implication of these teams' respective defensive strengths is the inability for a trailing team to catch up. With both pass defenses being strong, it's far easier to hold a lead then regain one.
After a few near-bets early, the Chargers tied the game at 10-10 with roughly a minute left to play in the first half. This pushed the spread to Broncos +2.5. Denver will effectively have the next two possessions, though, as they get the ball after halftime, and coupled with our Luck Rankings preferring the Broncos, Denver is the live bet here at +2.5. They were roughly +4 underdogs coming in, and by my estimation, consecutive possessions are worth more than two points to the spread.
(And yes, this is our first live spread bet of the season!)
Player Props — LIVE BET MADE
With our props tool not showing a ton of pregame value, live player props weren't a big focus on Monday night.
However, Austin Ekeler had just 20 rushing in the first half. Additionally, the Broncos get the ball to start the third quarter. That limits the amount of time the Chargers will have the ball in the second half, and raises the odds that they're playing with a bigger deficit.
We'll place a live bet on Ekeler under 47.5 rushing yards for the game based on those factors.
The Other Monday Night Football Live Betting Scenarios to Watch For in Broncos-Chargers
Overs With Either Team Up Big, Unders in a Close Game
This game presented a complicated situation. The Broncos have hardly possessed the ball while leading by seven or more this season, leading to their pace mark being under 10 seconds. And when they did have a big lead, they obviously weren't running a hurry up — the only time that happened was when they were trying to kill the clock and their opponent was calling time outs.
Fortunately, Broncos head coach Nate Hackett spent the last few seasons as the Packers offensive coordinator, so we can lean on Green Bay's data to supplement what we've seen this year. Based on that, this game should play fairly slow as long as it remains close. Both teams play nearly two seconds slower (relative to their overall pace) when the game is within six points.
Both are comfortable opening things up when trailing, however, shifting the value to the over if either takes a significant lead. The two teams rank sixth (Broncos) and fourth (Chargers) when playing from behind this season.
As usual, I'll be looking for situations — at any point in the game — that fit this analysis and have a favorable total. The pregame line is 45.5, so look for significant (three or more points) movement in either direction. If you spot it — and the game script is right — pull the trigger.
