The Saints host the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football, with Jacksonville coming into the game as the leaders of the AFC South, and New Orleans half a game back in the NFC South.
That makes it one of the more compelling Thursday night contests we've had in recent weeks on paper. However, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is dealing with an ankle injury, and he was a true game time decision based on how he feels during warmups tonight.
Jaguars HC Doug Pederson told me Trevor Lawrence will start tonight.
Lawrence just finished his 20-minute pregame workout where he showed good lateral movement making cuts and throwing on the run. He dapped up trainers + QB Mike McCoy with smile headed back into locker room. pic.twitter.com/CDV5prPTeu
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) October 19, 2023
With a current line of the Saints -2.5 and a total of just 40.5, the market seems to be expressing some pessimism about his ability to play well, but we'll obviously need to factor his performance into any live betting decisions we make tonight.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 7
Saints vs. Jaguars: Unders With a Saints Lead, and Possibly the Opposite — LIVE BET MADE, Over 42.5 (-120, FanDuel)
We said we'd be picky about taking the over in this game. Despite the total rising slightly to 42.5, the game we've seen so far certainly qualifies. The Saints have kicked two field goals in the redzone, missed a third field goal, and turned over the ball in Jaguars territory. That's far too much production to just have six points, which in theory should regress in the second half. Additionally, Trevor Lawrence is playing and playing well, so Jacksonville should continue to contribute to the scoring. The best line is -120 at FanDuel.
Here's how we previewed the live betting scenarios for this game before kickoff:
There isn't a ton of pace-based edge to be found in this one. By the numbers, this game plays faster with a Jaguars lead and slower with a Saints lead. However, Jacksonville has somehow played faster with a multi-score lead than in close games this season — which is likely more of a statistical fluke than anything highly predictive.
However, the way these teams matchup defensively also tilts us in this direction. The Saints come into the game ranked 7th in DVOA against the pass but 13th against the run, while the Jaguars are 6th against the run and 10th against the pass. While those aren't huge differences, it paints a picture of more efficient offensive play with the Saints throwing and the Jaguars running.
Since that's the inverse of how these teams want to play — New Orleans has a negative pass rate over expectation while Jacksonville is solidly positive — that makes the under a bit more appealing. It's somewhat likely that both team's approach will be playing into their oppositions strengths on defense, even if the scoreboard is pushing them the other direction.
The best-case scenario might be Lawrence active but clearly less than 100%, as that's harder for books to price in than if he's on the bench.
Ideally the Saints get a few quick scores and drive the total up, in which case we'll be quick on the draw here, especially if Lawrence looks off. On the other hand, we'd need a big discount from the pregame total before considering the over, so we'll be a bit more picky and patient there.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
