NFL Week 7 Sunday is upon us, and with it comes another opportunity for NFL live betting.
Here are the live betting situations we're watching for in NFL Week 7 on Sunday as well as the live bets we've already made.
How We Approach Live Betting Generally
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame
On Sundays, coming in with a plan on a few key spots is critical. With all of the games happening at once, we can be picky in terms of finding scenarios we like. That's paid off for us so far; now, it's time for Sunday Night Football.
The Sunday Night Football Live Betting Scenario to Watch For in Steelers-Dolphins
Anyone who's been following this column all season knew this one was coming. The Steelers' inexplicable first/second half pace splits have continued into 2022. They rank sixth in pace of play in the second half but 20th in the first.
I'm on the first half under for this game, which naturally leads to potential value on live overs (assuming, as we should, that the pregame total is roughly efficient). If this one gets off to a slow start, we could easily see a total in the 30s by the end of the first quarter.
Defensively, both teams are worse against the pass than they are the run, but Miami much more so. That means the over holds more value if it's Pittsburgh that's forced to pass — so the Dolphins in the lead.
That tracks nicely with my expectations from a pace scenario as well. Of the three situations I consider (either team up by seven or more, game within seven points) the quickest expectation is when the Dolphins have the lead.
I'd avoid going after Steelers passing props though. They've played a bit of musical quarterback this year, so any edge we might have on, say, Kenny Pickett yardage overs is completely consumed by the risk of a benching. That benching is of course more likely when the Steelers are trailing.
Our props tool is showing some value on Najee Harris overs, which would increase if Pittsburgh gets out in front. That's where I'll be looking if Pittsburgh plays well.
Of course, player props will be covered extensively on Bet What Happens Live With Dr. Nick at halftime of this one, so check back in at intermission to see where the value is.
The Live Bets We Already Made in Week 7
Bengals-Falcons: Unders if the Bengals Take Control — LIVE BET MADE
With the Bengals favored by roughly a touchdown, this was the likeliest scenario for this game. It was also my favorite, for a few reasons.
First is the pace splits. Atlanta plays at the 26th fastest pace when trailing by seven or more points. They've been both unwilling to throw the ball and ineffective when forced to this season. That gives them very little ability to hurry up when trailing.
On the Bengals side, they're almost exactly league average (16th) in pace when playing with a lead. However, the Falcons' 25th-ranked rush defense means they should have an easier time controlling the clock in this one.
Similarly, the Bengals are much tougher in pass defense (8th) than they are against the run (16th), which means it should be tough sledding for the Falcons if they have to chase points.
With the Bengals taking a 14-0 lead, the live total jumped to 55 on DraftKings. This fits exactly what we were looking for in betting an under heading into the game. Cincinnati should continue to dominate the time of possession and move the ball effectively on the ground.
And dominate the Bengals did, en route to a quick 35-17 lead. Honestly, this one felt lost. But somehow, after Cincinnati marched down to the Atlanta goal line with under a minute remaining, we cashed when the Bengals were gifted a first down and kneeled out the clock.
This one is more about looking for any excuse to take an over at a better line than it is a specific live scenario. The 49-point total is on the low side by Chiefs standards, and they're averaging nearly 30 points per game themselves.
The reasoning of course is that the 49ers have a tough defense, and also play slow, ball-control football. That's mostly true, but the 49ers are incredibly banged up defensively. They allowed 28 points to Atlanta last week and are still dealing with man of the same injuries.
The slow part is true as well — except when they're trailing by seven or more. San Francisco ranks 29th in overall pace, 27th in situation neutral pace, 29th in close games … and 15th when playing from a seven or more point deficit.
The Chiefs offense is likely to continue to throw regardless of game script until late into this one, so it sets up nicely for a lot of action with the Chiefs in front.
The total held reasonably close to the opening mark of 49, with a 50.5 at DraftKings heading into halftime, and we made that live bet. We liked this over better with the Chiefs in front, and they are. While the lead was only one point, they also receive the second half kickoff, raising the chance they’ll continue to play with a lead in the second half. This game was also already well above half way there, with only 24 more points needed to cash the over.
