Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 7.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-5-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-59-6 (63.1%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 7.
NFL Week 7 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38.57% | |
| 2 | 18.78% | |
| 3 | 18.65% | |
| 4 | 17.51% | |
| 5 | 13.61% | |
| 6 | 13.30% | |
| 7 | 12.15% | |
| 8 | 5.89% | |
| 9 | 5.22% | |
| 10 | 5.07% | |
| 11 | 3.29% | |
| 12 | 3.11% | |
| 13 | 2.62% | |
| 14 | 1.36% | |
| 15 | 1.26% | |
| 16 | -0.51% | |
| 17 | -2.51% | |
| 18 | -3.16% | |
| 19 | -3.76% | |
| 20 | -4.37% | |
| 21 | -5.52% | |
| 22 | -5.63% | |
| 23 | -5.92% | |
| 24 | -7.09% | |
| 25 | -8.98% | |
| 26 | -10.78% | |
| 27 | -12.93% | |
| 28 | -14.19% | |
| 29 | -14.94% | |
| 30 | -19.76% | |
| 31 | -20.34% | |
| 32 | -27.66% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers remain in the top spot after a Week 6 bye. They rank as the third-luckiest team of the last six years through six weeks.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals enter the top three for the first time this year after scoring the second-luckiest win in Week 6. That's in no small part thanks to the Seahawks coming away with just three points on four second-half drives that made it inside the Bengals' 10-yard line.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs had their second straight unlucky game, but they remain in the top three by virtue of their first three games, all of which had luckier scorelines than expected. However, their Luck% has declined from 37.4% to 18.6% thanks to the two most recent unlucky scorelines.
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The Unluckiest Teams
29. Seattle Seahawks
We're expanding the unlucky list to four this week because the Seahawks are an interesting case.
Seattle was the third-most unlucky team in Week 1 and the second-most unlucky team last week. Seattle also ranks fifth in Expected Win Percentage by our Expected Score metric, ahead of teams like the Bills, Dolphins and Eagles.
A large reason for that is facing one of the league's easiest schedules to date. Seattle has faced the third-easiest schedule by DVOA, which is why its expected win percentage is so high, but it ranks just 10th in overall DVOA.
However, this is still a surprisingly good – and unlucky – team so far.
30. Cleveland Browns
The Browns were a whisker away from meeting our criteria last week as an unlucky team against the 49ers. The Browns not only covered the 9.5 points they were given but won outright by a 19-17 scoreline. In fact, they were a bit unlucky not to win by more, as our Expected Score pegged them as 22-15 winners.
31. Carolina Panthers
The last winless team remains just that, suffering a 42-21 defeat at the hands of the Dolphins. Carolina will gladly take this bye week to try to right the ship. The Panthers are dead last in Expected Win Percentage by our Expected Score metric, but that still means they should only be a 1-5 team instead of 0-6.
32. Chicago Bears
The Bears suffered the week's worst defeat at the hands of the Vikings. Most notably, the Bears' offensive success rate (48.4%) was nearly 7% better than the Vikings' (40.7%).
That success led to five of the Bears' six second-half drives reaching Minnesota territory. However, Chicago only came away with seven points, which was well below expectation.
