The Action Network's Predictive Analytics team has been monitoring a new metric of analysis throughout the season – the NFL Luck Rankings.
This metric was developed in an effort to find a measure of quantification behind luck in the league and how it can aid in handicapping NFL spreads and totals.
Based on this metric, we can estimate how "lucky" a team has been this year. That includes factors such as one-score wins, expected win percentage and one-field-goal records, among other things.
Read on to see which teams were deemed most fortunate, and who was the most unlucky based on our Luck Rankings metric.
NFL Luck Rankings
According to the Luck Rankings metric, it was a wildly fortunate year for the NFC East, which contained the three luckiest teams in the league.
The Giants won four more games than expected based on the metric, while the Cowboys won 3.83 more games than expected and the Eagles took home 3.37 more victories than expected.
Behind Philly is a Minnesota team that lost two games in some of the biggest blowouts of the year but still managed to win 13 games. The Vikings won 2.51 more games than expected.
Luckiest NFL Teams of the 2022 Regular Season
| Team | Win Total | Over/Under Expected Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Giants | 9 | 4.00 |
| Cowboys | 12 | 3.83 |
| Eagles | 14 | 3.37 |
| Vikings | 13 | 2.51 |
| Panthers | 7 | 2.37 |
| Chiefs | 14 | 2.21 |
| Titans | 7 | 1.63 |
| Seahawks | 9 | 1.63 |
| Bills | 13 | 1.17 |
The biggest over-performer in the AFC was Kansas City, who won 2.21 games over expected and secured the No. 1 seed in the conference.
The Bills – the No. 2 team in the AFC – were the third-most fortunate team in the conference, winning 1.17 more games than they were expected to win.
In terms of teams that were on the opposite end of the luck spectrum, the Bears were at the top of the unlucky list.
Chicago lost 2.8 more games than expected, making them more unlucky than the Colts, who lost 2.62 more games than expected.
No team that made the playoffs was among the eight most unlucky teams of the regular season, but the 49ers actually lost 0.46 more games than expected, meaning they should have won even more than the 13 games they amassed.
Unluckiest NFL Teams of the 2022 Regular Season
| Team | Win Total | Over/Under Expected Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bears | 3 | -2.80 |
| Colts | 4 | -2.62 |
| Saints | 7 | -2.51 |
| Browns | 7 | -2.42 |
| Broncos | 5 | -2.19 |
| Packers | 8 | -1.35 |
| Texans | 3 | -1.25 |
| Jets | 7 | -1.24 |
Be sure to follow along as the Predictive Analytics team provides you with the best Luck Rankings-based plays to make throughout the postseason.
