NFL Luck Rankings Predictions: Previewing All 4 Divisional Round Games
The regular season was a successful one for NFL Luck Rankings predictions.
- Unlucky teams in Luck Matchups that met one of our three criteria were 14-10-2 (57.7%) against the spread (ATS).
- Luck Unders were 30-19-1 (61.0%) to the under.
- Luck Overs were 6-1-0 (85.7%) to the over.
Overall, a bet on any luck-based side or total ended with a 50-30-3 (62.0%) record. Betting to win $100 each at -110 odds equates to a $1,700 profit and a 20.5% return on investment over 83 total bets.
The Luck Rankings have proved effective in betting on the NFL Playoffs, as well, especially on totals. Of course, you must always consider other factors than just the rankings, but they're a great resource to start with when handicapping your sides and totals for the playoffs.
In fact, the Luck Rankings went 5-1 last weekend. Buffalo covered as the unlucky team in the Luck Matchup against Pittsburgh. Three of the four Luck Unders stayed under, and the only Luck Over did indeed go over.
This weekend we have two of the four Divisional Round games that involve a luck-based play. Let's dive in.
Divisional Round Luck Rankings Breakdown
The Luck Difference of nine places and the Luck Gap of 11.1% is not enough to back either side simply based on the Luck Rankings. In addition, the Luck Total of -0.6 means there's no significant edge on the total. Thus, based purely on our luck angle, there's no play on this game.
Verdict: Nothing
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There is a luck-based play on this one, but it's not on a side since the Luck Difference of 15 and Luck Gap of 8.0% isn't enough to justify a play on San Francisco as the unlucky team here.
However, the Luck Total of +2.8 is enough to meet our playoff criteria of a Luck Total of at least +1.0 or higher. I took over 49.5 earlier in the week and would definitely still take over 50 at bet365 or over 50.5 at most other shops.
Pick: Over 50 (bet365)
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Once again, there's no play on the side with Detroit just two places behind the Buccaneers in our post-Wild Card Round Luck Rankings.
However, the Luck Total of -2.7 is enough to back the under here, but with 89% of the money coming in on the over, I'm content to wait this out until closer to kickoff before taking the under. The line has moved at some books from 48.5 to as high as 49.5 in the past 24 hours, and I expect the full market to move upward still based on the heavy over money.
However, if we see any movement downward, it's time to pounce on the under.
Lean: Under; wait until kickoff for market to go up
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Like the Texans-Ravens game, there's no luck-based play here. Buffalo is just three places behind Kansas City in the Luck Rankings, and the Luck Total of +0.4 isn't enough to take the over just based on luck.
Verdict: Nothing
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