Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings are in for the final time this season, as we take a look at the luckiest and unluckiest teams in the NFL for the 2023-24 regular season, and preview the luck metrics of the playoff teams.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
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NFL Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17.88% | |
| 2 | 13.05% | |
| 3 | 12.95% | |
| 4 | 11.84% | |
| 5 | 10.15% | |
| 6 | 8.87% | |
| 7 | 7.72% | |
| 8 | 7.64% | |
| 9 | 7.14% | |
| 10 | 3.92% | |
| 11 | 1.32% | |
| 12 | 0.21% | |
| 13 | 0.21% | |
| 14 | -0.83% | |
| 15 | -1.29% | |
| 16 | -1.83% | |
| 17 | -2.22% | |
| 18 | -2.45% | |
| 19 | -2.68% | |
| 20 | -2.77% | |
| 21 | -3.34% | |
| 22 | -4.49% | |
| 23 | -4.98% | |
| 24 | -5.16% | |
| 25 | -5.97% | |
| 26 | -5.98% | |
| 27 | -6.59% | |
| 28 | -7.28% | |
| 29 | -8.94% | |
| 30 | -10.8% | |
| 31 | -13.38% | |
| 32 | -13.53% |
