Our Action Network Luck Rankings are in for Week 12 and we have nine matchups featuring teams at least 10 places apart.
The unlucky teams from the Action Network Luck Rankings are 71-58-3 (54.9%) against the spread (ATS) overall. That improves to 37-29-1 (56.0%) when teams differ by at least 10 places and 20-15 (57.1%) when the difference is 16 or more since we started tracking in Week 3.
Here are the matchups we’re targeting for Week 12.
NFL Luck Rankings – Week 12 Notable Games
Each team’s luck ranking is in parenthesis.
Nick Giffen: Washington and Indianapolis both covered against the Eagles in each of the past two weeks, with the Commanders winning outright.
I think the Packers can replicate the formula those teams rode to success: Run the ball.
The Packers are a much better rushing team than passing, ranking fifth on the ground but only 16th through the air in DVOA.
Meanwhile, Philly's run funnel defense ranks 26th against the run and third against the pass. The Eagles are also missing rookie first-round defensive tackle Jordan Davis. He's missed each of the past two games when teams covered against them.
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Sean Koerner: This is more of a lean early in the week, but definitely a situation I'm monitoring heading into the weekend.
The public is all over Seattle with 68% of the action on them thus far.
The public has likely written off the Raiders despite coming off a win against Denver. It was Las Vegas' first win in one-score games after going 0-6 in such contests prior to Week 11.
The Raiders have played much better than their 3-7 record indicates, and are in play here at a key number like +3.5.
I'd wait and see if LT Kolton Miller suits up before placing this bet.
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Jaguars (32) +4 vs. Ravens (8)
Nick Giffen: Jacksonville is coming off its bye week and will be rested up against a Ravens team that failed to cover against the lowly Panthers.
Like the Raiders, the Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games and have a record worse than their actual team strength.
The Jaguars have played like a team that should be slightly above .500 against a league-average opponent, but sit at 3-7, which is why they are last in our Luck Rankings.
In fact, the Jaguars sit only a few percentage points behind the Ravens in third-order Pythagorean win percentage. That makes them only a 2-point dog in a neutral situation by that metric.
With home-field advantage, there's plenty of value on the Jaguars at +4.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
