Our Action Network Luck Rankings are in for Week 14.
The unlucky teams from the Action Network Luck Rankings are 85-75-3 (53.1%) against the spread (ATS) overall. That includes a 43-35-1 (55.1%) mark when teams differ by at least 10 places since we started tracking in Week 3.
Here are the matchups we’re eyeing for Week 14.
NFL Luck Rankings – Week 14 Notable Games
Each team’s luck ranking is in parentheses.
Nick Giffen: Houston and Dallas were on opposite ends of the luck coin last week.
The Texans ended up as the unluckiest team of Week 14 per our Bad Beat Rankings thanks to three defensive and special teams touchdowns by the Browns.
Their in-state rival, Dallas, on the other hand, led Indianapolis by only two points heading into the fourth quarter before the wheels fell off for the Colts. The Cowboys scored 33 points — aided by a plethora of turnovers — which resulted in a 54-19 blowout that was much closer than the scoreline indicates.
If the Texans can avoid too many costly turnovers, they should be able to keep this game within 17.5 points. Going back to Davis Mills should help. Kyle Allen had four interceptions and four fumbles (losing one) in the two games he started.
Pick: Texans +17.5 |
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Sean Koerner: It's amazing to say a 5-7 team is favored over a 10-2 team, but here we are.
That's what happens when the 10-2 team has nine wins by one possession, while both losses were blowouts.
Last week, the Vikings escaped with a five-point victory despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards. All six of the Jets' second-half possessions reached the red zone, but they only managed 16 points.
It's also a rough matchup for Kirk Cousins. The Lions blitz at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL, which is an area Cousins has struggled. He ranks 31st out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in QB rating and 34th in success rate against the blitz.
The Lions are actually favored over the Vikings by our third-order Pythagorean win percentage on a neutral field, and adding in matchup considerations and home-field advantage, I'd back them as a favorite below the key number of three.
Pick: Lions -1.5 |
Nick Giffen: Books are making Tennessee a four-point favorite, which is quite a hefty number for a team that has a worse point differential than its opponent.
In fact, if we go beyond point differential and look at third-order Pythagorean expectation, the Jaguars should be a half-point favorite at a neutral field per our expected score metric.
Our Action Network PRO Projections show Tennessee should only be a three-point favorite, and our PRO Report shows four of the five key indicators back the Jags at +4.
Pick: Jaguars +4 |
