NFL Luck Rankings Week 15: Steelers Continue to Fall, Panthers Go Bottom

NFL Luck Rankings Week 15: Steelers Continue to Fall, Panthers Go Bottom article feature image
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Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Young (left) and Mike Tomlin.

Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 15.

These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.

For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.

Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 8-9-2 against the spread (ATS) this year.

However, a new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road after the Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night.

Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 112-65-6 (62.8%) ATS since the start of 2018.

Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 15.

NFL Week 15 Luck Rankings

Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.

RANKTEAMLuck %
1
23.2%
2
16.72%
3
14.12%
4
14.01%
5
13.74%
6
12.38%
7
10.65%
8
9.76%
9
9.39%
10
2.61%
11
0.83%
12
0.36%
13
0.01%
14
-0.37%
15
-0.38%
16
-0.7%
17
-1.97%
18
-2.27%
19
-2.68%
20
-3.37%
21
-3.39%
22
-4.25%
23
-4.48%
24
-7.83%
25
-8.32%
26
-8.34%
27
-10.58%
28
-11%
29
-11.03%
30
-13.84%
31
-16.9%
32
-17.96%

The Luckiest Teams

1. Philadelphia Eagles

For the second week in a row, the Eagles lost by multiple scores after a 33-13 loss to NFC East rival Dallas.

The reason this doesn't drop the Eagles in the Luck Rankings is because the Expected Score was nearly identical at 30-14, so they didn't get all that unlucky. Combine that with the Steelers' bad luck, and the gap between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh widened.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers were the second-most unlucky team from Week 14. That puts them inside the top-two most unlucky teams in each of the last two weeks.

Pittsburgh's Luck% has more than halved, falling from 35.3% after Week 10 to 16.7% now. The Steelers have lost three of their last four games in that span.

3. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts got smacked in Week 14 by Cincinnati 34-14 in a game that had an expected score of 27-13. That puts them on the heels of the team they face this week, the Steelers, for the No. 2 spot, with a Luck% of 14.1%. The winner of that game will likely retain at least the No. 2 spot going into Week 16.

The Unluckiest Teams

30. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo's win over Kansas City elevates them off the bottom line, but they're still a 9-4 quality team with a 7-6 record, which is enough to keep them in the bottom three.

31. New Orleans Saints

The Saints remain in 31st after a win against their NFC South rivals, the Carolina Panthers …

32. Carolina Panthers

… which moves Carolina from 30th to 32nd in the Luck Rankings. The 1-12 Panthers have the second-worst Expected Win%, ahead of only the Cardinals, who are 3-10 and pretty much in line with expectation. Carolina, though, has two fewer wins despite a slightly better win expectation.

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