Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:
- A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
- A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.
Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria 122-68-6 (62.9%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.
Last week, the unlucky teams in the six Luck Rankings matchups went 5-1-0 ATS giving the unlucky team in luck-based matchups a 9-7-1 (55.9%) start ATS on the season.
There were also six luck-based totals from last week. Luck Unders went 2-1-0 to the under, while Luck Overs went 3-0-0 to the over in Week 4 for a 5-1-0 week on Luck Totals.
As a reminder here are criteria for Luck Totals:
- A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 15-8-1 (65%) on the season.
NFL Week 5 Preview
Update Oct. 7: NFL Luck Rankings went 1-0 on Sunday and the model has a pick on tonight's Monday Night Football game between the Saints and Chiefs.
We have one Luck Matchup and one Luck Total for Week 5. All of the below will be tracked as official Luck Rankings plays when compiling the season-long records cited above, but I'll also note whether or not I'm following along with the Luck Rankings recommendation or not for each game.
Week 5 marks a bit of a turning point in the Luck Rankings landscape.
We now see a higher proportion of Luck Matchups come from the Luck Difference criteria (criteria No. 1 above), and a lower proportion from the Luck Gap criteria until we get to Week 13. That said, the one matchup this week meets both criteria.
NFL Week 5 Predictions With Action Network's Luck Rankings
Luck Difference: 28
Luck Gap: 66.8%
