Our Action Network Luck Rankings have gotten off to a hot start in 2022 ahead of Week 7.
Last week, the unlucky team in our luck rankings went 8-6 against the spread (ATS) overall when looking at closing lines. That includes a 3-1 record ATS when there was a luck ranking difference of 10 or more places.
Using closing lines, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings are 40-22 (64.5%) against the spread (ATS) overall. That jumps to 23-8 (74.2%) when teams differ by at least 10 places and 14-2 (87.5%) when the difference is 16 or more since we started tracking in Week 3.
So which Week 7 matchups are the ones to target? Let's dive in.
NFL Luck Rankings – Week 7 Notable Games
Nick Giffen: The biggest luck discrepancy of Week 7 is between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys.
I really like the Lions here for several reasons, and not just because of the 28-place difference in the luck rankings. There's also a 57.0% Luck Gap between the teams. That's important because unlucky teams with at least a 40% Luck Gap to the lucky team are 12-1 against the closing spread since we started tracking in Week 3.
The Lions offense also matches up well against the Cowboys defense, which is somewhat of a rush funnel, ranking 17th in defensive DVOA against the rush and third against the pass. Meanwhile, Detroit is fifth in offensive rushing DVOA but only 15th in passing offense.
There could also be some recency bias in play as Detroit is coming off a 29-0 shellacking to the New England Patriots back in Week 5.
However, a Week 6 bye week and Dak Prescott being fresh off an injury might make this the perfect spot to back the unluckiest team in the NFL.
The public is backing the Cowboys with 57% of all bets on Dallas. However, the big money is coming in on Detroit as a resounding 85% of the money is on the Lions.
Sean Koerner: The Giants are 5-1 in one-score games, making them the luckiest team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 28th in our Luck Rankings, making this luck differential of 27 the second largest of the week.
The 57.4% Luck Gap between the teams is actually the largest of Week 7.
Talk is finally starting to shift from the Giants being a pretender to being a contender. That means it could be the perfect time to fade them.
Last week, 65% of the action was on Baltimore Ravens to cover against the Giants. However, the public is backing the Giants in this game. New York is seeing 65% of the action, despite the fact that the Ravens controlled last week's game for much of the game. Baltimore out-gained the Giants by 168 yards.
Based on our expected score metric which drives our Luck Rankings, these teams should each be 3-3, with the Jaguars the stronger team.
Wait and See
Nick Giffen: The public is down on the Denver Broncos big time after struggles in primetime. Also, Russell Wilson is dealing with a hamstring injury.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets are coming off a seemingly dominant 27-10 win over the Green Bay Packers. However, that win was luckier than it seems.
The discrepancy in public perception is very real, as 82% of bettors are backing the Jets.
However, four of the five signals from our Pro Report are lighting up on the Broncos. Yes, some of our Action Network experts are backing the Jets, but they took New York at +3 and +2 instead of the current +1 line.
With a 21-place luck difference and a 34.5% Luck Gap between the two teams, there's plenty of reason to think Denver may cover if Wilson is healthy enough to play.
NFL Luck Rankings | Week 7 Matchups
Here are all of the Week 7 games, and how they rate according to our Luck Rankings.
Luck Diff – the difference between two teams' Luck Ranking. A positive number means the team has been more unlucky than its opponent.
Luck Gap – the difference between two teams' Luck%. A positive number means the team has been more unlucky than its opponent.
