Our Action Network Luck Rankings are back for Week 9, and while there is some expected regression, unlucky teams are still performing at a solid rate against the closing spread.
Overall, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings are 52-39 (57.1%) against the spread (ATS) overall. That improves to 28-20 (58.3%) when teams differ by at least 10 places and 15-8 (65.2%) when the difference is 16 or more since we started tracking in Week 3.
Here are the matchups we’re targeting for Week 9.
NFL Luck Rankings – Week 9 Notable Games
Each team’s luck ranking is in parenthesis.
Nick Giffen: Saints (3-5) vs. Ravens (5-3) represents the biggest differential in luck ranking this week.
These records are a bit misleading. The Saints have actually performed like a 4.5-win team, while the Ravens have performed like a 3.7-win team before schedule adjusting.
The Ravens have certainly played the more difficult schedule, and as a result have performed like the better of the two teams this year — but not by as much as their record indicates.
On a neutral field, the Saints should be slight underdogs based off 2022 performance. But we're getting the Saints at home at +2.5 after a 24-0 whipping of the Raiders where they really weren't all that lucky according to our expected score model. I'll gladly take the points.
Sean Koerner: This Luck Rankings differential of 11 isn't the largest, and the Bears are coming off a 20 point loss to the Cowboys. However, that margin was much more unlucky than it seems.
The Bears offense is much improved since the start of the year, as they've designed more run plays for Justin Fields. Chicago also added Chase Claypool before the trade deadline, giving Fields a respectable starting WR duo of Claypool and Darnell Mooney.
The Bears are coming off a streak of four road games in their last five, so public perception may be too low on them right now.
Nick Giffen: While this isn't a game I'm betting, it is notable that the Texans hold the largest Luck Gap% difference to the Eagles for Week 9.
The Eagles are getting pounded by the public with nearly 80% of the tickets on the undefeated Eagles to cover.
However, big money and sharp action has come in on the Texans according to our PRO Report as the Eagles are only drawing 62% of the money.
