NFL MVP Odds
Odds via DraftKings as of Jan. 10.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | -500 |
| Tom Brady | +400 |
| Cooper Kupp | +2000 |
| Joe Burrow | +2500 |
| Jonathan Taylor | +3500 |
| Josh Allen | +6500 |
| Patrick Mahomes | +6500 |
| Kyler Murray | +10000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +10000 |
| Derek Carr | +10000 |
| Dak Prescott | +10000 |
Jan. 10 NFL MVP Odds Update
This race is all but over.
Some analytics people — like the kind folks at Pro Football Focus — have made arguments in favor of Tom Brady winning this award.
But the track record of this trophy is clear — a dominant quarterback on the best team in football will win this award.
That's Aaron Rodgers this season.
The 2020 NFL MVP has the highest touchdown-to-interception ratio by far out of all quarterbacks with at least 750 passing yards. He also has the highest first-down ratio of any QB by a fairly high margin.
His team was the only one to lock down a first-round bye before the last week of the regular season, and Rodgers has given the Packers yet another very real shot at finally hoisting another Super Bowl trophy.
Frankly, there's no way Brady wins this at +400.
Come Thursday, Feb. 10, Rodgers will lift his second-straight MVP trophy.
Jan. 4 NFL MVP Odds Update
Although Aaron Rodgers continues his reign as the favorite heading into the final week of the season, the guys behind him have shuffled pretty dramatically.
Joe Burrow was the biggest riser of the week. Burrow was 35-1 to win the award a week ago and is currently 10-1 at DraftKings after his team clinched the AFC North.
Tom Brady still has a chance at winning MVP. Although his odds have dropped as Rodgers and Burrow continue to impress.
Just a week ago, Jonathan Taylor was the second betting favorite to win the MVP. He has fallen all the way to 16-1 despite another 100-yard performance for the Colts.
The rest of the names aren't worth betting.
Dec. 28 NFL MVP Odds Update
With just two games left in the regular season, the MVP race is finally showing some clarity with a significant favorite.
That honor now goes to Aaron Rodgers, whose Packers are in pole position to take the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Unless the Packers falter and give up that spot, Rodgers will win his second-straight MVP award.
The Packers close out the season with games against the Vikings and Lions. Two wins would guarantee a first-round bye — and likely Rodgers' second-straight MVP award.
Jonathan Taylor has snuck into the race and is currently the second favorite. It would take a couple of miraculous performances from Taylor and a couple of duds from Rodgers for the second-year running back out of Wisconsin to win the award.
Brady and Bills quarterback Josh Allen had been toggling since November as MVP favorites. Then, the Bills started to slide heavily, capped off by an embarrassing 9-6 loss to the Jaguars.
The greatest quarterback of all-time had a clear coast, it seemed, with four weeks remaining. All he had to do was get past the Saints, Panthers twice and Jets to lock up the No. 1 seed and all but guarantee his fourth MVP award. Brady had an opportunity to be the oldest MVP winner in pro sports history.
But, an absolute dud of a performance that saw Brady throw for just 214 yards with no touchdowns and one pick in a 9-0 loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football has sent his odds plummeting from -175 to +175.
Brady followed that up with a 232-yard passing performance in a 32-6 win over the Panthers but his odds still dropped from +175 to +750.
Rodgers had been the +500, second-best favorite but vaulted into the top spot at +125 after a dominant performance over the Ravens two weeks ago.
Now, despite an off-putting COVID situation in which Rodgers misled the public about his vaccination status — and despite a broken toe suffered during his quarantine — the Packers quarterback is on track to cement his status as a top-five quarterback of all-time. All it will take is two more wins.
Dec. 21 NFL MVP Odds Update
We are officially in the home stretch, ladies and gentlemen. And for the first time in over a month, Tom Brady is no longer the favorite to win the NFL MVP.
That honor now goes to Aaron Rodgers, whose Packers are in poll position to take the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Unless the Packers falter and give up that spot, Rodgers will win his second-straight MVP award.
The Packers close out the season with games against the Browns, Vikings and Lions. Wins in all three would guarantee a first-round bye — and likely Rodgers’ MVP award.
Brady and Bills quarterback Josh Allen had been toggling since November as MVP favorites. Then, the Bills started to slide heavily, capped off by an embarrassing 9-6 loss to the Jaguars.
The greatest quarterback of all-time had a clear coast, it seemed, with four weeks remaining. All he had to do was get past the Saints, Panthers twice and Jets to lock up the No. 1 seed and all but guarantee his fourth MVP award. Brady had an opportunity to be the oldest MVP winner in pro sports history.
But, an absolute dud of a performance that saw Brady throw for just 214 yards with no touchdowns and one pick in a 9-0 loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football has sent his odds plummeting from -175 to +175.
Rodgers had been the +500, second-best favorite but vaulted into the top spot at +125 after a dominant performance over the Ravens.
Now, despite an off-putting COVID situation in which Rodgers misled the public about his vaccination status — and despite a broken toe suffered during his quarantine — the Packers quarterback is on track to cement his status as a top-five quarterback of all-time. All it’ll take is three more wins.
Dec. 14 NFL MVP Odds Update
Tom Brady is now the prohibitive favorite to win his fourth MVP award. His line moved from +175 to -175 after yet another 300+ yard passing day in which he threw for two touchdowns and even added one from the ground.
And it was against a very good team in the Buffalo Bills — at least, according to the advanced analytics. Football Outsiders still like the Bills as the No. 1 defense according to their DVOA metric.
Outside of Brady, there's pretty much just one person who can catch him in this race: Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers also threw for more than 300 yards — with four touchdowns — in a dismantling of the Bears on Sunday Night Football. But, unless Rodgers pulls out the No. 1 seed and captures another ridiculous Hail Mary-adjacent moment, this award seems all but wrapped up.
A Rodgers MVP win would also require the Buccaneers to falter down the stretch, which seems unlikely given Tampa's schedule to finish the season. They host the Saints, hit the road to play the Panthers, play away at the Jets then end the season at home against the Panthers. Those are three bad teams.
Kyler Murray had a shot at this award but threw up a dud against the Rams this week in a performance that included two picks, one fumble and two turnovers on downs in Los Angeles territory.
Additionally, no MVP winner in the 21st century has missed three games or more. Murray missed three in November. He's all but out of the running now.
The rest of the candidates are essentially just window dressing at this point. It's a two-horse race between Rodgers and Brady, and it's not particularly close. Barring an anomaly, Brady will become the oldest MVP winner of all-time, across sports, at 44-years-old — beating a record he tied when he won at 40-years-old in 2017.
The only other 40-year-old winner of the MVP is Barry Bonds.
Dec. 7 NFL MVP Odds Update
Tom Brady has now created a significant gap between him and the rest of the field as the MVP favorite.
It is less about Brady's play and more about the play of those behind him. Josh Allen made a significant drop from second in odds last week to fourth in odds this week after a subpar performance in terrible weather against the Patriots on Monday Night Football.
Aaron Rodgers is the closest competition currently to Brady after back-to-back 300+ yard passing performances. But with Rodgers having won it last year and Brady having a better season, he would need a brilliant final stretch of the season in order to surpass Brady. Something that's not out of the question for Rodgers.
Kyler Murray may have the best value of those that are still in the MVP hunt. He made his return from injury after being out for four weeks in a 33-22 win over the Bears. He threw 123 yards and two touchdowns and added 59 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
No player has won the MVP after missing three or more games due to injury. But if voters are tired of giving it to Brady or Rodgers, Murray is by far the next best option.
Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes are certainly still in the hunt but it would take some miraculous performances for any of them to surpass Brady.
Nov. 30 NFL MVP Odds Update
Tom Brady is still the MVP favorite but lost some ground to Josh Allen after the Bills destroyed the Saints on Thanksgiving Day.
Brady had a solid game against the Colts — throwing for 226 yards and one touchdown — but he also had a pick and kept the game a little too close for comfort. Meanwhile, Allen had his third straight game with two or more turnovers, but managed to offset that with four touchdown passes and 303 total yards in a dominant 31-6 win over a very good Saints defense that's ranked No. 5 in DVOA.
The Thanksgiving showing helped boost Allen's odds from +600 to +450. Brady's odds fell from +300 to +350 despite a respectable showing against a similarly solid defense. The Colts D is ranked 12th overall in DVOA.
Matthew Stafford has shown, once again, that he's a fraud. He had his third straight game in which he threw a pick-six. The Rams lost their third straight, too, falling to the Packers 36-28.
Stafford's odds fell from tied for third-best at +1000 to tied for seventh-best at +1600. Don't bet that line for literally any amount.
Aaron Rodgers' stock went up to third because of that win over the Rams. Despite a fractured toe, Rodgers threw for 307 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. It was a fantastic display against a defense ranked No. 9 in DVOA.
Kyler Murray's odds stayed the same despite a bye week. As aforementioned, no player in the 21st century has won an MVP Award after having missed three or more games. Murray has missed his last three games with an ankle injury. For my money, he's out of the running entirely unless he goes full Houdini down the stretch.
Patrick Mahomes is up the board again and is in his highest position for this award since September. Mahomes had been a ridiculous +6500 underdog to win his second MVP just three weeks ago after having been the preseason favorite. Then, the Chiefs ripped off three straight convincing wins and now look poised to lock down their sixth straight AFC West title — something that looked far from certain mere weeks ago.
Another interesting riser is Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor. He leads the league — by far — in rushing yards, and is on pace to rush for over 1,700 yards. That assuredly won't be enough to win the MVP, but if he somehow beats Eric Dickerson's all-time single season rushing record of 2,105, Taylor will be strongly considered for this award. The running back's odds shortened from +2000 to +1800 this week after putting up 83 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs.
Nov. 23 NFL MVP Odds Update
Josh Allen is finally off the top of this chart. After a terrible game against the Jacksonville Jaguars and another stinker against the Indianapolis Colts, it's surprising to even see him No. 2 on this list right now.
As it stands, Tom Brady is the odds-on favorite to win his fourth MVP, even though he's had his fair share of struggles this season, too.
This field is honestly wide open, and will be almost wholly dependent on who gets the No. 1 seed. If the Bills somehow pull out of their 1.5 game deficit and nab the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Josh Allen should be your bet here.
But, that's unlikely with how the Bills are playing. Your bet should perhaps be whichever quarterback you think will grab the bye out of the NFC — sans Kyler Murray.
Somehow, Murray's odds are still +1200 despite having missed the past three games. Now, that's certainly a testament to how bad the field is this season, but no player has ever won this award in the 21st century after missing three games. Murray, by all accounts, is out of luck.
My money is on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to rip off five wins out of their last six games and seal up a No. 1 seed.
At +1000, you'd be paying, in effect, preseason prices on Rodgers to pull off his second straight MVP.
As I've written about previously, there is a chance Rodgers' anti-vaccine comments pulls some voters astray, but I'm guessing that this factor will be marginal.
Nov. 16 NFL MVP Odds Update
Josh Allen had a great day against the lowly New York Jets while Tom Brady threw two picks against the woefully average Washington Football Team.
That was enough for Allen to pull himself into poll position in this race, with Brady lagging behind now for second.
Allen had been the sole favorite for two weeks before Brady tied him two Sundays ago.
Brady looked terrible against WFT, but still leads the league in touchdowns and is third in total passing yards.
Allen, meanwhile, lost to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars two weeks ago and doesn't lead any major offensive category. Betting on him is moreso a bet on the Bills more than anything else — and even they have just the seventh-best record in the NFL.
Still, the Bills are somehow the favorite to win the Super Bowl as of Nov. 16. And Allen, of course, is the favorite to win the NFL MVP.
This implies that there's value elsewhere, but I'm not sure if we'll see one particular player pull ahead and become the prohibitive favorite.
Kyler Murray saw his odds drop from +750, third-best favorite to +1600, sixth-best favorite after missing his second straight game due to injury.
No one in the 21st century has won MVP by playing fewer than 14 games — and that was when teams played 16. Murray has missed two games already and would likely take himself fully out of the running for this award should he miss one more.
For my money, Dak Prescott is the best bet here.
Though you'd get some negative closing line value — his odds dropped from +1200 to +800 since last week — he leads all quarterbacks in passing DVOA and no one else in particular really sticks out.
I don't trust Josh Allen to finish out this season with the Bills in the No. 1 seed.
Brady isn't a fun enough narrative for voters, and plus, the Bucs look like they may lock up a middle-of-the-pack seed.
Matthew Stafford is a fraud.
Aaron Rodgers would be my No. 2 pick, especially if you're bullish on the Packers to pick up the one seed. Though he leads no major offensive categories, he's had the fewest negative plays on the season — and the fewest turnovers among the major quarterbacks.
That might not be enough to garner this award — voters love gaugy, traditional stats more than they love game managers — but Rodgers could very well do it if the Packers win 15 games.
That said, Rodgers' recent comments make him a relatively polarizing figure. It's unclear how that'll play out in the voters' calculus, but I'm guessing it'll be a marginal factor.
Regardless, there looks to be value on the board right now. I don't trust the top two favorites at all.
Nov. 9 NFL MVP Odds Update
It was a bad week for all the top contenders and the only player to rise up the rankings was on a bye week.
Josh Allen is still the favorite to win the NFL MVP, though he's now tied with Tom Brady in this horse race.
Allen had an abysmal performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars, of all teams, so it's slightly confounding that he's still at the top of this list. The Bills are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl, too. That's likely dependent on their No. 1 ranked defense, but it's clear Allen has deficiencies that he'll have to outgrow in order to bring this team to the promised land.
The Bills are 1.5 games back from the Titans for the vital No. 1 seed and that sweet, sweet first round bye. The Titans hold the tiebreaker between the teams by virtue of their Week 6 win over the Bills on Monday Night Football.
Brady became the co-favorite despite a bye week in what's more of a testament to Allen's bad performance than anything else.
Murray fell from +600, tied-for-second in this race to sole third after missing Sunday's game. No MVP has won the award with fewer than 14 games played, so he can really only afford to miss one more game for this trophy's case.
Matthew Stafford had a terrible, terrible game against the Titans and it showed. His odds dropped from tied-for-second to fourth.
Dak Prescott also had a terrible game in a blowout loss to the Very Average Denver Broncos. His odds fell from fifth-best to seventh-best on account of him also missing a game two weeks ago with a calf injury.
Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is at his season-low mark of +6500 after opening as a +500 favorite. His Chiefs have ranked 25th in offensive DVOA since Week 5.
Nov. 2 NFL MVP Odds Update
Josh Allen has become the prohibitive favorite to win the MVP Award after usurping Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott last week.
Allen had been the favorite for a week in September, too.
His odds moved from +400 to +250 after his Bills dismantled the Dolphins 26-11. Allen had a great game but got off to a relatively slow start. The Bills needed seven drives and until the second half to score a touchdown, but once they did, they started to roll.
Allen finished the day with 249 passing yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
Murray, meanwhile, dropped from the outright second-best favorite to being mired in a three-horse race at second place. Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady now have equal odds with Murray at +600 to win the award. Murray had been +450 prior.
The Cardinals lost their undefeated record with a loss to the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football. The No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft had his worst game of the season, with 274 yards passing but with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Prescott's odds fell from third-place to fifth place after he didn't suit up against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys still won the game 20-16 to go 7-0 against the spread so far this season.
Derrick Henry's odds plummeted from 25-1 to 40-1 amid a foot injury that might sideline him for the season. Henry had been on pace to beat the all-time rushing record of 2,104 yards set by Eric Dickerson in 1984.
Justin Herbert also saw his odds drop from 18-1 to 25-1 after a second straight loss, this time at the hands of the New England Patriots.
Patrick Mahomes remained a +4000 underdog to win his second career MVP Award.
Oct. 26 NFL MVP Odds Update
Josh Allen is the favorite again.
The fourth-year quarterback out of Wyoming had been the favorite in late September before being usurped by Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott.
Allen's odds went from +500 to +400 despite a bye week.
Murray went from the +400 favorite to second-best at +450.
Dak Prescott, the previous co-favorite, saw his odds drop from +400 to +500 after he suffered a calf injury on the last play of their game against the New England Patriots in Week 6. The Cowboys had a bye last week.
Murray was initially shaky against a bad Houston Texans defense, which forced the Cardinals to punt twice and commit a safety in Arizona's first three drives of the game.
While Murray threw a pick later in the second half, he rallied to lead the team to an easy 31-5 victory in the end.
Derrick Henry is still in the mix despite a relatively lackluster game in which he only put up 86 yards on the ground. He's still on-pace to beat Eric Dickerson's all-time rushing record of 2,104 yards.
If he does so, he'd likely become the MVP favorite. Keep in mind though that Dickerson set the record in a 16-game season.
Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson all saw their odds drop after Week 7.
Jackson in particular fell from a 12-1 underdog to a 25-1 one after the Ravens were dismantled by the Bengals 41-17.
Patrick Mahomes — the preseason favorite at +500 — has seen his odds drop all the way to +4000 amid the Chiefs' season from hell. Kansas City is 3-4 and may miss the playoffs altogether.
Oct. 19 MVP Odds Update
Kyler Murray is back on top of the MVP leaderboard, but now he's joined by a co-competitor.
While Murray had been the leader after Week 4 and 5, Josh Allen usurped him in Week 6. No longer.
And now Dak Prescott — a 16-1 preseason underdog — also has +450 to win his first trophy.
One thing impeding this could be a calf strain Prescott suffered on the last play of their 35-29 OT victory over the New England Patriots.
If that keeps him out for a few games, you'll see his odds drop precipitously.
Meanwhile, Murray looks fully healthy and is leading an undefeated, 6-0 Cardinals team en route to their first division title since 2015.
Allen slipped in these odds slightly but remains in the hunt despite a last-second loss to the Tennessee Titans on Monday. The 6-foot-5 quarterback couldn't convert a QB sneak on 4th down, a failure that ended the game.
An interesting riser is Derrick Henry, who is on pace to take down the all-time rushing record.
As mentioned in the article above, if he beats that record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984, it's likely he wins this award. But that would require him to maintain this ridiculous pace.
Still, it's possible. He's 22-1 now at BetMGM after being 50-1 the week prior.
Sept. 28 MVP Odds Update
We have a new favorite!
Kyler Murray has usurped Patrick Mahomes in the MVP rankings at DraftKings despite a relatively lackluster, game-manage-y win against the Jacksonville Jaguars over the weekend.
Still, the Cardinals are now 3-0 and Murray — who gets plenty of MVP buzz around this time of year — is the firm favorite to win the award for the first time in his career.
Mahomes threw two picks in a 30-24 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs are now 1-2 — and Andy Reid's status is currently unknown after he had to be sent to the hospital after falling ill.
The 2019 NFL MVP had been the preseason favorite and kept that moniker through Week 2.
Preseason dark horse Matthew Stafford is now tied for second-shortest odds after having been as long as +1500.
Aaron Rodgers has made a resurgence up the charts after a terrible Week 1 sent his odds plummeting to +1600. He's now back to his preseason closing mark of +1000.
Justin Herbert has shot up the charts, too. His odds have shortened more than half since before the season from +2500 to +1200. The Chargers look feisty and are a solid 2-1.
Sept. 21 Update
Kyler Murray and Tom Brady now both have the second-best odds to win the NFL MVP after commanding Week 2 performances.
Murray threw for 400 yards with three passing touchdowns and one with his feet in a 34-33 win over the Minnesota Vikings. He did have two picks, though, and the Cardinals only won because Vikings kicker Greg Joseph missed a last-second, game-winning 37-yard field goal.
Brady threw for 276 yards with five touchdowns in a 48-25 win over the Atlanta Falcons. The greatest player of all-time did have a fumble in that game.
Matthew Stafford was the biggest dropper of Week 2. After he generated well-deserved buzz by leading a dominant, new-look Rams offense to a 34-14 win over the Chicago Bears, he had a far less efficient game against the Colts. His odds fell from second-best at +800 to tied for fourth at +1200.
Sept. 13 Update
Aaron Rodgers' odds have taken a massive tumble after he threw for just 133 yards with two interceptions in a 38-3 defeat to the New Orleans Saints. His odds to win MVP have fallen from +1000 to +1600.
The reigning NFL MVP now tied for eighth-most likely to win the award after having had the second-best odds before the season.
Matthew Stafford saw his odds shoot up from +1800 to +800 after a dominant performance in which he went 20-for-26 with 321 yards and three touchdowns. The Rams decimated the Bears 34-14.
The former Lion is now the second-best MVP candidate.
Another notable riser is Jameis Winston, who threw five touchdown passes against the Packers on Sunday. His odds shot up from +4000 to +2500.
Sept. 8 Update
Dak Prescott's line has moved the most since August, with his MVP odds dropping from 16/1 to 18/1 at DraftKings.
Every other player's odds above has stayed the same since late August.
Overall MVP odds look to stay the same heading into Week 1, which begins tomorrow between the Cowboys and Buccaneers.
August 24 Update
While nothing has changed at the top of the oddsboard — it's still Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers at the top — some chasers are getting closer as the NFL regular season nears.
According to odds at DraftKings, Rodgers has slipped two notches down from +800 to +1000 while quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert are among those moving.
Wilson was +2000 back in April but is now +1400, behind just Mahomes, Rodgers and Josh Allen. Herbert (+1800) and Murray (+1600) both jumped from +2000 as well.
Other notable adjustments include Carson Wentz falling from +3300 to +5000 and Cam Newton dropping to +6500 from +5000.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is now +3500 after being listed at +5000 in April.
A big preseason push to be the full-time starter in New Orleans has Jameis Winston on the move, as P.J. Walsh covered here.
Past NFL MVP Odds Updates
April 27
Samantha Previte: With the bulk of free agency behind us, still leading 2021 NFL MVP odds is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at +600 (14.29% implied probability). The 25-year-old has already earned numerous awards in his short career including the NFL MVP, NFL Offensive Player of the Year, first-team All-Pro, three Pro Bowl nominations, Super Bowl LIV MVP and one Super Bowl ring.
Next up is Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at +800 (11.11%), who has already won the award three times and is the reigning MVP. The 37-year-old is coming off one of his best seasons to date and led the league in passer rating, passing touchdowns and completion percentage. He is a strong bet, especially if Green Bay (finally) drafts another weapon.
There's a significant drop-off after Rodgers with Bills QB Josh Allen at third with +1300 odds (7.14%). Expectations are high heading into 2021 for 24-year-old Allen, who is fresh off of his best season in which he earned Pro Bowl honors, second-team All-Pro honors and led the Bills to their first AFC Championship appearance since 1993.
Tied for the fourth-shortest odds are Buccaneers QB Tom Brady and Rams QB Matthew Stafford at +1400 (6.67%). Brady, 43, is the reigning Super Bowl MVP and has won the NFL MVP award three times in his 21-year career. This will be 33-year-old Stafford's first season in Los Angeles after spending his first 12 seasons with the Lions.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Cowboys QB Dak Prescott are next at +1600 (5.88%). Jackson, 24, won the NFL MVP award in 2019 while Prescott, 27, is coming off of a catastrophic ankle injury.
Next up are Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and Seahawks QB Russell Wilson — who was an early favorite for MVP last season — at +2000 (4.76%) and Chargers QB Justin Herbert and Titans QB Ryan Tannehill at +2500 (3.85%), none of whom have won the award in the past.
The first 11 players listed on DraftKings are quarterbacks. Titans running back Derrick Henry and Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey have the highest odds for a non-quarterback player and are tied for 12th at +3300 (2.94%).
A non-quarterback has not won the award since Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. The past eight consecutive winners have been quarterbacks and 18 of the winners since 2000 have been quarterbacks (four running backs).
Feb. 11
Katie Richcreek: It was a two-man race, but it took until Week 16 for Aaron Rodgers to pull ahead of Patrick Mahomes on the oddsboard for 2020 NFL MVP before officially claiming the hardware at the end of the season.
Now, Mahomes and Rodgers find themselves atop the board once again for 2021 — Mahomes' +500 odds (bet $100 to net a $500 profit) give him a 16.7% implied probability to win the award while Rodgers' +800 odds give him an 11.1% implied probability (convert more odds with our calculator).
Both led their teams to the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences in 2020 on the heels of phenomenal regular-season performances:
- Mahomes (14-2): 66.3% comp; 4,740 yards; 38 TDs; 6 INTs; 82.9 QBR
- Rodgers (13-3): 70.7% comp; 4,299 yards; 48 TDs; 5 INTs; 84.4 QBR
It's no surprise that, given their MVP odds, the Chiefs and Packers open the 2021 season with the best odds to win Super Bowl 56.
Josh Allen and Russell Wilson, who entered the 2020 race at various points, are tied for the third-best MVP odds at +1300. The next crop of quarterbacks on the board are led by Matthew Stafford, whose MVP odds rose in the wake of being traded from the Lions to the Rams to kickstart the offseason QB carousel.
As for non-QBs, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey share honors of being the highest running backs on the board, tied at +3300 odds.
More QBs are expected to find new homes in the coming months, either via trade or during free agency. We'll be tracking how the MVP odds shift as that offseason movement unfolds, so be sure to keep this page bookmarked until Week 1 kicks off.
