Giants vs. Buccaneers Odds
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants both have 4-3 records against the spread this season. Which team is a better bet to stay above .500 ATS on Monday night?
New York Giants
The Giants' nightmare slate of matchups continues.
According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Bucs are the NFL's No. 1 defense, making this the sixth time in eight games that the Giants are facing an opponent ranked inside the top 12.
Here are their point totals versus the other five:
- Week 1: No. 2 Pittsburgh: 16 points
- Week 2: No. 6 Chicago: 13 points
- Week 3: No. 8 San Francisco: 9 points
- Week 4: No. 11 L.A. Rams: 9 points
- Week 6: No. 5 Washington: 20 points
- Average: 13.4 points
- Median: 13 points
With starting left guard Will Hernandez on the COVID-19 list, the Giants will turn to Shane Lemieux, a fifth-round rookie out of Oregon who has played all of two snaps this season.
The Giants offensive line enters Monday night ranked 32nd by Pro Football Focus in pass blocking and 27th in run blocking, and the absence of Hernandez will only make things tougher versus a talented Bucs front seven featuring the likes of Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul, Vernon Gholston, Steve McLendon, Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David, and Devin White. The Bucs are generating pressure at the fourth-highest rate (27.4%) and limiting opponents to a league-best 3.0 yards per carry.
Daniel Jones has been under pressure on 43.1% of his dropbacks this season, third-most, and the results are about what you'd expect from a bottom-three passing offense: 40-of-85 (47.1%), 420 yards (4.94 YPA), two TDs, three interceptions and 20 sacks.
Jones' most dangerous weapon is wide receiver Darius Slayton, who could have trouble getting open against third-year cornerback Carlton Davis. The 2018 second-round pick out of Auburn has become a problem for opposing wideouts this year, allowing just a 50% completion rate, 5.2 yards per target, two TDs and three interceptions on a team-leading 42 targets in coverage this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Giants have slumped to 27th in pass-defense DVOA, but their one strength in this area is deterring opponents from targeting their No. 1 wide receiver. Thanks to offseason acquisition James Bradberry, who has allowed a passer rating of just 62.7 on 41 targets this season, the Giants rank fourth in DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers. They've allowed just 52.7 schedule-adjusted yards per game to the position, good for sixth-fewest.
With Chris Godwin out, the Giants should have success taking away Mike Evans, who has struggled this season, drawing a target on just 15.4% of routes and averaging a career-low 12.7 yards per catch.
Outside of Bradberry, the secondary is exploitable: No. 2 cornerback has been a revolving door of horror all season, and Ryan Lewis (hamstring), the team's third different starter at the position, is doubtful. The Giants rank 19th in DVOA vs. No. 2 wide receivers, and dead last vs. non-WR1/2s.
But with Evans (ankle) and Scotty Miller (hip) playing at less than 100% and Antonio Brown still a week away, Brady may instead look to pick on the Giants' safeties and linebackers. Rob Gronkowski has come alive with two straight games of five-plus catches and a TD, while the finally healthy 1-2 punch of Ronald Jones Jr. and Leonard Fournette should be able to keep the chains moving against a Giants defense that also ranks dead last in DVOA on targets to running backs.
Though the Giants struggle in pass defense, they are not necessarily easy to pull away from thanks to a run defense that is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry (fifth-best), which has helped them to a 4-3 ATS mark this season.
Buccaneers-Giants Pick
I jumped on Bucs -10 when this line first came out, but the number has since fallen in line with my projection.
Usually in this situation, the play would be to take the points with the home dog, but even if this number balloons up to the key number of +14, I can't recommend a play on the Giants because of the mismatch between their offense and the Bucs defense, as well as Jones' propensity to give the opposing defense free points on turnovers. Jones has effectively negated his team's home-field advantage, as the Giants are 1-8 ATS at home with Jones as the starter, failing to cover by a whopping 7.78 points per game.
The total is also iffy. I have it at 44, as I doubt we'll see the best of the Bucs offense in windy conditions with the receiving corps banged up, but Jones also creates a lot of variance, as he's committed 33 turnovers in 19 career starts.
Given that the Giants have scored a median of 13 points in five games against top-12 defenses and are now facing the NFL's top-rated unit, I like the Giants team total under 16.5 better than a side or total.
I would bet under 16.5 up to -135.
PICK: Giants Under 16.5
