Titans vs. Colts Odds
The Colts' 24-10 loss to the Ravens was one of the most misleading scores of Week 9.
My "expected" score, which analyzes underlying stats and attempts to remove any "luck," had the Colts winning that game 23-18 — there were just numerous plays on which they simply ended up on the wrong side of luck: A Ravens fumble recovery for a touchdown, a terrible officiating call on a Marcus Peters interception, and a failed fourth-and-inches deep inside Ravens territory toward the end of the game.
Now thanks in part to that misleading final score creating value, I like the Colts to bounce back on the short week.
Their offense is starting to get healthy. Rookie wide receiver Michael Pittman returned in Week 8 and T.Y. Hilton is set to return tonight, and Philip Rivers' play should improve now that most of his weapons are healthy.
On defense, after looking washed up last season in Minnesota, Xavier Rhodes has turned his career around in Indy — his Pro Football Focus grade of 78.3 ranks fourth among cornerbacks this season. He'll matchup against Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown and attempt to slow him down.
Aiding that attempt could be a struggling Ryan Tannehill, who is clearly missing stud offensive tackle Taylor Lewan (torn ACL) — specifically when under pressure. Here is Tannehill's quarterback rating and rank when under pressure with vs. without Lewan:
- Weeks 1-6 (with Lewan): 97.4 (sixth out of 35)
- Weeks 8-9 (without Lewan): 33.2 (28th of 35)
What about stopped Derrick Henry? Well, the Colts rank second in Football Outsiders' DVOA against the run and should also be able to contain him (enough).
With their WRs near full health, an elite defense that ranks fifth vs. pass in addition to second vs. run (per DVOA), and a misleading recent score means that the market is likely underrating the Colts here — I would take them all the way up to -2.
PICK: Colts -1.5
[Bet $1 on the Colts at BetMGM and win $100 if they score a touchdown]
