Bengals vs. Cowboys Odds
The Dallas Cowboys (3-9) and Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1) have both been decimated by injuries and are already looking towards next year. However, both have playmakers on offense who try to compensate for their struggling defenses.
What's the best way to bet this late-season battle between two teams with high hopes for the 2021 season? Let's take a look.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have lost two games in a row and six of their last seven. They're also a league-worst 2-10 against the spread, including just 1-5 on the road.
While the Dallas offense has shown life throughout the season, the defense has been miserable. The Cowboys rank 30th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, including a league-worst rank against the run.
Not only have they struggled against the run, but they've allowed the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Offensively, there remains talent for a big performance. Very quietly, Amari Cooper has produced a solid season. His positional rankings are as follows:
- 107 Targets (eighth)
- 76 Receptions (sixth)
- 891 Receiving Yards (13th)
Cooper has managed to grind out six fantasy WR2 or better performances, despite dealing with three different quarterbacks.
Rookie CeeDee Lamb has started to find a rapport with Andy Dalton, with 22 targets and 15 receptions over his past three games. Third WR Michael Gallup produced the overall fantasy WR10 line last week with 11 targets, seven receptions, 86 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Dallas should scheme to involve tight end Dalton Schultz early in the offense on Sunday, as Cincinnati ranks second in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott's season has been superbly disappointing as the injuries to the Dallas offensive line have limited his production, with the issues continuing to pile up: The Cowboys placed offensive tackle Cameron Erving on the injured reserve, where he joins All Pro left guard Zack Martin.
Elliot is listed as questionable, but if he's healthy, he'll have an opportunity against a Bengals defense that's allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing backs. If Elliott can't go, though, backup Tony Pollard should be a more-than-capable option to jumpstart the Cowboys' ground game.
While the Cowboys have struggled to maintain consistency on their offensive line, they should enjoy a reprieve against a Bengals team that ranks last in the league with just 13 total sacks.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will operate without quarterback Joe Burrow (knee surgery) for the third consecutive week. They're 0-2 behind backup Brandon Allen, who has produced consecutive fantasy QB27 weeks against tough defenses in the Giants and Dolphins.
Ryan Finley entered the loss to Miami in the fourth quarter, and would suit up again if Allen is hurt or ineffective.
On Thursday, Allen reiterated the importance of getting the ball to veteran wide receiver A.J. Green, who has zero catches in three of the past four games.
Allen did connect with Tyler Boyd on a 72-yard touchdown against the Dolphins, and has a strong pair of starters in Boyd and Tee Higgins. Dallas has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, including a league-high 21 touchdowns.
With Joe Mixon out, look for veteran Giovani Bernard to handle the majority of touches. Bernard has done little with heavy volume over the past four weeks, but faced a murderers' row of defenses in Pittsburgh, Washington, the Giants and Miami. Facing this soft Cowboys defense should produce a stat line similar to his overall RB3 performance in Week 8 when he had three receptions for 78 yards and two touchdowns.
Tight end Drew Sample has evolved into a reliable option, with 12 targets and 11 receptions in the two games with Allen.
Cowboys-Bengals Pick
With a weather forecast of 43 degrees and limited winds, I'm banking on both offenses to enjoy one of their best games of the season. Bernard, Higgins and Boyd provide enough opportunities for Allen to guide this offense past 20 points.
Dalton will be highly motivated with a "revenge game" narrative, and the Bengals will have no answer for the receiving quartet of Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, and Schultz.
With Elliott and Bernard both having their most favorable matchups on the remaining schedule, I see a high-scoring game in Cincinnati.
I took the over at 42.5 but like it up to 43.5 points.
Pick: Over 42.5
