NFL Odds & Picks
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Chris Raybon: This line implies the Saints are 4-5 points better than the Steelers on a neutral field, which isn’t the case.
These teams are nearly even in overall DVOA, with the Saints 23rd and the Steelers 25th. What’s warping the perceived difference between these teams is strength of schedule.
While the Saints have played the 14th-easiest schedule by DVOA, the Steelers have played the toughest in the league. Every opponent Pittsburgh has faced is in the top 13 in overall DVOA:
- Bengals (7th)
- Patriots (13th)
- Browns (11th)
- Jets (8th)
- Bills (2nd)
- Bucs (10th)
- Dolphins (12th)
- Eagles (1st)
Not only are the Saints 10 spots worse than the weakest opponent the Steelers have faced, they are also overrated in their own right due to playing four of their past five games at home. The home/road splits for New Orleans are ugly:
- Home: 2-3 ATS; +1.20 ATS differential; +0.6 point differential
- Road: 0-3 ATS; -6.67 ATS differential; -5.0 point differential
From an Xs and Os standpoint, the key for the Steelers is their run defense. The Saints love to run on early downs, but Pittsburgh's run defense is 10th in DVOA on first down and fifth on second down. Pitt also ranks ninth in both early down rush EPA per play (-0.084) and early down rush success rate (36.8%).
Of course, Alvin Kamara is also a threat through the air. Against the pass, the Steelers allow 4.75 yards per target to running backs, which is eighth best. The Saints were recently exposed by the Ravens, who held them to 48 yards on 15 carries on the ground.
The Steelers’ man-heavy defensive scheme is most susceptible to mobile QBs. Their two worst games on defense came against Josh Allen (38 points allowed; 432 net passing yards) and Jalen Hurts (35 points; 290 net passing yards). Against everyone else, they’re allowing 20.7 points and 249.3 net passing yards, which includes limiting the Bucs to 18 points and 229 net passing yards in Week 6 and the Dolphins to 16 points and 261 net passing yards in Week 7.
And last but not least, the expected return of T.J. Watt will provide a massive boost. He is arguably the most impactful defender in football. In his lone game this season, he had five tackles, two pressures, a sack, an interception and two batted passes.
Watt, Cameron Heyward and co. could singlehandedly keep the Steelers afloat against a Saints offensive line that has graded out 18th in run blocking and 21st in pass blocking (per PFF). To make matters worse for New Orleans, center Erik McCoy (calf) and guard Andrus Peat (triceps) have both been ruled out for this game.
No injury status for Saints WR Jarvis Landry, which suggests he will play Sunday at Pittsburgh.
Five players ruled out though: CB Marshon Lattimore, LB Pete Werner, C Erik McCoy, G Andrus Peat, RB Mark Ingram II. pic.twitter.com/EfHclhLOMH
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) November 11, 2022
Starting in their place are 2020 undrafted free agent Calvin Throckmorton, who ranks last among 81 qualifiers with a 30.9 PFF grade, and 2021 sixth-round pick Landon Young, whose 40.0 grade would rank second-to-last if he had enough snaps to qualify.
Offense has been a struggle for the Steelers, but there are reasons for optimism in this spot.
For one, the bye week should be of major benefit to rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett, who got thrown into the fire in the middle of Week 4. His talent is obvious, and the bye should help him play smarter and composed football.
Pickett should be operating from a clean pocket most of the time, as the Saints rank 28th in pressure rate (16.8%). When he is pressured, his scrambling ability will come in handy against a defense that has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks. The Saints have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (24.1) and ninth-most yards per carry (5.18) to opposing quarterbacks.
Unsurprisingly for a unit that struggles to generate pressure, the Saints defense has not traveled well. In terms of DVOA, Dennis Allen’s unit ranks 11th at home, but they’re not even half as good on the road, clocking in at 23rd.
There are major injury concerns for the Saints on this side of the ball, as well. Top cornerback Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) still has no timetable for a return return, and New Orleans does not have a cornerback on its roster that has graded out higher than the 36th percentile among 113 qualified cornerbacks (at PFF).
Even after trading Chase Claypool, the Steelers still have a plethora of talented pass-catchers in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth. They’re a good bet to get some free yardage against a handsy New Orleans secondary. Per NFLPenalties.com, the Saints have committed a league-high 11 defensive holding penalties. They’ve also lost the seventh-most yards (107) on defensive pass interference calls.
Perhaps more concerning will be the absence of linebacker Pete Werner (ankle), who leads the team with 62 tackles — 30 more than the next-closest Saint — and has earned high marks in coverage. Safety Marcus Maye (abdomen) also popped up as a DNP on Thursday and Friday and is officially questionable.
With key players nursing injuries and missing practice on a short week before a road game, the Saints defense could be underprepared against a rested Steelers team.
Speaking of preparation, Mike Tomlin is always a good bet to have his team ready to play in this spot. Per our Action Labs data, Tomlin is 15-10 (60%) ATS coming off a loss with extra time to prepare.
More impressively, Tomlin is 48-26-3 (65%) ATS as an underdog, including 39-18-2 (68%) from October on. As a dog versus an opponent with a better record, the Steelers have posted an absurd 25-9-1 (74%) ATS mark under Tomlin.
What should give us the most confidence by far, though, is Tomlin’s track record of getting his team up when they are an underdog at home: The Steelers are 15-3-3 (83%) ATS as a home underdog under Tomlin, beating the closing number by 6.5 points per game on average.
The Steelers aren’t just covering as a home dog under Tomlin, they’re often winning outright — two-thirds of the time, to be exact.
Pick: Steelers +2.5 | Bet to -1 |
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Chris Raybon: Points should be hard to come in a matchup that features two teams with strong defenses and weak offenses:
- Broncos: No. 27 DVOA offense; No. 2 DVOA defense
- Titans: No. 22 DVOA offense; No. 10 DVOA defense
The Titans average 18.6 points per game (24th) despite a league-high 78.6% red-zone TD conversion rate. That figure is likely to regress to the mean, not only because no team finished higher than 66.7% last season, but also because the Broncos are the stingiest red-zone defense in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert just 26.3% of the time.
Meanwhile, the other side of the ball features a Broncos offense with a league-low red-zone conversion rate (35%) against a Titans defense that ranks 11th in conversion rate (52%) and fourth in DVOA in the red zone.
Third downs should also be a struggle for both teams. Denver's offense ranks 31st in third-down conversion rate (29.2%) while Tennessee's defense ranked first (28.6%). Flip it around and you have a Titans offense ranked 29th (33%) facing a Broncos defense ranked seventh (34.2%).
It’s hard to envision either of these offenses suddenly flipping a switch due to the pieces they’re missing on the offensive line.
The Titans have been without left tackle Taylor Lewan (IR; knee) since Week 1. Last season, Lewan allowed four sacks and 21 pressures in 13 starts; his replacement, Dennis Daley, has already allowed four sacks and 23 pressures in seven starts this year.
The Broncos lost left tackle Garrett Bolles (IR; leg) for the season in Week 5 and just placed center Lloyd Cushenberry on IR this week with a groin injury. Bolles’ 77.8 PFF pass-blocking grade is 16th of 74 qualified tackles, and Cushenberry’s 68.8 mark was 13th of 37 qualified centers.
Both defenses are top-11 in pressure rate and should be able to notch some sacks in this matchup. Russell Wilson doesn’t move as well as he used to, while Ryan Tannehill's mobility could be compromised as he attempts to return from an ankle injury that's cost him the last two games.
This game figures to be played at a slow pace. In terms of average seconds between plays, the Broncos rank 15th overall (28.04) and 16th in neutral game-script situations (30.97); the Titans are 32nd, both overall (31.50) and in neutral situations (33.90).
The Titans want to put the ball in Derrick Henry’s hands as many times as possible, which figures to be efficient — the Broncos are 25th in DVOA against the run — and will bleed clock.
The under is 7-1 in Broncos games and 6-2 in Titans games this season. Four straight Denver games and five straight Tennessee games have gone under the total. Per our Action Labs data, when both teams have gone under in three games in a row or more since 2003, the under is 39-26-1 (60%), covering by an average of 2.8 points per game.
Also keep in mind the Broncos are coming off their bye, and extra time off has shown to be valuable defensively late in the year as offenses already have put most of what they do on film and are increasingly less likely to catch a defense off guard.
Historically, offenses have struggled against well-rested defenses, particularly when the game has an early start. The market tends to underestimate the impact of this effect when the rested team goes on the road. From November-on, games played in the early window with the road team coming off a bye are 59-34 (63%) to the under since 2003, covering by 2.6 points per game.
Pick: Under 38.5 | to 36.5 |
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Chris Raybon: Pierce is undoubtedly the focal point of the Texans offense, but he’s likely to do most of his damage on the ground in this one. Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale leads the league in blitz rate (39.1%) and man coverage rate (46.1%), which forces running backs to stay in to block more often while limiting easy check downs when they do release into a route.
Only two of 12 RBs, or 16.7%, have cleared their receiving yardage prop against the Giants this season, including none since Week 4.
- Week 8: Kenneth Walker III O/U 11.5, actual 1 (UNDER)
- Week 7: Travis Etienne Jr. O/U 19.5, actual 5 (UNDER)
- Week 7: James Robinson O/U 8.5, actual 0 (UNDER)
- Week 6: J.K. Dobbins O/U 12.5, actual 0 (UNDER)
- Week 5: Aaron Jones O/U 25.5, actual 17 (UNDER)
- Week 5: A.J. Dillon O/U 16.5, actual 0 (UNDER)
- Week 4: Khalil Herbert O/U 13.5, actual 24 (OVER)
- Week 3: Ezekiel Elliott O/U 11.5, actual 2 (UNDER)
- Week 3: Tony Pollard O/U 22.5, actual 0 (UNDER)
- Week 2: Christian McCaffrey O/U 42.5, actual 26 (UNDER)
- Week 1: Derrick Henry O/U 12.5, actual 0 (UNDER)
- Week 1: Dontrell Hilliard O/U 11.5, actual 61 (OVER)
Per Football Outsiders, the Giants are allowing 21.6 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to running backs, which ranks second in the NFL. Pierce has cleared double-digit receiving yards in four of eight games, but all four instances came against defenses ranked below-average in that metric.
Pierce also hasn’t shown the same explosiveness as a receiver that he has as a runner, barely averaging more yards per reception (4.9) than per carry (4.6). Of his 20 receptions, nine, or 45%, have gone for three yards or fewer, which gives this bet some extra outs should he see more involvement in the passing game than anticipated.
Pierce is averaging 12.2 receiving yards with a median of 11 and is a good bet to finish below expectation in this matchup, so I’d be comfortable betting the under down to 12.5.
