NFL Odds & Picks
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Chris Raybon: The Broncos are 0-4 in true road games (their 21-17 win against Jacksonville came on a neutral site). Given the substandard quality of their quarterback play and coaching, Denver simply needs every edge it can get. That is amplified by the injuries sustained on both sides of the ball.
On offense, the Broncos are without starting left tackle Garrett Bolles (IR; leg), starting center Lloyd Cushenberry III (IR; groin) and starting wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and KJ Hamler (hamstring).
The loss of Bolles and Cushenberry makes things easier for a Carolina pass rush that has come alive for 3.0 sacks per game over the past four. The Panthers averaged 1.4 sacks per game in the first seven games. And without Jeudy and Hamler, it should be easier for Carolina to take out Courtland Sutton with top corner Jaycee Horn, who's allowed 3.6 yards per target and a 31.3 passer rating on 320 coverage snaps.
On defense, the Broncos are missing key contributors at every level. Starting boundary corner Ronald Darby (ACL) and nickel CB K’Waun Williams (knee) are on IR. Safety Caden Sterns (hip) is also on injured reserve, which has proven to be a net loss because Sterns (76.7 PFF grade) had been outplaying Justin Simmons (70.0), who returned just as Sterns went down.
The once vaunted Denver pass rush is down to 15th in pressure rate (22.7%) and 16th in sack rate (6.8%) without Randy Gregory (IR; knee) and Bradley Chubb (traded), who combined for 45 pressures and eight sacks.
Like P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold should be an upgrade on Baker Mayfield. Mayfield simply could not play within this system, registering a league-worst 60.0% completion rate from a clean pocket. For context, Walker’s was 64.8% and Darnold’s was 66.7% last season.
With Mayfield on the bench, the Panthers offense should be able to do enough to outscore a Denver squad that is averaging a league-low 14.7 points per game and has been held to 16 points or fewer in eight of 10 contests.
The Panthers are averaging 22.2 points in non-Mayfield starts, with at least 21 points in four of five. They also topped 16 points in eight of Darnold’s 11 starts last season.
Per our Action Labs data, home dogs with a total below 42 are 44-29-1 (60%) ATS since 2018.
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Chris Raybon: This game sets up as a defensive battle.
When the Ravens are on offense, they want to run the ball (30.4 rushing attempts per game; seventh-most) and shorten the game (average of 30.36 seconds between plays; 31st). Mike Caldwell’s defense has fared well against opposing ground games, ranking ninth in rushing success rate allowed (39.3%) and 12th in expected points added per rush (-0.0184).
Even if the Ravens want to take advantage of a Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass, they will be forced to do so with a passing game not in peak form.
They will be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley (ankle), whose 90.0 PFF pass-blocking grade ranks second among 77 qualified tackles. They continue to be without No. 1 wide receiver Rashod Bateman (IR; foot) and just lost No. 2 tight end Isaiah Likely (ankle) — who helped offset the loss of Bateman with 18 catches, 206 yards and 2 TDs — for at least this week. Their current top two wide receivers, Devin Duvernay (hamstring) and Demarcus Robinson (hip), are both listed as questionable after missing practice time this week.
The Ravens defense has gone up to another level since the acquisition of linebacker Roquan Smith and the return of edge rusher Tyus Bowser, allowing just 16 points in two games. Baltimore should be able to handle a middling Jags offense that ranks 21st in points per game (21.6).
Opposing offenses often struggle to deal with the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, which has helped the Jaguars allow just 14 points per game at home compared to 24.8 away.
According to our Action Labs data, the under is 10-2 (83%) all-time in Trevor Lawrence’s home starts, covering by an average of 8.5 points. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season.
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Chris Raybon: Rain and winds of 12-plus mph are expected in Cleveland, which favors the Browns’ rushing attack that ranks fourth in DVOA.
Their biggest weakness has been defending the run (32nd in DVOA), which is less of an issue against the Bucs as they rank last in rushing yards per game (70.1) and per carry (3.1).
The Bucs have won by more than three points only four times this season, while the Browns have lost by more than three only three times despite a 3-7 record. The Browns scored at least 23 points in six of 10 games while the Bucs have been held under 23 in nine of 10.
As I've mentioned before, underdogs by at least 3.5 with a game total of 47 or less are 49-22 (69%) ATS this season.
And regardless of the total, fading public favorites of more than a field goal, like the Bucs, who are getting 64% of the bets as of Saturday afternoon, has been even more profitable. Dogs getting no more than half of the bet tickets go 46-19-1 (71%) ATS, according to our Action Labs data.
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