NFL Odds & Picks
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Chris Raybon: Fant has been held under 3.5 receptions in seven of 10 games, including seven of eight when not facing the Cardinals, who rank 31st in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the most catches per game to the position (7.2).
He is averaging 5.5 receptions per game against the Cardinals and 2.4 receptions per game against everyone else. Just three of nine tight ends listed with a reception prop against the Raiders this season have hit the over.
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Chris Raybon: Goodwin has caught at least two passes in each of the past four games and six of eight games overall this season. He has emerged as the team’s clear-cut No. 3 wide receiver and registered a season-high 83% route participation rate in the last game.
With Dee Eskridge (hand) on IR, that trend should continue. I have Goodwin projected for 2.4 receptions and a 69.6% chance of clearing 1.5.
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Chris Raybon: Kittle had a dream matchup against the Cardinals last week and still caught only four passes, barely clearing his receptions prop of 3.5. His overall monster line of 4/84/2 triggered a rise in his receptions prop to 4.5, but I think it’s fair to say that increase is unwarranted.
Kittle has been held to fewer than 4.5 catches in five of eight games, including three of four games since the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey. And while the Cardinals allow the most receptions per game to tight ends (7.2), the Saints allow the fourth fewest (3.6).
Of the 11 tight ends listed with a receptions prop against New Orleans this season, eight (73%) have stayed under.
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Chris Raybon:Williams ran a route on 64% of the dropbacks last week and now Darrell Henderson is out of the picture. The Chiefs have been generous to opposing backfields, allowing 7.1 receptions per game, second-most.
As the primary receiving back in what is likely to be negative game script, I’m projecting Williams for 3.1 catches this afternoon.
