NFL Week 3 Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs. Jaguars
This is a good spot to buy low on a Texans team that has played better than its final scores indicate. Despite opening the season with back-to-back double-digit losses, the Texans won the total yardage battle in both games, outgaining Baltimore 268-265 in Week 1 and Indianapolis 389-353 in Week 2. What has done Houston in is a 16.7% red zone conversion rate on offense (32nd) and a 77.8% red zone conversion rate allowed on defense (29th), but total yardage is a far more reliable indicator of future success than red zone performance, which involves a lot of luck and typically regresses strongly to the mean.
There are a number of metrics that suggest the gap between these two teams is not as pronounced as this line suggests (and no, the Texans’ 9-1 straight-up (SU) record and 5-1 SU record as an underdog over the past five seasons is not one of them).
- Through two weeks, C.J. Stroud has better marks than Trevor Lawrence in Expected Points Added per play (-0.072 to -0.205) and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (-1.5% vs. -4.9%), and QBR (36.2 vs. 34.9).
- The Texans rank 25th in offensive EPA per play (-0.143), but the Jaguars rank 31st (-0.251).
- The Jaguars defense ranks tied for fifth in pressure rate at 29.3%, but the Texans defense is only three spots back at 25.3%.
Lawrence is too talented not to turn things around, but to this point in his career, he’s been a quarterback you want to back as an underdog (16-12 ATS) and fade as a favorite (2-6 ATS, including 0-4 when -4 or more).
That is not the only trend working in the Texans’ favor. Per our Action Labs data, Week 3 dogs that are 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS have gone 44-26 (63%) ATS since 2005, beating the closing line by 1.96 points per game.
Regardless of ATS record, dogs with an 0-2 SU record are 41-25-1 (62%) ATS since 2005 when facing an opponent that has lost at least one of its first two games, and it improves to 34-14 (71%) since 2010.
And no matter the SU or ATS record of either side, divisional dogs have crushed in Week 3, going 47-26-4 (64%) ATS since 2005 while beating the closing line by 2.24 points per game on average.
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Saints vs. Packers
Despite boasting a 2-0 ATS record and a quarterback who is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes, the Packers appear to be in a precarious position. Green Bay just cannot seem to shake its one-step-forward, two-steps-back injury bug: Just as Aaron Jones and Christian Watson returned from their hamstring injuries to practice on a limited basis, Elgton Jenkins (knee) was ruled out and David Bakhtiari (knee) missed the entire week of practice and also seems unlikely to play at far less than 100%, ravaging the left side of the offensive line ahead of a matchup with a Saints defense that is seventh in sack rate (9.5%) and fourth in EPA per play (-0.152).
On top of that, Jaire Alexander was an ominous Friday addition to the injury report with a back issue. Alexander is known as one of the NFL’s premier corners but failed to live up to his reputation last week, allowing Drake London to catch 4-of-5 targets for 54 yards and a touchdown and giving up a 45-yard bomb to Mack Hollins. The late-week injury and recent struggles do not bode well against the trio of Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed, who have helped the Saints to the fifth-most receiving yards per game by wide receivers through two weeks (233.0).
The Packers’ concerns go beyond injuries, however. Their 38-20 win over the Bears in Week 1 looks less and less impressive as the Bears dumpster fire rages on, and the margin was already largely fueled by turnover luck. Last week, the blown 24-12 fourth-quarter lead was deserved, as the Falcons averaged nearly a full yard better per play (5.72 to 4.77) while getting outgained 446-224 – a difference of 222 yards.
Even as Jones and Watson begin to ramp back up, Love and the offense are in line for regression, as it goes without saying that their zero turnovers and 83.3% red zone conversion rate are unsustainable. Love’s 55.8% completion rate ranks third-worst among 33 qualified quarterbacks; every other passer in the bottom 10 has at least one interception, and eight have multiple interceptions.
The Saints are on the opposite end of the spectrum, having underachieved with their wins against the Titans and Panthers coming by a combined total of four points despite outgaining them by outgaining each of them by 66 and 102, respectively. Given the talent at receiver, the Saints figure to improve on their 37.5% red-zone conversion rate, which ranks 29th.
Ironically, the Saints' only position with injury concerns is running back, but that inadvertently helped solve their red-zone woes, as No. 4 running back Tony Jones notched a pair of short-yardage scores on Monday after Jamaal Williams went down with a hamstring injury. Williams is out this week and Alvin Kamara is still suspended, but rookie third-round pick Kendre Miller is over his hamstring injury and will make his debut. Taysom Hill carried nine times for 75 yards last week and gives the Saints yet another option against a Packers run defense allowing 166 yards per game, third-most.
Thanks to a late Panther touchdown on Monday night, the Saints pushed the -3 and still do not have an ATS win despite being 2-0 SU. Per our Action Labs data, winless ATS dogs in Week 3 are 58-41-1 (59%) since 2005, beating the closing line by 1.8 points per game.
Falcons vs. Lions
With the Vikings in hot pursuit of the all-time record for giveaways, the Packers blowing double-digit fourth-quarter leads to a team that may or may not be aware of the legalization of the forward pass, and the Bears picking up the slack for Aaron Rodgers by owning themselves, the Lions’ injury massacre has flown under the radar. Since the season began the Lions have seen eight of their best players go down with injury (two in Week 1, six last week), and all but one of them will miss this game.
Let’s start with the offense, keeping in mind that from an EPA per play perspective, the Lions (-0.003, 15th) already are rated lower than the Falcons (0.007, 12th).
- RB David Montgomery (doubtful, thigh): It’s nice to have the electric Jahmyr Gibbs as the next man up, but the Lions run game still takes a hit in short yardage and between the tackles without Montgomery.
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (questionable, toe): The Lions’ leading receiver is dealing with a bruised bone in the toe, but plans to play through it with a steel plate in his shoe. There is also the risk that the coaching staff could be extra cautious with him with a short turnaround ahead of a Thursday Night Football matchup with the Packers with first place in the division potentially on the line.
- RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (out, knee): 78.6 PFF grade ranks fourth of 68 qualified guards through two weeks.
- LT Taylor Decker (out, ankle): Detroit’s highest-graded starting offensive lineman in each of the past five seasons will miss his second straight game. Though the Lions have the luxury of kicking Penei Sewell from right to left tackle, there is still a big drop-off from a Decker-Sewell combo to Sewell and Matt Nelson, who has allowed a whopping 45 pressures in 11 career starts at right tackle. Adding Calais Campbell and David Onyemata alongside Grady Jarrett makes the Falcons defensive line a lot more dangerous in this type of spot. The Falcons are a respectable 17th in pressure rate (24.6%) this season after finishing dead last in 2022 with a 14.6% pressure rate.
Both of these defenses have been bad for a long time, but the Falcons enter this game 13th in defensive EPA per play (-0.084) while the Lions rank 25th (0.056) and could trend down further in the absence of…
- DE James Houston (IR, ankle): He was second on the team with 8.0 sacks last season and is one of only five Lions defenders to register a hit on the quarterback this season.
- DE Josh Paschal (IR, knee): Losing the 2022 second-round pick after 17 snaps in Week 1 is a big reason the Lions rank last in the NFL with just one sack through two weeks.
- S Kerby Joseph (out, hip): He led the team in interceptions (4) and forced fumbles (2) last season and is their second-highest graded run defender this season.
- S C.J. Gardner Johnson (IR, pectoral): He came over from the Eagles after tying for the NFL lead with six interceptions last season and made an impact in his first two weeks with the Lions, leading the team in solo tackles (12) and grading out as their third-best run defender.
Missing versatile safeties like Gardner-Johnson and Joseph is a tough blow against a Falcons offense that primarily operates out of 2TE or 3TE personnel and features explosive pass catchers Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith at the position. Their absences also lower Detroit’s odds of picking off Desmond Ridder, who has thrown just one interception in six career starts.
The Lions showed they are not yet a dominant team by losing by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite against the Seahawks last week, putting their ATS margin into the negative despite winning by 1 point as a 4-point underdog in Week 1 at Kansas City. Historically, a team being favored despite a negative ATS margin has been a major red flag in Week 3: According to our Action Labs data, Week 3 favorites by 7 or less with a negative ATS margin are just 35-63-2 (36%) ATS since 2005, failing to cover by an average of 2.81 points per game.
Pick: Falcons +3.5 (-120; Bet to +2)
