Jaguars vs. Packers Odds
Green Bay exacted revenge in San Francisco with a big 34-17 Week 9 win over the 49ers. Now the Packers are 6-2 and in first place in the NFC North.
A Week 10 home matchup against the 1-7 Jacksonville Jaguars should provide little challenge, but can the Packers cover the double-digit point spread? I think they can. Let's take a closer look.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars enter Week 10 without several key players, including quarterback Gardner Minshew (thumb). Two more potential missing pieces could hinder the Jaguars further — center Brandon Linder (back) and safety Josh Jones (chest) are listed as questionable, and both are critical to a successful game plan.
The Jaguars received a boost last week with an impressive performance from rookie quarterback Jake Luton in Minshew's place. The sixth-round pick from Oregon State threw for 304 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also ran once for 13 yards.
A road start at Green Bay, however, is much different than a home game against Houston. Look for the Jaguars to lean heavily on rookie running back James Robinson, who ranks first among all running backs with a 83.8% opportunity share, per PlayerProfiler.
The Jaguars defense will need to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field by controlling time of possession. That will translate to heavy volume for Robinson against a Packers defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points, second-most receiving yards and 15 total touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Luton should again target explosive WR1 D.J. Chark and speedy veteran Chris Conley. In last week's 27-25 loss to Houston, Chark and Conley saw a combined 20 targets — Chark's seven receptions, 146 yards and one touchdown equated to the fifth-best wide receiver performance of the week.
The main problem with Jacksonville has been its defense. The Jaguars rank last in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, including last against the pass. This is a clear problem against Rodgers, wide receiver Davante Adams and versatile running back Aaron Jones.
Jacksonville allows the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 6.3 receptions per game.
Green Bay Packers
The biggest question for Green Bay is the status of top cornerback Jaire Alexander.
Alexander left last week's 34-17 win over San Francisco with a concussion is listed as doubtful after missing practice all week. He would be a huge loss for a Green Bay secondary that will be challenged by Chark, Jacksonville’s top wideout.
Fortunately, Green Bay should have the services of left tackle David Bakhtiari, who missed the last three games with a chest injury. And while running back A.J. Dillon remains out after testing positive for COVID-19, fellow rusher Jamaal Williams will return after sitting out as a "high-risk" close contact.
Leading rusher Aaron Jones looked strong last week with five receptions and 79 total yards against the 49ers and should be a full go against the Jaguars. With extra time to rest against a league-worst Jacksonville defense, Jones is in the DFS catbird seat as a multi-faceted threat.
Meanwhile, Rodgers should see little pressure from a Jacksonville defensive line that ranks last in the NFL with only eight sacks. With Adams and the deep threat of Marquez-Valdes Scantling, the Packers will put pressure on the Jaguars defense throughout the game.
Jacksonville has been particularly poor against opposing WR1s, putting Adams in line for another massive performance. Both Will Fuller (5/100/1) and Brandin Cooks (3/83/1) broke off huge scoring plays last week against an overmatched Jacksonville secondary.
Making matters worse, Jacksonville allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, making Robert Tonyan (fifth in TE fantasy points per game) a legitimate threat.
Unless the Packers defense puts forth its worst performance of the season, they should win this game comfortably.
Jaguars-Packers Pick
Betting on Rodgers as a home favorite has been a profitable trend over his career, per our Bet Labs data:
With Rodgers' near-full complement of weapons, it's hard to envision Jacksonville's league-worst defense putting up any resistance.
Luton showed off his big arm against Houston and will certainly makes plays against an Alexander-less secondary. The Packers' league-worst run defense should also yield production to the versatile Robinson.
Still, I'm laying the 13.5 points with Rodgers and taking the over 49. The wind has bettors scared, keeping this line in a reasonable range.
This matchup is similar to Green Bay's 28-22 home loss to Minnesota just two weeks ago — despite heavy winds, both teams found ways to score. Rodgers' arm is strong, and Jacksonville will lean on Robinson as the Vikings did with Dalvin Cook.
I expect a high-scoring game with a two-touchdown win by Green Bay. I would take this spread up to Green Bay -14 and the total up to 49.5 points.
PICKS: Packers -14; Over 47.5
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