NFL Odds & Picks
Friday night brought us four picks and three more winners in the NFL preseason. That brings our staff to 5-1 through the first two full nights of the schedule.
On Saturday, we feast. There's an eight-game slate throughout the day, starting at 1 p.m. ET and ending at 8. It's as good as it gets — at least in the preseason.
Our staff of betting analysts are back at it, with five picks from four games on Saturday. Check out their breakdowns below.
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Isaiah Sirois: Andy Reid has a simple preseason formula: the first team plays the first quarter, the second team plays the second quarter, and so on. Reid used a similar strategy last year, and the Chiefs went undefeated in the preseason. Look for Patrick Mahomes to score once or twice as he builds chemistry with his new receivers.
In contrast, the Chicago Bears plan to give their starters 10 to 20 plays. Head coach Matt Eberflus said that number “changes by [the] guy,” so it’s unclear who will see the most run. Unfortunately, Chicago will likely struggle, regardless of who Eberflus sends out there.
The Bears simply lack depth. They have three quarterbacks, one of whom is Nathan Peterman. The receiving corps resembles a USFL team and features castoffs like Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis and Tajae Sharpe. When asked about the offensive line, Chicago’s own offensive coordinator admitted the unit was “a ways away” and that the coaching staff had “a lot of information still to find out.”
The Bears will find out a lot of information tomorrow — but it won’t be of the positive variety. Back the Chiefs here up to the key number of -3.
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Brandon Anderson: One of the more reliable indicators in the preseason is coaching history. Some coaches put little effort into these early throw-away games and don't bother running the starters much. Others tend to show up.
History tells us Sean McDermott's teams show up.
McDermott is 10-5 in the preseason straight up — and he's an impressive 8-3 straight up as an underdog, which his Bills are slightly in this one, even at home. In fact, McDermott's Bills have won eight straight times straight-up as underdogs.
If you blindly bet $100 on McDermott and Buffalo moneyline every time they're preseason underdogs, you'd be up $762 lifetime with a 69% return on investment, per BetLabs.
The Bills are a loaded and deep roster, maybe the best one in the NFL. Even if some of the star names don't play much, bank on McDermott getting whatever guys are out there ready in another underdog spot and play the Bills ML and a chance for a ninth straight underdog win.
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Sam Farley: The Dolphins' trip to Tampa to face the Buccaneers has a little bit more interest than usual given the tampering of Tom Brady, although it’ll be background noise without Brady on the field.
Brady’s absence means plenty of Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask for Tampa Bay. It’s a good opportunity for Trask, who was drafted in the second round last year, with Brady’s days in Tampa looking unlikely to extend beyond this season.
Todd Bowles is 7-9 in preseason as a head coach, but it’s worth flagging that he has a .750 win percentage in Week 1 of the preseason, indicating that he takes these more seriously and potentially playing more of his established names.
We won’t see many of Bowles' stars, but there are fights for roster spots all over the field, particularly at wide receiver. That means we should see the likes of Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller, a couple talented guys who have had their moments with Brady under center, get chances here.
There’s uncertainty over whether we’ll see Tua Tagovailoa for Miami, but the Dolphins have a very talented backup in Teddy Bridgewater. We won’t see any of their talented weapons on offense, which is a shame, but that plays into the hands of the Bucs who are great value at +100 to win this given Bowles’ success in Week 1 of the preseason.
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Blake Krass: These preseason games often come down to who has something to prove and who actually wants to play. I think Andy Dalton will be trying to prove himself to his new team, especially after a subpar season in Chicago last year. The Saints also signed K.J. Costello to compete with Ian Book behind Dalton, giving them two hungry young QBs with plenty to prove.
On the other side, Davis Mills will only be playing a series or two at QB for the Texans. With backup QB Kyle Allen out with an injury, that lines up Jeff Driskel to play three full quarters of football. If you have watched Jeff Driskel play quarterback in the NFL, you know that’s bad news for the Texans.
I'm backing New Orleans' moneyline as a pick'em and will play their spread to -2.5
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Sam Farley: The Sean Payton-less Saints begin their preseason against a rebuilding Texans team, although starting quarterback Jameis Winston will not be in action.
Dalton will get the start, having earned rave reviews so far in training camp. Book should see significant game time with Taysom Hill now officially a tight end.
On the other side, Mills may play longer than you'd expect with Allen out. That may not scream "Bet the over!" This is the preseason, though.
These are talented quarterbacks that’ll be playing for both teams, most of whom have a reasonable amount of regular-season experience. For that reason, I’m expecting the quality of offensive play to be higher than usual and for the total to be smashed.
This number is around 35 and 36 at most books, but Caesars had it available at 33.5 as of Friday night.
