NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Panthers +3 at Falcons |
| Eagles-Lions Under 48.5 |
| Titans-Colts Under 51 |
Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest edges based on his NFL Power Ratings. He has a 438-333-6 (56%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
Panthers +3
1 p.m. ET Kickoff
Last week, the Panthers hit rock bottom as they lost their fourth straight game and benched Sam Darnold early in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, Carolina invested too much into Darnold to move on from him (yet), so he will start this week's game. The Falcons defense ranks 30th in pass DVOA, and they generates the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (17.6%). Darnold is terrible when faced with pressure, but he should be given a clean pocket for much of the game and bounce back with a solid performance.
The Falcons offense has looked great the past three games, but all three opponents have defenses rank 25th or worse in DVOA. The Panthers defense will be a tougher test (they rank 11th) and will likely be getting back LB Shaq Thompson and newly-acquired Stephon Gilmore should make his debut.
I like buying low on Carolina and selling high on Atlanta here.
Eagles-Lions Under 48.5
1 p.m. ET Kickoff
The Lions’ early-down pass frequency in neutral-game situations ranks dead last in the NFL. Jared Goff has the lowest aDot among qualified QBs at a paltry 6.3 yards. Detroit’s run-heavy, ultra-conservative offense has turned the Lions into an “under” machine, as the under has hit in five straight games.
The Eagles have struggled offensively early in games, only to pad their stats later in garbage time. Considering they are 3.5-point favorites, we could see Philadelphia finally get a chance to lean on the run game a bit more this week. I'm expecting this game to be fairly close for all four quarters, which should result in both of these teams playing in a lower-scoring environment than a typical total of 48.5. I'm projecting this at 46.5 and would bet down to 47.5
Titans-Colts Under 51
1 p.m. ET Kickoff
The total seems a bit high here, considering both teams will likely be leaning on their running game, and both teams play at a slow pace. (The Titans rank 25th in pace of play, while the Colts rank 28th.)
The Titans will be without Julio Jones again this week, which means they will continue to lean on Derrick Henry heavily. However, he has a brutal matchup against a Colts defense that currently ranks first in DVOA against the run.
The Colts have all five starting offensive linemen healthy for the first time all season and will likely lean on their stud RB Jonathan Taylor here. This is a matchup that will be more of a run-heavy, clock-killing battle, as opposed to a shootout that deserves a total in the 50s. I'm projecting this closer to 48 and would bet it down to 49.5.
