Bengals vs. Lions NFL Odds
| Bengals Odds | -3.5 |
| Lions Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. | |
After a tough overtime loss to the Packers last week, the Bengals will look to bounce back when they visit Ford Field to take on the Lions.
The Bengals (3-2) fought back in the fourth quarter to tie the game with just three minutes left, before ultimately seeing their efforts fall short in a 25-22 overtime loss last week. The Lions (0-5), meanwhile, are coming off a tough 19-17 loss of their own and saw their hopes at victory dashed by a late field goal from Greg Joseph with no time remaining.
In a game with a 3.5-point spread that projects to be close throughout, should we be looking towards player props for the best betting angle in this Week 6 bout?
Bengals Pass Offense Should Have Big Performance
Running back Joe Mixon (ankle) is officially listed as questionable, but he is fully expected to play and receive a normal workload.
Quarterback Joe Burrow has exceeded expectations for the Bengals since they made him the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Through five games this season, Burrow has completed 71.7% of his passes for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdown passes. Even more importantly, he’s winning games and has made the Bengals legitimate playoff contenders in the AFC.
This week he’ll have a great matchup against a Lions team that currently ranks 29th in total defensive DVOA, including 27th in pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders. That bodes well for Burrow and his top passing options, particularly rookie Ja’Marr Chase.
Per PFF’s WR/CB Matchup tool, Chase has a 97.0 matchup advantage against this Lions secondary, the second-best among all players projected to play in Week 6. Fellow wideout Tyler Boyd also ranks fourth in the league in that same metric with an 89.6 matchup advantage.
Mixon should also have no issues moving the ball on the ground in this one. The Lions' rush defense is also near the bottom of the league, ranking 28th in rush DVOA through five games.
Lions Offense Likely Won't Roar
Tight end T.J. Hockenson (knee) and running back D’Andre Swift (groin) are questionable for Sunday’s contest, but both are expected to play after participating in practice on Friday.
Despite a poor performance last week that saw just 203 passing yards and no touchdowns through the air, quarterback Jared Goff has played quite well overall on the season. Through five games, he’s completed 66.8% of his passes for 1,303 yards, seven touchdowns and just three interceptions. Since he took over, the Lions have been surprisingly competitive for an 0-5 team, with all but one game being decided by 10 points or less.
This week, he’ll have a tough matchup against a Bengals defense that currently ranks seventh among all teams with a 69.0 defense rating (per PFF) and 12th in pass DVOA.
Unfortunately for the Lions, things won’t be much easier for Swift on the ground. He’ll take on a Bengals run defense that currently ranks seventh in rush DVOA.
NFL Picks: Bengals vs. Lions
Through five games, Chase has established himself as the top passing option for Burrow and this Bengals offense. Part of that can be attributed to the chemistry the duo developed while at LSU, but the majority is due to the elite skill and speed combination that Chase provides.
Still relatively early in his rookie season, Chase has compiled an impressive 456 receiving yards and five touchdowns. In fact, he’s averaging 91 receiving yards per game and has eclipsed 77 yards in three of five games. Those are elite numbers for any player, never mind a rookie with just five starts under his belt.
This week the matchup could not be any better. Not only does he have one of the best individual matchups of any player this week, but he’ll also have it against one of the worst secondaries in all of football.
The Lions have shown a penchant for keeping games close this season, so negative game script should not affect the passing volume for the Bengals here. As such, I expect their passing attack to be firing away late into the fourth quarter.
I’m taking Chase to surpass 73.5 receiving yards and would be comfortable playing it all the way up to that 77-yard mark.
Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 73.5 Receiving Yards at PointsBet
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