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NFL Picks
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The Titans match up well with the Eagles. On offense, Derrick Henry should be able to shred an Eagles defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the run. And on defense, the Titans boast the league’s top-ranked run defense in DVOA.
The Eagles are undoubtedly one of the NFL’s best teams, but their margins have gotten closer in recent weeks as their luck has begun to even out. In Weeks 1-7, the Eagles had an average point differential of +11.0; from Week 8 on, their average point differential is +2.2.
This is the type of spot you want to back Mike Vrabel. According to our Action Labs data, the Titans are 21-7 (75%) ATS under Vrabel when they’re underdogs by three or more, covering by an average of 7.7 points per game.
Pick: Titans +4.5 (Bet to +4) |
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The Jaguars had a nice comeback win against Baltimore, but the Lions should have the edge here. In terms of DVOA, Detroit is the better team overall (16th vs. 18th) on offense (12th vs. 14th), and on defense (24th vs. 26th).
Home-field advantage also figures to play a major factor here, as the Lions have been a different team at home, which makes sense since Jared Goff has always played better indoors.
Home: 30.5 points per game, 384 total yards per game, +1.0 point differential
Road: 18.4 points per game, 338 total yards per game, -7.3 point differential
The Jaguars rank 30th in DVOA against the pass on defense, which could turn into a major issue with the Lions finally healthy. Not only do the Lions have their core group of wide receivers they started the season healthy with in Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond, but they will also get the services of first-round pick Jameson Williams for the first time this season.
Meanwhile, the Lions’ pass defense has been improving in a major way. When they fired defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant at the end of October they were 32nd in pass defense DVOA. Just over a month later, they are up to 19th. Improvements of the last month notwithstanding, this is a difficult matchup for Trevor Lawrence stylistically, as the Lions blitz at the fifth-highest rate and play coverage at the fifth-highest rate. Entering Week 13, Lawrence’s 64.7 PFF grade when blitzed ranks 26th and his 6.4 yards per attempt ranks 30th among 39 qualified quarterbacks.
Likewise, the Jaguars’ 6.9 yards per targeted pass and 10.1 yards per completion against man coverage rank 26th and 29th respectively; against zone, they are 18th in yards per targeted pass (7.9) and 16th in yards per completion (10.7).
Whereas the Lions have been better at home, the Jaguars have been inconsistent on the road. According to our Action Labs data, Jacksonville is just 3-10 (23%) ATS in Lawrence’s road starts, falling short of covering the spread by an average of 4.7 points per game.
Pick: Lions PK (Bet to -2)
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The Giants have no pass-catching threats besides Darius Slayton and will likely struggle to run the ball with Saquon Barkley against a Washington run defense that is ranked fourth in DVOA. Barkley has been struggling since his Week 6 shoulder injury, averaging just 3.78 yards per carry over his past seven games after averaging 5.51 in his first four.
On the other side of the ball, the extended rest should help the Giants get healthier on defense and come out well prepared for a Washington offense that has been held to under 20 points in three of Taylor Heinicke’s last five starts. Washington has also become extremely run-heavy since Heinicke has taken the reins from Carson Wentz. Excluding kneel downs, Washington called a designed run on 32.5% of offensive plays with Wentz compared to 52.1% with Heinicke. As a result, the Commanders now sit 29th in situation-neutral pace. The Giants operate at a below-average pace as well, clocking in at 21st.
Per our Action Labs data, late-season divisional unders in the early window have gone 234-154-8 (60%) since 2003.
And since the start of 2021, outdoor Divisional unders have gone 60-27 (62%), including a 24-10 (72%) mark this season.
And in Daniel Jones’ 25 career home starts, the under is 18-7 (72%).
Pick: Under 40.5 (Bet to 39) |
