NFL Week 6 Picks
 | |
Blake Krass: The Giants are deserving of the credit they are receiving for their 4-1 start. However, when you look deeper into their wins, it is clear they are being slightly overvalued. Meanwhile, the Ravens are one of the better 3-2 teams and they could easily be 5-0 despite a really difficult schedule.
Daniel Jones has been much worse at MetLife Stadium than on the road over his career. Since drafting Jones in 2019, the Giants are 7-13 (35%) ATS as home underdogs. In three home games this year, the Giants beat the Bears and Panthers by one score and lost to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. In those games, Jones averaged 147 passing yards and only threw for one touchdown.
The Ravens have the No. 2 offense in the NFL according to DVOA and will face a Giants defense that is 25th in defensive DVOA. The Ravens have already been to MetLife once this year, when they dominated the Jets 24-9. I expect a similar result here for Lamar Jackson and co., and I’d play this up to Ravens -7.
Learn about our exclusive BetMGM bonus code!
| |
Brandon Anderson: I keep checking the standings, and the Giants keep staying 4-1 somehow. Credit Brian Daboll for really getting the most out of this roster. But Baltimore is really good, and this could be a reality check.
New York’s defense hasn’t been particularly great outside of pressuring the quarterback, a Wink Martindale specialty. Hey, guess who knows exactly how to play a blitzing Martindale defense after practicing against it every day the last few years? It’s Lamar Jackson and Wink’s old Ravens squad, and even better now that Ronnie Stanley has returned to bolster the line.
Bet Baltimore at FanDuel Right Now
Baltimore ranks No. 2 in passing DVOA and should light up this secondary. This is another bad situational spot for a post-London team without a bye. The trends tell us to take the opponent’s team total over at 6-1, and that lines up perfectly with the matchup so bet the Ravens over 24.5.
Credit the good Giants start, but this team is almost certainly getting too much credit now. Our Action Network Luck Rankings have New York’s win-loss record 36.5% more lucky than Baltimore’s, the highest differential in the league this week. Teams with at least a -33.3% luck differential are 15-2 ATS. The hidden numbers match the eye test: the Giants are winning but overrated.
The Ravens have only trailed for a few minutes all season. Look for Baltimore to hang a big number on the Giants, and I expect this line to hit the key number by the weekend so don’t wait around.
| |
Kody Malstrom: Talk about a gross overreaction. I will acknowledge that head coach Brian Daboll has done a terrific job thus far, but I'm not exactly buying into the Giants hype.
Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-caliber season, one that will surely continue against the Giants defense. Lamar should be able to throw all over the Giants secondary and burn them on the ground when they send pressure.
This offense is built to torch them, especially when New York's defense may be in a sleepy spot off its trip to London.
While I'm considering the spread, I will take the Ravens team total over instead as they are hitting at a high clip against post-London teams. I also get to avoid a potential backdoor cover.
Take the Ravens team total over at no higher than 27.5 while also monitoring for a potential live number on them at -3 or better.
| |
Simon Hunter: I tend to avoid an over with a backup — or third-string — quarterback, but this spot is too good to pass up.
It doesn’t matter if it’s Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson, Miami is going to find success against this Vikings defense. Everything I’ve read about Minnesota is how tired the team is, traveling to and from London, playing a divisional game at home and then traveling down to South Florida for an afternoon kickoff in the heat.
On the other side, the Dolphins just gave up 40 points to the Jets. This isn’t the same defense we saw under Brian Flores. I expect Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson to feast in Week 6.
I’d bet this over up to 48.
 | |
Jessica Gridiron: The Vikings are the kings of close games. Even with a massive lead, Minnesota always finds themselves in tight games late. With this contest being played in hot and humid Miami during the middle of the day, the Vikings will have everything working against them.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, deploy the 13th highest blitz percentage while also boasting the fifth best run defense in the league according to EPA. If Miami can shut down the Minnesota running attack led by Dalvin Cook and effectively pressure quarterback Kirk Cousins, it will have a legitimate chance to win this game outright.
The Vikings defense ranks right around the 20s in defensive pass and rush EPA individually and as an entire defense.
Miami should employ a run-heavy attack with a dual-headed monster featuring Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds. This will ease the pressure off rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson and allow Miami to rely on defense, field position and clock control.
| |
Jessica Gridiron: It’s time for the Kenny Pickett show.
With another full week of practice under his belt, Pickett should lead a much more efficient offense. After facing the Bills last week, Pickett has his work cut out for him again as defense is the strength of the Buccaneers.
Pittsburgh should utilize a balanced attack with a steady dose of running back Najee Harris to limit pass attempts for Pickett. With this increase in rushing, the game clock should continue to run and shorten the game. The Steelers enter Sunday with the 13th most efficient running attack according to EPA and they should lean hard on Harris in this one.
The Buccaneers also own the 20th-ranked run defense regarding EPA and they allow the seventh highest success rate to opposing teams on the ground. Pickett was able to amass 327 yards through the air against the Bills secondary and he should be able to move the ball enough.
With the Steelers staying within striking distance, I expect a potential backdoor cover, or for them to stay within range the entire game. Take the Steelers +10 and enjoy.
| |
John LanFranca: Whenever the Bengals get brought up, the first thing people tend to talk about is the surprising lack of offensive production to start the season. What they fail to mention is the Bengals defense is playing at a very high level.
Eight defenses have separated themselves from the pack, and Cincinnati's unit is one of them. In fact, out of those top eight, only one other team has played a top-ten rated DVOA slate of offensive teams when averaging their opponents thus far; this defense may actually be closer to one of the elites than we realize.
The Bengals defense is the best in the league when it comes to completion percentage allowed (57.4%). They are making it incredibly difficult for opponents to sustain drives, as only 8.8% of all possessions has resulted in a touchdown (tied for first in NFL). I do not see the Saints offense bucking this trend.
Cincinnati should be the healthier team as well. Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Marshon Lattimore are key pieces for the Saints who will be missing from action. I expect the Bengals to dominate the game defensively and get a win on the road in doing so.
Bet Bengals -2.5 at FanDuel Right Now
| |
Derek Farnsworth: The Colts were shut out by the Jaguars in Week 2, but we shouldn't have been overly surprised given Indianapolis hasn’t won in Jacksonville since 2014.
If the Colts are able to win this week, they will have beaten the Jaguars at home in each of the last five years. Granted, coaches and rosters have changed during that time period, but it's certainly an intriguing trend.
Add Colts -2 to Your FanDuel QuickSlip
Even if you don't believe in trends, the Colts are coming off a potentially season-saving win against the Broncos. They've had 10 days to prepare for this game, and we've seen the Jaguars come crashing back down to earth over the last two weeks, looking like the team we thought they'd be.
 | |
Dylan Wilkerson: The Jets are top ten in QB pressure rate and QB knockdown rate. Combine this with the fact that they only blitz on approximately 18% of defensive plays, and you get a recipe for forced passes while keeping men in coverage.
The Packers receiving core is lacking, and even if Aaron Rodgers plays to form, it is likely a receiver bobbles a pass and the Jets come down with it. To top it off, the Jets have forced seven interceptions in five games.
Give me a plus sign next to Rodgers to throw an INT this week.
 | |
Cody Goggin: Everything aligns perfectly for Rhamondre Stevenson to have another big game.
With Damien Harris sidelined, Stevenson should get the bulk of the carries. Last week, Stevenson set career highs in rushes (25) and rushing yards (161) after Harris left mid-game.
Mac Jones is questionable again with an ankle injury so we may see rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe make his second career start. With either a hobbled Jones or an inexperienced Zappe, I expect New England’s play-calling to be slanted toward the run, leading to more volume for Stevenson.
This is not just a volume play though. Stevenson has shown his extraordinary talents already and will be able to take advantage of an atrocious Browns rushing defense.
Cleveland's unit ranks 32nd in PFF run defense grade with a 34.8. The next closest team to them is the Texans at 40.5. Last week, the Browns allowed 10.8 yards per carry to Austin Ekeler and they also have allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the league this year.
Cleveland’s defense has allowed 0.191 EPA per play against the run this season, which is almost double the next closest team. This is a higher points added than potential MVP candidates Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have averaged this year.
You can find Stevenson at -112 to score a touchdown right now at BetRivers. I would take this down to -130 and wouldn’t mind sprinkling him to score two at +575.
| |
Sam Farley: The Buccaneers’ trip to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers already feels like a potential bloodbath and the line backs that up.
Last week, the Bucs beat the Falcons without Cameron Brate, who was in concussion protocol. That allowed rookie TE Cade Otton the chance to shine and he seized the opportunity.
The rookie hauled in 6-of-7 targets for 43 yards and played 94% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps. More importantly is that he's earned the trust of the coaching staff and Tom Brady; the team has moved him above Kyle Rudolph to second on the depth chart this week.
It's likely that we see Brate back on the field, but given how well Otton performed, he should continue to see targets and get the opportunity to grow. He looks like the TE1 of the future for the Bucs and can help Brady win now.
You can get +800 on Otton to score a touchdown, a huge price increase from Brate's +340. This is well worth a low-stake speculative bet.
