NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Jets at Patriots
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I’m projecting the total closer to 39.5, so this is another line I want to lock in early in the week. As of writing, 79% of the action has been on the over, yet the line has dropped from 43 down to 42.5 (see more public betting data here).
The Jets' secondary has been brutal (23rd in Football Outsiders' DVOA vs. pass) but they might be getting back Marcus Maye back, which should help. Either way, I expect the Pats to lean on their run game and defense to get the win here, making this a low-scoring environment.
Bill Belichick will put together a defensive game plan that will frustrate and confuse rookie Zach Wilson, who threw four interceptions against the Pats in the 25-6 loss in Week 2.
If you don't already have access to 43 (shop for the best real-time line here), I would recommend buying the half-point up to it since it's a key number for totals, but I still like under at 42.5 as well and would bet this down to 41.5 points.
Broncos at Browns
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Editor's note: The following was written before news broke that Case Keenum will start for the Browns, but as he details here, Koerner would still bet this to a pick'em.
I'm projecting this line at Broncos -2.5 given all of the Browns injuries, so I wanted to lock in +3.5 while I can.
Not only are Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt out, but Baker Mayfield is attempting to play through a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. There's a chance he won’t be able to play through the pain, in which case we see Case Keenum under center. Plus offensive tackles Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin were unable to play in Week 6, so there's some concern if they'll be ready on the short week.
And, last but not least, the Browns could be without Odell Beckham Jr. (shoulder) while Jarvis Landry may not be ready to return from his MCL injury.
Needless to say, the Browns could end up playing mainly backups against an underrated Broncos team that can lean on Teddy Bridgewater and their running game to lead them to victory on a short week.
In what could be a low-scoring ugly game, getting +3.5 is extremely valuable, so be sure to shop for the best line with our NFL odds page.
