NFL Betting Odds, Picks: Betting Previews, Spread Bets, Total Predictions for Week 5 Sunday Games

Week 5 NFL Picks

Eagles at Panthers Odds

Mike Vitanza: With McCaffrey heading towards another missed game, it’s likely we’ll see the Panthers lean on Darnold and the passing game more than they would on a typical Sunday.

Given the matchup, Darnold should see his skill players open all day against this porous Eagles secondary. While Hurts and the Eagles have a tougher matchup, I expect them to be able to do enough to keep this one close.

Through four weeks so far, Darnold is averaging 36.5 pass attempts per game. During that time, his passing yardage totals are as follows: 279, 305, 304 and 301.

If the Eagles can hold up their end of the bargain, the projected game script should allow for Darnold to cruise past 270 passing yards here yet again.

As such, I’m taking the over on Darnold’s yardage total here. It currently sits at 265.5 yards, but I would play it all the way up to 275 yards if the line moves before kickoff.

Pick: Darnold Over 265.5 passing yards (-114) at FanDuel | Play to 275

Packers at Bengals Odds

Brandon Anderson: This line remains suspicious too. It felt suspiciously low at -3 on Sunday, and it sat there all week without budging when you just know everyone and their uncle is betting on Rodgers as a field goal favorite.

It's tough to talk yourself into the Bengals here unless you're just playing the numbers and contrarian angle, trying to outsmart the bookmakers.

I'm not falling for it. What would this line have been a month ago? The Packers would've been favored by a touchdown easily, maybe even double digits.

We're really going to make this a field goal instead because Cincinnati has beaten the Steelers and Jags? I don't buy it.

Aaron Rodgers is 54-29-1 against the spread (ATS) as a one-score favorite in his career. That's a 65.1% cover rate. And remember, that's even with the books pushing the line a little towards Green Bay as a public team and knowing you want to bet on Rodgers — and he's winning and covering anyway.

Still, the -3 stared at me all week and scared me a little, and there's no question that some of Green Bay's key names being injured lowers their ceiling. I'd feel even better about it if the number drops to -2.5. I mean, this is Aaron Rodgers! Relax. He can beat an average at best Bengals team by a field goal.

If you think the line is a little fishy and are worried about a late Packers field goal and a one- or two-point win, don't just play the moneyline. You can grab Green Bay to win by five or fewer points at +450 at FanDuel. I middled the Bucs against the Pats last Sunday night with that exact play, so if that's the game script you expect here, it's not a bad angle.

I trust Rodgers though, especially at -2.5 if it gets there. I'll gladly play the Packers to win and cover there, and I'll take the -3 too if I need to. If we lose the hook in the other direction, I probably stay away or nibble that +450 winning band.

R-E-L-A-X. Rodgers & Co. will get the job done against a Bengals team that probably isn't as good as their record.

Pick: Packers -3

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Patriots at Texans Odds

Joe Klein: This game is disgusting, and there are plenty of other options to bet this weekend. Maybe do something else with your Sunday if you were considering watching this game in full — unless you are a Patriots fan. If you're a Texans fan, watch the Astros instead.

That being said, I think the handicap here is fairly simple. Bill Belichick has absolutely stymied rookie QBs over the course of his career, and he made Zach Wilson's life miserable in Week 2.

Mills is worse than Wilson, as is the scheme and talent around him. I don't have high expectations for this Houston offense, and its team total of 14.5 reflects a similar sentiment.

Where there may be an edge here is the matchup between New England's offense and Houston's defense.

The Patriots offense is quite poor as is, and they could be missing four starters on the line on Sunday. The game plan will likely be even more conservative than usual, and New England will have long, slow-moving drives down the field.

This total is heinously low, but it may not quite be low enough. If the Texans score points, they're going to do so slowly, while we know how the Pats are likely to operate.

I'm backing the under here, but keeping it to one-half unit since it's not a significant edge. If you follow along, keep it reasonable and best of luck.

Pick: Under 39.5 (play down to 37.5)

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Titans at Jaguars Odds

Phillip Kall: We have seen two Tennessee teams each week, and sometimes even within the game. Against the Cardinals and Jets, as well as the first half of the Seahawks contest, we saw the bad. In contrast, we saw the good in the second half against Seattle and against the Colts.

It might be a risk here, but I'm going to trust the good to show up once again.

After a crushing loss to the Jets, head coach Mike Vrabel will make sure the Titans are to avoid another winless team earning its first victory against them.

Beyond the fear of humiliation, this is a divisional matchup, having already gotten ahead by beating the Colts. A loss against a weak AFC South opponent can haunt you come the end of the season in any tiebreaker scenario.

Above all else, though, this line seems like an overreaction to me. We saw Tennessee move the ball effectively against the Jets, even without its top-two receivers. It was the key moments when Brown and Jones were missed, though.

Against a weak Jaguars pass defense, Brown's return should be enough to punish Jacksonville even if Jones isn't able to play. Add in the fact the Jaguars are dealing with all the off-field distractions and potentially disrespecting their coach, and this one looks like the Titans game to lose.

Back Tennessee to care of business and take control of the AFC South.

Pick: Titans -4.5 | Play to -5.5

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Lions at Vikings Odds

Mike Vitanza: While the Lions have yet to win a game this season, they're better than their record indicates. They’ve been forced to run the gauntlet so far with early season matchups against the Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens, who are four of the better teams in the NFL.

Detroit kept three of those four games to a single-digit margin, with an 18-point loss at Lambeau Field serving as the lone blowout loss. In fact, the Lions lost by just two points to a Ravens team last week that still projects as one of the best in the AFC.

At -10, this spread is far too wide in favor of the Vikings. While their offense has been very good thus far, they’ve also failed to finish games.

If that trend continues, Goff and company will have plenty of opportunities to keep this close. The Lions' numbers are much better than their record indicates, and they’ve been just a couple of big plays short of securing a win against some of the top teams in the league.

I’m taking the Lions +10 as my top pick for this game. While I don’t expect the line to shift to this extent, I would be comfortable taking it as low as +7.5 if it were to move prior to kickoff.

Pick: Lions +10 | Play to +7.5

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Broncos at Steelers Odds

Mike Randle: I love that this game has flipped to Pittsburgh +2.

Head coach Mike Tomlin has thrived in these situations throughout his tenure with the Steelers. In 16 games as a home underdog, Tomlin has covered at a 78.6% rate with a +47.2% return on investment (ROI).

Pittsburgh found a way to earn a tough road win at Buffalo in Week 1. Despite losing three games in a row, including two at home, I think Tomlin's crew comes up with a big effort against a shorthanded and conservative Denver team.

Pick: Pittsburgh +2 | Play up to Steelers PK

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Dolphins at Buccaneers Odds

Brandon Anderson: Miami's best hope of staying in this game is probably Brissett beating this banged-up Bucs secondary deep on a few balls to Waddle or Albert Wilson. And it's certainly possible. Many things are possible, but that doesn't mean they're likely.

The most likely outcome here is the one the bookmakers are expecting too: a comfortable Tampa Bay win.

Miami isn't scoring. The Dolphins have scored 62 points all season, and 11 of them came on the last play or in overtime. If they only hit their average of 15.5 points per game, the Bucs just need to get to 25 points to cover this. Tampa Bay hasn't done that the last two games but had scored 30 or more in nine straight games before that.

Don't let recency bias throw you. The Bucs are great and the offense is just fine and will score points. The Dolphins can't keep up. I like Tampa Bay to win and cover, and with relative ease.

If you're a little squeamish on the line, you could tease the Bucs down under a touchdown, but you're losing some value there and might be doing so unnecessarily.

There's another Bucs angle you may want to consider too — the big picture.

It feels like the Bucs are being overlooked a bit in the big picture. While everyone else jostles for position, this is still an elite team, and one that will get healthy by the time the games really matter.

Take a look at the upcoming schedule: the Dolphins, Eagles, Bears and Saints before the bye, then Washington, the Giants, Colts and Falcons after. Heck, we pause there for a tough game against the Bills but then it's the Jets, Saints, and Panthers (twice) to close the season.

How many losses are left on that schedule? Probably not many. But with the Bucs looking mostly human the last couple weeks, that makes this the perfect time to invest in Bucs futures while everyone else is fawning over the Cardinals and Cowboys.

Brady is still an excellent MVP value. The Bucs have solid value to win the NFC or Super Bowl, and they're in great shape to get the No. 1 seed with that Charmin-soft schedule.

Look at the schedule again. Remember the banged-up Bucs secondary? The opponent still has to pass to beat them. Who's doing that anytime soon — Jalen Hurts? Justin Fields? Jameis Winston? Taylor Heinecke, Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Zach Wilson or Sam Darnold? That's every QB left on the schedule other than Josh Allen. Oh — and Brissett, somehow still the worst name on the list.

This secondary will be fine. The Bucs will be fine, big picture and in this one. Tampa Bay rolls.

Pick: Bucs -9.5 and invest in Tampa futures

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Saints at Washington Odds

Billy Ward: With both defenses forcing opponents to the air, this game should be played at a fast pace with more scoring than one might think.

Washington already plays at the eighth-fastest situation neutral pace in the league, and it hasn't been in a game with fewer than 59 points scored since Week 1. That week the Football Team faced the extenuating circumstance of a mid-game quarterback switch.

The Saints have also been more productive offensively than the current public perception suggests. If you take out their Week 2 slog against the Panthers, they're averaging 29 points per game on offense. That Panthers team plays at the 25th-fastest pace and features the fourth-best defense by DVOA. Washington is at the opposite end of both of those numbers.

Were it not for the injuries to both teams, this total would be much higher. Remember when every game Winston started went for 60 or more points?

While the defenses line up well in terms of stopping their opponents strengths, more passing leads to a quicker game and more scoring.

Pick: Over 43.5

Browns at Chargers Odds

Michael Arinze: I suspect that Cleveland will have a ton of the ball in this game based on the Browns' run play percentage (52.83%) and a Los Angeles defensive scheme that operates with light numbers in the tackle area.

The Chargers are 22nd in Defensive Rush DVOA run and 29th in allowing 139.5 rushing yards per game. It'll be interesting to see if Staley relents and adds another defender in the box against this Browns' league-leading rushing attack.

One thing we know about both teams is they like to control the tempo.

Cleveland is second in the league in time of possession (34:21), while the Chargers are eighth (32:18).

Both teams are also first and second in their average time per drive. Los Angeles leads the way at 3:24 while Cleveland averages 3:21. These stats should be indicative of this game staying under the total on Sunday.

The under has cashed in Cleveland's last two games, and in the previous four Chargers' games, including eight of their last 10 contests.

I'd expect that we'll see plenty of Nick Chubb running the ball given Mayfield's struggles in recent weeks. FanDuel has the best price on the board with a total of 47.5, so I'll look to play the under there.

Pick: Under 47.5

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Bears at Raiders Odds

Michael Arinze: Both teams come into this game with significant injuries, as the Bears will be without their starting running back in Montgomery. The Raiders will be without their starting cornerback  Mullen Jr. However, I think each team has enough depth not to disrupt their game plans due to those injuries.

For the Raiders, Nate Hobbs will replace Mullen Jr. at cornerback, and his 76.2 PFF player grade is almost seven points higher. I'd expect the Bears to continue to rely heavily on their rushing attack and not expose Fields in the passing game.

For Chicago, Montgomery's replacement is where we find the most betting value in this game.

Damien Williams will replace Montgomery as the Bears' lead running back. This is the same player who rushed for 104 yards on 17 carries in the Chiefs' Super Bowl LIV win. Last week, he rushed for 55 yards on eight carries against the Lions, and he should get plenty of touches within the offense which averages 28 rushing attempts and 122.8 yards per game.

Lastly, I touched on some of the Raiders' challenges given their travel and two overtime games. Those seem minor compared to the unsettling news about Raiders head coach Jon Gruden using a racial trope in 2011 to describe NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith.

The NFL is a league with more than 50% African-American players. It wouldn't surprise me if there's at least some tension in the Raiders building this week. I'm not sure how together this Raiders team will be on Sunday, so that should create additional value on the underdog Bears at +5.5.

Pick: Damien Williams over 59.5 rushing yards

Lean: Bears +5.5

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49ers at Cardinals Odds

Raheem Palmer: This is the biggest overreaction of the week.

Arizona is coming off its biggest win of the season, and the lookahead line before that was Cardinals -2.5 for this game.

In the preseason, this line was Cardinals -1.5. Now, they host the 49ers as 5.5-point favorites. Is it warranted?

From my view, this is a clear over-adjustment for a Cardinals team that trailed down 19-10 in the second half against the Jaguars and was a missed field goal away from losing against the Vikings.

With Arizona struggling to stop the run, we could see Kyle Shanahan implement an offense that takes advantage of Lance and wide receiver Deebo Samuel's speed.

While Shanahan has struggled as a favorite, he's been impressive as an underdog with a 23-16 (59%) record against the spread:

Overall, I'm expecting the 49ers to find some success offensively after a full week to game plan for the strengths of Lance. San Francisco should keep this within the number.

Pick: 49ers +5.5

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Giants at Cowboys Odds

Raheem Palmer: Sharp money hit this total from the opener of 49.5 up to where it currently sits at 53 (check real-time odds here). Although I do believe we're looking at a high-scoring game that goes over the total, I can't recommend a play on the total at this current price with 51 and 52 being key numbers.

That said, the Giants are playing their second straight road game and coming off an emotional win in New Orleans. This feels like a letdown spot for the Giants against a Cowboys offense that is the best in the league outside of the Chiefs.

I'll lay the points with the Cowboys here.

Pick: Cowboys -7

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Jets at Falcons Odds

Phillip Kall: For the NFL’s first game in London, it is hard to imagine backing either team.

The Jets have looked impressive for just one half this season, and that was the final 30 minutes last week against the Titans. Even then, Tennessee missed a field goal in overtime to open the door for a Jets victory.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have been outplayed in every game but managed to get things to fall their way against the Giants to get a win.

With neither team proving trustworthy for a whole game, I am instead turning to the first-half spread in this matchup.

In the first half this season, the Jets offense has been atrocious. The New York passing attack averages 5.0 yards per attempt and has zero touchdowns to five interceptions so far in the first half this season. The Jets rushing attack has not been much better, averaging 3.4 yards per carry with one first-half touchdown on the season.

The defense shows a similar struggle. In the first half, the Jets have allowed a passer rating of 103.3 and 8.3 yards per attempt.

All of those struggles have led to the Jets being outscored 55-10 in the first half this year.

New York might make halftime adjustments and come back on Sunday, but I am trusting them to continue struggling early.

Pick: Atlanta 1H -1.5 (play to -2.5)

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