NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Lions at Rams Odds
Lions Odds | +16 |
Rams Odds | -16 |
Over/Under | 50.5 |
Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
TV | FOX |
Raheem Palmer: It's tough to imagine the Lions slowing down this Rams offense since it's giving up 28.7 points per game and ranks 27th in DVOA, 28th in EPA/play and dead last in Dropback Success Rate. This is also a Lions defense that's dead-last in explosive pass play rate, so Kupp, Woods and Jackson should have big games against this banged-up secondary.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense hasn't been nearly as good as we saw last season.
While the Lions are banged up at receiver, I'm expecting them to do just enough to help this game go over the total with the Rams naming their score in this matchup.
Pick: Over 50.5| Bet to: 51.5
Eagles at Raiders Odds
Eagles Odds | +2.5 |
Raiders Odds | -2.5 |
Over/Under | 48.5 |
Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
TV | FOX |
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. |
Joe Klein: I understand the argument for the Eagles side, and I have a ton of respect for the betting market as a whole. This is a team that has advantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and injuries in the Raiders' secondary give Jalen Hurts a chance to succeed in ways he rarely has this season.
At the end of the day, though, Derek Carr is a better quarterback than Hurts — and it's not really close right now. Carr is playing at an elite level while Hurts struggles to keep the offense on the field. Carr can be efficient and can beat you down the field; Hurts can't consistently do either.
In their four games against competent defenses, the Eagles have averaged 19 points per game, with a number of garbage-time scores against the Cowboys and Bucs. This Raiders defense is not elite, but it's competent enough to keep the Eagles in check.
And don't ever forget: The Autumn Wind is a Raider!
Pick: Raiders -2.5 | Bet to: -3 (-110)
Texans at Cardinals Odds
Texans Odds | +18.5 |
Cardinals Odds | -18.5 |
Over/Under | 47.5 |
Time | 4:25 p.m. ET |
TV | CBS |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. |
Michael Arinze: I've got to see this Texans team put up points on the road with Mills under center before backing them to do so. There aren't many good options for Houston, whether it plans to stick with the run or risk more interceptions in the passing game with the rookie throwing the ball.
As far as the Cardinals are concerned, while this could certainly be a letdown spot for them given the opponent, I could easily see them doing most — if not all — of the scoring in the game. Thus, my projections don't point to a high-scoring game in this contest.
Here's a trend that lends further support for this game staying under the total: In Arizona's last eight games as a favorite of seven points or more, the under is on a perfect 8-0 run.
That's certainly a trend that you can get behind, so I'll look to grab the under at 47.5 while it's still available.
Pick: Under 47.5 | Bet to: 47
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Bears at Buccaneers Odds
Bears Odds | +13 |
Buccaneers Odds | -13 |
Over/Under | 47 |
Time | 4:25 p.m. ET |
TV | CBS |
Raheem Palmer: This comes down to whether Fields and the Bears can find a way to generate enough offense to stay competitive. From my view, I just don't see it.
There has been some correlation from pros betting the opening line of Bears +12.5 with the under at 48.5, and while it does make sense from a numbers perspective, it's a tough sell for me from a football perspective.
I don't see the Bears holding this Buccaneers offense to just 19 points again, as this Tampa Bay team is much more cohesive than the version we saw last season. With the Bears struggling offensively, the Bucs could cover this number if their offense puts up 24 to 28 points, which is very likely.
I image we'll see a similar script as we did in the Bears' loss to the Packers last week, in which the Bears defense keeps them in the game but their offense can't make enough plays to keep up, and the Bucs offense eventually shuts the door in the second half.
Pick: Buccaneers -11.5 | Bet to: -12.5
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Early Afternoon NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Bengals at Ravens Odds
Bengals Odds | +6.5 |
Ravens Odds | -6.5 |
Over/Under | 45.5 |
Time | 1 p.m. ET |
TV | CBS |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. |
Michael Arinze: The injuries for Baltimore are certainly a concern coming into this game. Yet, they've managed to weather the storm all season. That's all down to their coaching and player recruitment in the front office.
Of course, Jackson would much rather have Watkins and Murray available, but Baltimore can win games in various ways. The Ravens won't mind rolling around in the mud for a divisional contest. That's just one reason why I believe points could be at a premium in this matchup.
We also have some solid trends in support of a lower-scoring game:
- The total is 5-0 to the under in Cincinnati's last five games.
- The total is 4-0 to the under when the Ravens are coming off a game where they scored 30+ points.
- Lastly, historically, Cincinnati has profiled as an under team according to our BetLabs database.
Since 2003, the under is +11.18 units in games involving the Bengals. That little nugget is more than enough to get me to the window, so I'll look to grab the under at 46.5 before it dips any lower.
Pick: Under 46.5 | Bet to: 45
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Washington at Packers Odds
Washington Odds | +8 |
Packers Odds | -8 |
Over/Under | 47.5 |
Time | 1 p.m. ET |
TV | FOX |
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. |
Phillip Kall: Since Week 1, Washington has struggled against opponents who are currently over .500. Each game has ended in at least an 11-point loss for the Football Team. Green Bay will look to extend that streak while breaking one of its own. The Packers have not won a game by more than 10 points since beating the Lions in Week 2.
The problem for Green Bay is it has missed big quick-strike plays that open a game up right away. Fortunately, stopping anyone on the backend is where Washington struggles the most. The Football Team will have no one who can match up with Adams, and if they dedicate extra resources to him, big plays will be open.
Green Bay's offensive line will need to hold up against Washington’s front, but it has already done so against several good pass-rushes like the 49ers, Steelers, Bengals and Bears.
As for the Packers defense, even when Taylor Heinicke is clicking, he has not shown the ability to cut up good defenses. We have seen a few top receivers go off against the Packers this year, but Green Bay can replicate the Chiefs' game plan for McLaurin. Even if McLaurin does break a play or two, it is hard to imagine Heinicke going score-for-score with Rodgers.
Back the Packers to win big in this one.
Pick: Packers -8 | Bet to: -8.5
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Falcons at Dolphins Odds
Falcons Odds | -2 |
Dolphins Odds | +2 |
Over/Under | 48 |
Time | 1 p.m. ET |
TV | FOX |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. |
Mike Vitanza: While the Dolphins' 1-5 record might not instill loads of confidence, the truth is that this team is substantially better than their record indicates. Three of their five losses came with Tagovailoa sidelined by injury, and another came last week on a last-second field goal.
Additionally, the Dolphins defense has also had tough draws thus far against three of the league’s top offenses, making their early season rankings very misleading. In a much more favorable matchup, I expect this unit to be able to settle in against a poor Atlanta team.
With an additional week to settle in following the injury, Tagovailoa should also have ample opportunity to continue the momentum built last week following his strong performance against the Jaguars.
I’m taking the points here on the home team as my primary play, but the Miami moneyline also warrants consideration as long as it remains at plus money.
Pick: Dolphins +2.5 | Bet to: Dolphins -1
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Jets at Patriots Odds
Jets Odds | +7 |
Patriots Odds | -7 |
Over/Under | 42.5 |
Time | 1 p.m. ET |
TV | CBS |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. |
Phillip Kall: The coaching advantage should help New England get an early lead. However, its conservative style makes me hesitant to think the Patriots can put together a big lead. Add in that the Jets have fought back into several games, and a seven-point spread is just too much for me.
However, as for the total, New England’s conservative style can play in our favor. Its running game should grind out the clock while New York's pass rush should help limit New England to short throws. This will force the Patriots to score on long, slow drives and keep the amount of possessions down.
As for the Jets scoring, so far this season they have shown no threat of that in the first half. While their second halves have been much more impressive, that meant nothing in the first matchup against the Patriots. Until Wilson learns to take what the defense gives him, the Jets' offense will continue to be limited — especially against a team as disciplined as the Patriots.
In the app, you can see that Action's Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner is also riding the under. It's always a good sign when the best and brightest are on your side.
Pick: Under 42.5| Bet to: 41.5
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Panthers at Giants Odds
Panthers Odds | -2.5 |
Giants Odds | +2.5 |
Over/Under | 42 |
Time | 1 p.m. ET |
TV | FOX |
Mike Randle: This line is low because of Carolina's recent losing streak, but the Panthers still have more talent on both sides of the ball. With all the Giants' injuries, the Panthers' loss of Christian McCaffrey is minimized.
Darnold has struggled but still has an elite receiver in Moore and an explosive field-stretcher in Anderson. The Giants need a turnover-free game, and I don't see it happening. It never is comfortable laying points with Darnold on the road, but if Gilmore plays, I would have no problem laying at least one more point.
Pick: Panthers -3 | Bet to: Panthers -4
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Chiefs at Titans Odds
Chiefs Odds | -4.5 |
Titans Odds | +4.5 |
Over/Under | 57.5 |
Time | 1 p.m. ET |
TV | CBS |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here. |
Billy Ward: Given the defensive shortcomings on both sides, I don't see either team pulling away in this one. Five points is a fairly big spread by NFL standards, especially for a home team, so the Titans should be able to cover it.
Most books are leaving the line at 4.5, which I'd still bet, but jump on +5 if you see that.
Pick: Titans +5 | Bet to: +4.5
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