NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: An Expert’s Breakdown of Every Sunday Matchup, Including Browns vs. Cardinals

DFS Plays

Michael Pittman Jr. should benefit from the activation of T.Y. Hilton (neck) from IR, ensuring Pittman isn’t the defense’s top priority in the pass game for the first time all season. Hilton may eat into Pittman’s targets long-term, but he will be on a snap count here. Pittman has caught six or more passes in each of the past four games and is viable in cash games.

With Hilton back and the Colts expected to be in a positive game script, I’m fading Carson Wentz, Nyheim Hines, and the rest of the Colts passing game for Jonathan Taylor. The Texans have been somewhat of a run funnel, ranking ninth in DVOA against the pass but 30th versus the run.

The Colts are dead last in pressure rate (15.3%), according to Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats, but Davis Mills has thrown five interceptions from a clean pocket, according to Pro Football Focus, so Taylor is stackable with the Colts DST.

Because the Colts don’t get pressure, this isn’t a tough matchup for Brandin Cooks. The Colts are ranked 25th in DVOA on targets to No. 1 wide receivers and 31st in DVOA on targets 16 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

The Texans' three-way RB committee of Mark Ingram, David Johnson and Phillip Lindsay is a fade against a Colts defense that is ranked second in DVOA against the run.

• Cash Plays: WR Michael Pittman Jr.
• GPP Plays: WR Brandin Cooks, RB Jonathan Taylor, DST Colts

DFS Plays

With starting RB David Montgomery (knee) on IR and backup Damien Williams on the COVID list, rookie Khalil Herbert will be thrust into what will likely be a near-100% snap role against a Packers defense that is ranked 29th in DVOA against the run and 24th in DVOA on passes to RBs. Herbert is a top cash game value but a dicey GPP play due to what will likely be high popularity.

Justin Fields hasn’t carried more than three times for more than 12 yards in any of his starts, taking him out of GPP consideration until further notice, especially since new play-caller Bill lazor has the Bears running 65% of the time over the past two weeks.

The only Bears pass-catcher I’d consider here is Allen Robinson, as the Packers are down two starting corners in Jaire Alexander (IR-shoulder) and Kevin King (out-shoulder). Robinson lines up most often on the left, where the Packers pass defense is 21st in DVOA compared to 12th on passes over the middle and fifth on throws to the right. Darnell Mooney sees most of his action to the right side, while Cole Kmet hasn’t caught more than two balls since Week 1.

After silencing the doubters (read: me) with an MVP campaign in 2020, Aaron Rodgers’ issues under pressure are quietly rearing their ugly head again. Rodgers’ passer rating under pressure is 31.0, last among 34 qualified QBs through five weeks. The Bears’ league-leading sacks are likely due for regression given that they are just 26th in pressure rate (17.6%), though they also blitz at the fourth-lowest rate (15.7%), indicating Khalil Mack and company can get to Rodgers while defensive coordinator Sean Desai dials up coverage on the back-end.

Sixty-percent of Rodgers’ passing yards (206-of-344) went to Davante Adams last week, but the Bears are allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers (50.0), so this is a week to avoid paying the premium price tag for Rodgers and Adams and hope they correct downward just in time for a matchup with Washington’s porous secondary next week. Instead of Rodgers, I’m willing to play the Bears DST in this spot, particularly in Herbert lineups to gain some correlated differentiation from the field.

The Bears are 24th in DVOA on passes, and slot cornerback Duke Shelley is ranked 88th of 110 qualified corners in PFF grade, so this is a nice buy-low spot on Randall Cobb, who went silent last week after posting a 5-69-2 line two weeks ago in his first start.

This is the week to fire up A.J. Dillon as a contrarian pivot off of Aaron Jones, who is overpriced. Dillon is averaging 11.5 carries and 2.5 targets over the past two weeks, and this should be a physical, run-heavy game between two division rivals.

• Cash Plays: RB Khalil Herbert
• GPP Plays: RB A.J. Dillon, WR Randall Cobb, WR Allen Robinson, Bears DST

DFS Plays

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill should feast against a Washington defense that is ranked fourth-worst in DVOA against the pass. If Hill (questionable-quad) sits, Mecole Hardman becomes a GPP option. Given Hill’s injury status, Kelce is worth paying up for in cash games on FanDuel, where he is easily affordable given the value at RB.

Darrel Williams saw only 58% of the non-Jerick McKinnon snaps last week, so he is a GPP-only option for me against a Washington defense that is ranked ninth in DVOA against the run.

As long as Terry McLaurin (questionable-hamstring) suits up, he and Taylor Heinicke are a nice GPP option against a Chiefs defense that is ranked 31st in passing DVOA.

Ricky Seals-Jones ran a route on 88% of Heinicke’s dropbacks last week in place of the injured Logan Thomas. Seals-Jones is a GPP option against a Chiefs defense that is ranked 27th in DVOA on passes to TEs.

Despite playing through a painful cracked shin, Antonio Gibson should see a heavy workload against a league-worst Chiefs defense that begs teams to run as to not exploit their similarly piss-poor pass defense. Gibson is a high-upside GPP option who still has a low floor due to the potential for negative game script.

• Cash Plays: TE Travis Kelce
• GPP Plays: QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Mecole Hardman (if Hill sits), QB Taylor Heinicke, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Terry McLaurin, TE Ricky Seals-Jones

DFS Plays

The Panthers are ranked dead last in DVOA to WR1s and 29th in DVOA on passes to the right, so this should be a smash spot for Justin Jefferson. Even though Jefferson lines up on the left slightly more, he leads the Vikings with a 30% target share to the right side and should be able to win on crosses and in-breaking routes when aligned to the left.

The Panthers are first in DVOA on passes to the short left, which is where Adam Thielen has seen the most targets (15). The TD-dependent Thielen hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 1. I’m fading him through next week’s bye and hoping to buy low against the Cowboys.

The Panthers' blitz-happy scheme forces them to play a lot of man coverage, giving K.J. Osborn the advantage of Tyler Conklin as the team’s third target. Osborn is third behind Jefferson and Thielen in targets (9), catches (7), and yards (91) versus man coverage, while Conklin has just 7 targets, 4 catches, and 33 yards against man.

Cousins gets the ball out fast under pressure, so i think this will be a low-YPA game where he could rack up a lot of completions, benefiting his pass catchers in PPR more than him. I’m fading him in GPPs this week and playing Jefferson or Osborn solo.

Dalvin Cook was removed from the injury report, so he should be closer to his 25.0-touch average from Weeks 1-2 than his 11 touches in Week 3. I like him as a pay-up option in GPPs.

The Vikings are second in pressure rate and Sam Darnold has a rating of just 59.8 under pressure, 25th in the league. Darnold has tossed four picks and taken 13 sacks on 77 pressured dropbacks, so this is a smash spot for the Vikings DST, which is viable in cash games.

The Vikings are 26th in DVOA on passes to the short left, which is where D.J. Moore has seen 21 of his 49 targets (43%) and 30% of Vikings targets overall to that area. This is a strong bounce-back spot for him after posting season-lows in catches (5) and yards (42) last week.

I’m off Robby Anderson until further notice after he has put up just 12 catches in five games. It looks like I was a week too early on Tommy Tremble, who caught a TD last week, but Tremble is still playing behind Ian Thomas. Rookie Terrace Marshall should have a breakout game at some point and could be an outlet option for Darnold in this game, but he has not been productive enough to roster yet, with averages of just 2.6 catches for 21.4 yards per game receiving.

Chuba Hubbard is back in GPP consideration with Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) still on the mend. Hubbard has been taken off the field on passing downs, so he’s best stacked with the Panthers DST in hopes the Carolina pressure wreaks havoc on Cousins and enables the Panthers to grab a lead early.

• Cash Plays: Vikings DST
• GPP Plays: RB Chuba Hubbard, WR D.J. Moore, DST Panthers, RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, WR K.J. Osborn

DFS Plays

Lamar Jackson is averaging 348.3 passing yards over his last three games and is mispriced due to salaries coming out before he hung 504 total yards and four TDs on the Colts on Monday Night Football. He’s the top cash game play at QB by a mile.

After catching 11 passes for 147 yards and two TDs on Monday night, Mark Andrews is underpriced as well. He has caught five or more passes in four straight games and faces a Chargers defense that is ranked 29th in DVOA to TEs but 11th or higher to every other position. Andrews is the top cash game play at TE.

Marquise Brown has caught a TD in nine of his past 11 games dating back to last season. He’s riskier than usual this week, however, as the Chargers rank second in DVOA on deep passes (and 29th on short passes).

Given the amount of rostership that the Ravens’ passing game will attract, it’s worth taking a flier on their running game in GPPs with Latavius Murray, who has led the backfield in carries in each of the past three weeks and four of five overall. The Chargers are ranked 31st in run-defense DVOA.

The correlation between the production of opposing QBs makes Justin Herbert a pivot option off Jackson. Because the Ravens like to blitz and play man coverage, Herbert will likely connect most with Keenan Allen, who is averaging 6.8 catches and 73.8 yards per game and is viable in cash games. While Mike Williams has done most of his damage against zone with a team-leading 19/285/1 stat line on 27 targets, he has been far quieter against man coverage (15/8/89/2). Allen leads the team in targets (19), catches (13) and yards (190) against zone, more than doubling up Williams in yardage.

Jared Cook is the only other Raven with double-digit targets versus man coverage, making him a good buy-low GPP option coming off a one-catch game. The Ravens are ranked 21st in DVOA to TEs. Donald Parham is also a dart-throw option, as the former XFL star will reportedly be more involved going forward.

The Ravens' blitz-happy tendencies usually result in opponents leaving RBs in to block, limiting their production in the receiving game, but that hasn’t happened this season. Despite blitzing 33.2% of the time, fifth-highest, the Ravens are 29th in DVOA on targets to RBs and are allowing the most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to the position (67.5). Austin Ekeler is averaging 4.6 catches per game and his carries have increased from nine to 11 to 15 to 17 over the past four weeks; he’s a high-upside GPP option.

• Cash Plays: QB Lamar Jackson, TE Mark Andrews
• GPP Plays: QB Justin Herbert, RB Austin Ekeler, TE Jared Cook, TE Donald Parham, RB Latavius Murray, WR Marquise Brown

DFS Plays

Rookie Ja’Marr Chase shook off a nightmare training camp to post 77-plus yards and/or a TD in every game. I’m using Chase in cash games until he gives me a reason not to. The cornerback-starved Lions are unlikely to, as they rank 22nd in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers and 27th in DVOA against the pass overall.

The Lions are ranked 31st in DVOA on passes to both the left and right side but 10th over the middle. This should be a week in which Tee Higgins steps up as the Robin to Chase’s Batman at the expense of Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah. I’m worried about how often the Bengals dial up Joe Burrow pass attempts after he took a few NFL Blitz-type of hits last week, but I think he’s still worth rostering in GPPs given his 8.8 yards per attempt and 7.6% TD rate. He’s a high-ceiling, low-floor option at QB against a Lions defense that gets more pressure than you’d think.

Over the last year and change, Joe Mixon pretty much rendered the rest of the backfield carry-less. As Mixon got in two limited practices this week after playing just 28% of the snaps last week due to a nagging ankle issue, I’m willing to bet he returns to an every-snap player this week with backup Samaje Perine on the COVID list. Mixon has RB1 overall upside against a Lions defense that is ranked bottom-five in DVOA against the run.

The Bengals have struggled to defend passes to the short right, ranking 31st in DVOA. T.J. Hockenson leads the team with a 23% target share of short-right passes and is a nice pivot off of Mark Andrews in GPPs.

Lions coaches have talked of getting rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown more involved. After putting up six-plus catches and 65-plus yards in each of the past two games, St. Brown is a low-cost GPP option. His ability to rack up short catches (7.5 aDOT) means he doesn’t need to be paired with Jared Goff against a strong Bengals pass defense that is ranked 12th in DVOA.

The Bengals have allowed a league-high 41 receptions to RBs, so this is a nice spot for D’Andre Swift, who is averaging 5.8 receptions per game. Swift has run a route on 62% of Goff’s dropbacks compared to 26% for Jamaal Williams.

Given that Burrow is tied for the third-most interceptions (6) and fourth-most sacks (14), I also like the Lions DST as a contrarian play. Under head coach Zac Taylor, the Bengals are just 2-14 on the road, including a loss the only other time they were favored.

• Cash Plays: WR Ja’Marr Chase
• GPP Plays: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tee Higgins, RB D’Andre Swift, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. TE T.J. Hockenson, DST Lions

DFS Plays

Devontae Booker played 60-of-66, or 91%, of non-Saquon Barkley snaps last week, suggesting he will likely approach Barkley’s 80-85% snap rates until Barkley returns from his ankle injury. Booker provided hard-nosed play, gaining 58 yards and scoring twice on 17 touches. Against a Rams defense that likes to invite the run and is ranked a middling 15th in DVOA against the run, Booker is viable in cash games.

Sterling Shepard tends to struggle to play when hurt, so the fact that he’s off the injury report altogether this week is promising. With Kadarius Toney (questionable-ankle) banged up after having established himself as a threat defenses have to game-plan for with 16 catches for 167 yards over the past two weeks, I like pivoting to Shepard this week against the Rams. Jalen Ramsey hasn’t been a matchup corner this season, but I’d still expect Shepard to play more on the outside — away from Ramsey in his new slot position — than Toney in three-wide sets. Despite missing four games, Shepard leads the Giants with four red-zone targets and is a nice GPP stacking partner with Daniel Jones, who was cleared from the concussion protocol. The Rams are 10th in DVOA versus tight ends and scheme to take away big plays, so Evan Engram and Darius Slayton are fades.

Darrell Henderson is averaging 17.5 touches per game this season and faces a Giants defense that is ranked 26th in rushing DVOA, though they are third in DVOA on passes to RBs. With the Rams favored by over a TD against a Giants team that always seems to underperform at home, Henderson works best with a Rams DST stack in GPPs.

The Giants are dead last in DVOA on passes to the short middle, where Robert Woods (32%) and Cooper Kupp (28%) have dominated a 60% target share for the Rams. Both are high-upside stacking options with Matthew Stafford against a Giants defense that is ranked 22nd in DVOA against the pass overall.

• Cash Plays: RB Devontae Booker
• GPP Plays: QB Daniel Jones, WR Sterling Shepard, QB Matthew Stafford, RB Darrell Henderson, WR Cooper Kupp, WR Robert Woods, DST Rams

DFS Plays

With Nick Chubb out with a calf injury, Kareem Hunt is a top-three RB play on the slate. In four games sans Chubb last season, Hunt averaged 18.8 touches per game. He faces a Cardinals defense that is allowing 5.1 yards per carry to opposing RBs. Even without Chubb, the ground game should continue to take center stage for the Browns given the matchup and windy forecast. Hunt is my top cash game play and is a better play there than in GPPs given projected percentage rostered numbers.

This is also a nice time to buy low on Odell Beckham. With Chubb out, OBJ is still the Browns' most targeted skill player. He could see a barrage of short passes and rushing attempts in this game. I don’t think he needs to be stacked with Baker Mayfield given that the Cardinals are third in pass-defense DVOA.

Prior to his 7/149/1 line last week, David Njoku had three or fewer catches in each of his other games. As he’s still playing just two-thirds on the snaps in what will likely be a low-volume pass offense, I’m fading him here.

Given the winds and the Cardinals losing head coach and offensive play-caller Kliff Kingsbury, I like the Browns DST as a cheap DST option in cash games and GPPs. The Browns’ ability to get pressure without blitzing will allow them to make life difficult for Kyler Murray.

Cleveland likes to play zone coverage, which should benefit A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, who lead the Cardinals in yardage against zone coverage with 252 and 225, respectively. The Cardinals are intent on spreading targets around — which will only increase starting next week with the acquisition of Zach Ertz — so I’d prefer to roster DeAndre Hopkins coming off a bad game at a discount rather than coming off good games. Christian Kirk is also not an option for me here, as he is ranked sixth on the team in targets versus zone coverage (13).

This is also a week to fade Chase Edmonds and James Conner. Despite what could be a run-heavy game script in the wind, the committee works to kill their value, and they could struggle for efficiency against a Browns defense that is ranked fifth in DVOA against the run and 12th in DVOA on passes to RBs.

• Cash Plays: RB Kareem Hunt, DST Browns
• GPP Plays: WR Rondale Moore, WR A.J. Green, WR Odell Beckham Jr.

DFS Plays

Noah Fant set a season high by running a route on 93% of Teddy Bridgewater’s dropbacks last week and is an intriguing GPP option against a Raiders defense 25th in DVOA versus TEs, easily their worst among skill positions.

This is also a week to fade Courtland Sutton, as he could see a lot of Casey Hayward Jr., who has been a shutdown option, allowing just five catches for 39 yards on 15 targets with three pass breakups in five games this season. The Raiders rank seventh in DVOA versus WR1s but 14th versus WR2s, so I’d play Tim Patrick over Sutton in this spot.

The Broncos gave 11 touches apiece to Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams last week. Against a Raiders run defense that is ranked 14th in DVOA, there are better options until Williams or Gordon goes down with an injury or runs away with the starting job.

Broncos head coach Vic Fangio likes to employ a man-heavy scheme, which could result in a big game for Darren Waller, who leads the Raiders with 22 targets versus man while no other receiver has more than 15. Waller’s price has come down just in time to fire him up in GPPs. Derek Carr has made some big plays against man coverage this season, so he’s worth stacking with Waller.

Josh Jacobs is a sneaky play in GPPs. Fangio likes to play with two safeties back, which will invite Carr to check into advantageous runs. and Jacobs has seen over 80% of the backfield carries in each of the past two games.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: QB Derek Carr, RB Josh Jacobs, TE Darren Waller, WR Tim Patrick, TE Noah Fant

DFS Plays

The Patriots are third in DVOA on passes to No. 1 wide receivers and above-average versus every position but RB, where they rank 30th. They’re also a run funnel, ranking eighth in pass DVOA but 22nd against the run. With the way Dak Prescott is playing, I think Bill Belichick would rather the Cowboys run it with Ezekiel Elliott for 4-5 yards a pop than throw it around with Dak for 8-9 yards an attempt. I’m fading the Cowboys’ passing game this week and playing Zeke in GPPs.

The Cowboys are surprisingly ranked seventh in pass-defense DVOA and eighth against the run, and since they’re capable of grabbing a lead early, they are in play at DST stacked with Zeke against a rookie QB in Mac Jones.

With auto-interception Trevon Diggs patrolling the outside, Jones is unlikely to look the way of Jakobi Meyers often. Mostly thanks to Diggs, the Cowboys are ranked No. 1 in DVOA against WR1s.

The Cowboys have been playing a lot more man coverage, so this matchup sets up well for Hunter Henry, who is second on the team in targets versus man (10), behind only Meyers (20). Whereas the Cowboys are No. 1 against WR1s, they are 31st against TEs.

The Cowboys have allowed an NFL-low 65 carries to opposing RBs this season, so Damien Harris (questionable-ribs) is a fade even if he plays.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: RB Ezekiel Elliott, DST Cowboys, TE Hunter Henry