We are on to Week 10 in the heart of the NFL season. When you get this deep into the season every result becomes even more magnified. It's a potentially tricky slate, but I do see some value out there.
Here is my favorite side and total for Sunday.
NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Saints +3 at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
I will start off by saying that I do think Tennessee has a legitimate chance to make a Super Bowl run. The AFC is wide open and the Titans defense is significantly better than the bottom-five unit I projected in the preseason.
The biggest difference has been the pressure this defense is generating up front with Jeffery Simmons, Harold Landry and company. Simmons and Aaron Donald are the only two interior linemen with 40-plus pressures.
This pressure has helped compensate for some of the issues on the back end outside of stud safety Kevin Byard. A fully healthy Kristian Fulton returning in the secondary will also provide a boost.
Tennessee now has the potential to have at least a league-average defense, which is all it needs to go along with its potent offense to make a deep run come January.
All of this, of course, is assuming Derrick Henry returns by the end of the regular season, in addition to the rest of the roster getting a bit healthier. We saw what the offense looked like last week against the Rams.
It wasn't pretty with Adrian Peterson rushing 10 times for 20 yards. Yes, the Titans pulled off an impressive road upset of the Rams but the box score wasn't kind with the Rams finishing with a 347-194 edge in total yards.
That ineptitude on the ground also hurts Tennessee's vaunted play-action passing attack. The Saints in particular won't have to alter their defense at all. They already possess one of the best run defenses in the NFL and now won't have to worry about providing any help.
New Orleans also has an elite corner in Marshon Lattimore (in addition to a very solid safety group) that can help limit AJ Brown as much as any team possibly can. And a potentially limited Julio Jones (questionable) doesn't help matters against one of the league's best defenses that is as healthy as its been all year.
This line might look funny to some on the surface with the 7-2 Titans only favored by a field goal at home against a 5-4 Saints team that lost Jameis Winston. Well, wins aren't everything and I still have the Saints power rated ahead of the Titans with these two current rosters.
If you don't trust my numbers, take a look their respective DVOA ratings and estimated wins based on post-game win probability, per Football Outsiders:
- Titans 14th DVOA with 4.5 Estimated Wins (18th)
- Saints 8th DVOA with 5.6 Estimated Wins (6th)
This is still a Tennessee team with a negative net yards per play for the season. The Titans average 5.6 yards per play (22nd) and allow 5.8 (19th) for a net of -0.2.
When it comes to the on-field matchup, I expect a heavy dose of rush from the Saints against a poor Titans run defense. Tennessee ranks 25th in EPA per rush and 29th in Rush Success Rate.
Even without Alvin Kamara, New Orleans should have success moving it on the ground behind a very good offensive line that can also help neutralize the Titan pass rush when necessary.
Also, I'm not a huge Taysom Hill guy, but this is a matchup where he can have success. Payton has already mentioned he will have a number of packages for him.
I'm not expecting any sort of massive output from the Saints offense, but I think they can do enough on that end, while relying on their special teams advantage and defense to shut down the shorthanded Tennessee offense.
You also have to wonder if the Titans will have some sort of letdown here for a non-conference game. Mental and physical fatigue could set in for a team that has just gone through a gauntlet.
Tennessee upset the Bills and Chiefs at home before going on the road to beat the division-rival Colts in overtime. It then traveled out west and upset the Rams in primetime. That's quite a four-game stretch.
If you're into trends, this is historically been a great spot to back Sean Payton. The Saints head coach is 44-25-2 (63.8%) Against the Spread (ATS) as an underdog and is covering by four points per game. His 25.3% ROI in this spot is the second-best mark out of 137 coaches (behind Mike Tomlin), per Action Labs.
Even better, Payton is 49-26 (65.3%) ATS and is covering by four points per game. Once again, his 28% ROI in this spot is the second-best mark (behind Bill Belichick). Payton is also 26-10 ATS (72.2%) on the road after a loss.
And while Mike Vrabel has been a cash cow as an underdog (17-9 ATS), he's just 13-18 as a favorite.
Take the three points here with the Saints in a favorable spot with some beneficial matchups in a game I project as close to a coin flip.
Patriots-Browns Under 46
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Pretty simple handicap here between two slow-paced, run-heavy teams. Both New England and Cleveland rank in the top-10 in the NFL in Rush Rate. They each also rate below average in terms of pace in neutral situations.
Expect the clock to race throughout with plenty of punts. It also doesn't hurt that neither of these run-heavy teams will have their full arsenal of running backs.
For the Browns, Kareem Hunt remains on IR and they had to place both Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton on the Covid list. That will leave it up to D'Ernest Johnson to carry the workload.
New England also has some injuries at running back. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris are both listed as questionable for Sunday. (Editor's note: Harris has been ruled out, but Stevenson is expected to play.)
I also think Cleveland's defense is one of the most underrated units in the league now that the Browns are at close to full health. Cleveland ranks in top-5 DVOA against the run, which should play here against New England.
The Browns also rank in the top-3 in Adjusted Sack Rate and Pressure Rate in large part due to Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett, who rank first and second, respectively, in Pass Block Win Rate among edge rushers. That could spell trouble for rookie Mac Jones, who has looked shaky under pressure this year.
The Alabama product has the third-highest turnover worthy throw % when under pressure — ahead of only Big Ben and Justin Fields. He's also only faced one heavy pressure defense in Carolina where he did not look great.
I expect a low-scoring grinder here in the neighborhood of 21-17. Let's just hope we can avoid short fields and non-offensive scores.
