NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Chargers -3 at Raiders (x2!) |
| Chargers ALT Line -2.5 (-121) |
Chargers -3
Raheem Palmer: I've found myself betting on the Raiders three weeks in a row against the Browns, Broncos and Colts. But when I make an honest assessment of this team, they've been winning with smoke and mirrors.
The Raiders needed a last-second field goal to defeat a Browns team that was ravaged by COVID and playing its third-string quarterback in Nick Mullens. They defeated a Broncos team with Drew Lock at the helm. Then they were fortunate to face a Colts team dealing with COVID issues, with Carson Wentz and multiple starters on the offensive line missing the entire week of practice.
The Raiders are being overvalued in this spot against a Chargers team that beat them 28-14 when these teams first met and is getting healthier.
The Chargers had their full first-team secondary on the field for just the third time all season last week. A healthy Chargers defense doesn't bode well for a Raiders offense that's averaging just 15 points per game since losing Henry Ruggs III in Week 9, excluding their 36-33 win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
In addition, the Raiders have struggled with turning the ball over and haven't generated many turnovers on defense, ranking 28th in turnover differential at -11. With the Chargers offense ranking sixth in EPA/play and fifth in Success Rate, they should have no problems against a Raiders defense that doesn't force turnovers and is 25th in EPA/play.
I'll lay the points with the Chargers up to -3 (check real-time NFL odds here).
Chris Raybon: The Raiders gutted out an impressive 23-20 win over the Colts in Week 17 to give themselves a shot at the playoffs, but this has all the makings of a letdown spot against a division rival they don't match up well against.
The Chargers' biggest enemy has been themselves, while the Raiders have more serious flaws — both talent-wise and schematically. In the first matchup, the Chargers were able to game plan such that both their weaknesses and the Raiders' strengths were minimized.
The Chargers aren't one of those teams that has a major home-field advantage, and thus they shouldn't get docked as much when going on the road, especially since not much travel is involved here. In fact, the Chargers are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) on the road while the Raiders are just 3-5 ATS at home.
According to our NFL PRO Report, we have tracked 11 sharp moves on the Chargers, which is the right play as long as we're laying a field goal or less.
Chargers ALT Line -2.5 (-121)
Michael Arinze: A three-game win streak propelled the Raiders into contention, setting up a win-or-go-home game against the Chargers. However, a closer look reveals that Las Vegas might have been fortunate, given the circumstances of each of those games as Raheem detailed above.
While I admit that you can only beat the teams on your schedule, there's no question that things broke kindly for the Raiders. During this winning streak, they're averaging 18.7 points per game — quite a drop-off from when they averaged 28.7 points during another three-win streak to start the season.
Las Vegas will need to keep pace against a Los Angeles team that boasts one of the best offenses in the league. In the first meeting between these teams in October, the Chargers snapped the Raiders' first three-win streak by doubling them up, 28-14. The Raiders could muster only 48 rushing yards in that game despite facing a Chargers defense that's now dead last in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA.
This season, we've seen teams succeed against the Chargers if they're able to run the ball. However, this isn't a strength of the Raiders offense as they're 25th in run DVOA.
It is a bit ironic that the Chargers are again standing in the way of the Raiders and a possible four-win streak. Since 2013, home teams on a three-win streak heading into the season's final game are just 2-10 ATS for a loss of -7.94 units, per our Action Labs data.
This is ultimately a bad matchup for the Raiders, so I can only lay the points with the road favorites. However, with the spread sitting at -3, I'll buy it down to -2.5 (-121).
