NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
Panthers vs. Giants
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Chris Raybon: This is a tough matchup for the Giants without their top playmakers.
The Panthers are fourth in pressure rate (28.6%), but Daniel Jones will also be without left tackle Andrew Thomas, who was allowing a pressure on 3.8% of dropbacks. Sliding over to replace him in the lineup will be Nate Solder, who has allowed a pressure on 8.8% of dropbacks this season. At right tackle will be Matt Peart, who has allowed a pressure 8.4% of the time in his career. Jones has been fine from a clean pocket, posting a 65.6% completion percentage, 7.8 yards per attempt and a 37.5% first-down rate. When facing pressure, however, Jones dips to a 54.4% completion rate, 6.1 YPA and a 21.1% first-down rate while taking a sack 17.4% of the time.
Running back Devonate Booker is averaging 3.0 yards per carry and a 29% rushing success rate compared to 3.6 yards per carry and a 44% success rate for Saquon Barkley (out-ankle), so Jones is unlikely to get any help from his run game.
On the other side of the ball, this game should be more reminiscent of Weeks 1-3 Sam Darnold, as the Giants are ranked 31st with a 17.8% pressure rate. Darnold has a 55.7 rating with one TD and four interceptions under pressure, but a 91.1 rating with six TDs and three interceptions from a clean pocket.
The boo-happy Meadowlands have never been a good spot for Jones, who has covered in just 25% of his 16 home games as an NFL starter, per our Action Labs data.
I would bet this only to -3.
Chiefs vs. Titans
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Raheem Palmer: One of my favorite axioms in NFL betting is "always avoid the public underdog," and there will be no greater public dog in Week 7 than the Titans, who are coming off a 34-31 victory over the Bills on Monday Night Football.
Josh Allen and the Bills offense did whatever they wanted against the Titans, out-gaining them in first downs (28 vs. 16), total yards (417 vs. 362) and passing yards (335 vs. 216). However, the Bills lost the game in the red zone, where they were just two for five, including a crucial fourth-down stop to end the game. They also had a tipped-passed interception that led to a Titans touchdown to make it a 17-13 game in the second quarter.
Outside of the turnover and explosive plays from Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, though, it felt like the Bills dominated the Titans in the first half.
Making matters worse, the Titans are dealing with a cluster of injuries at cornerback with Caleb Farley out for the season after suffering a torn ACL and Kristian Fulton on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. With a beat-up secondary, expect the Chiefs offense to score on nearly every possession against a Titans defense that's 28th in Football Outsiders' DVOA.
The injuries don't stop there for the Titans, as left tackle Taylor Lewan is in the concussion protocol, and Jones didn't practice with a hamstring injury. The Chiefs, meanwhile, will welcome back defensive end Chris Jones and cornerback Charvarius Ward.
Overall, this is great spot to back the Chiefs.
Bengals vs. Ravens
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Sean Koerner: The Ravens have dialed back how often they blitz this season, but their 32% blitz rate still ranks fifth-highest in the league. Joe Burrow has gone 31/41 for 306 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions against the blitz this season. His 151.3 QB rating against the blitz ranks second-highest on the season.
The Ravens are dealing with significant injuries along the offensive line. LT Ronnie Stanley was placed on season-ending IR, while Bradley Bozeman and Alejandro Villanueva are both questionable for Week 7. The Bengals defense has been solid this season (ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA), and I believe they’ll keep this game close.
I’d bet this down to +6.
Bengals vs. Ravens
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Brandon Anderson: The Ravens are one of three teams sitting at 5-1 now after losing their opener, joining the Packers and Cowboys. Baltimore is rolling, and Lamar Jackson might be the MVP if the season ended today. The Ravens have owned this division rivalry of late, winning five straight against Cincinnati and holding the Bengals to just three points in both of their meetings last season.
Of course, the Bengals went 6-25-1 the last two seasons, and this is looking like a very different team. Cincinnati is legitimately good, especially on defense. The Bengals rank fifth in Defensive DVOA, per Football Outsiders, and they’re fourth in EPA per play on run defense. That’s a good formula against a Ravens team built around the run game, and it means this will all fall onto the shoulders of Jackson once again.
Baltimore continues to pick up RB injuries. Now that Latavius Murray is hurt too, that’s essentially the top four Ravens running backs, and now star LT Ronnie Stanley is out for the season too. These are two of the slowest teams in the league, so this game leans under, and the Bengals D can keep Baltimore in check. In a division rivalry probably going under, 6.5 points are too much. I’m not sure Cincinnati is ready to get this big of a road win just yet, but they can keep it close. I expect this line to move down, so don’t wait for the -7.
Bengals vs. Ravens
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Mike Randle: Rashod Bateman has returned to the Ravens offense after suffering a groin injury in training camp. In his Week 6 debut he immediately garnered a 63.1% snap share and 22% target share with only 19 routes run. In a game the Ravens comfortably won 34-6 over the Chargers, Bateman's usage and opportunity was very encouraging.
Bateman will face a Cincinnati defense that ranks 11th-worst in adjusted points allowed to wide receivers, per 4for4. With Sammy Watkins now ruled out for Week 7, Bateman should see even more volume than last week, when he still hit this prop with four receptions.
Using our FantasyLabs PlayerProp Tool, we project Bateman for 3.8 receptions, which is 8.6% above this threshold. This is an 8-rate prop by Sean Koerner, and the plus-money on many sites makes this even more attractive.
Falcons vs. Dolphins
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Billy Ward: Miami and Atlanta are two of the worst scoring defenses in the league, both allowing 29.5 points per game. While both teams have struggled offensively, there's reason for optimism in that regard.
The Falcons have scored 57 points over their past two matchups, and should have their full complement of weapons with Calvin Ridley (personal reasons) expected back. This is effectively a two-week rest period for Ridley, since the Falcons had their bye last week. Matt Ryan has seen his yards/attempt increase each game this season, so he might not be washed just yet. Finally, Kyle Pitts is starting to emerge as the threat the Falcons drafted him to be, catching nine of 10 targets for over 100 yards and a score in his last outing.
On the Dolphins side, they have starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, and (probably) WR1 Devante Parker both in action for the first time since Week 1. Tagovailoa was solid in his return last week, completing over 70% of his passes and throwing two touchdowns. If they can get anything going on the ground, their offense should be able to move the ball in this one.
Both teams are also in the top eight in situation-neutral pace and pass rate over expectation, so there should be a few extra drives in this one.
Over 47 is still on the board at the moment, but I'd bet this all the way up to over 48.
