NFL Odds: Jaguars vs. Dolphins
| Jaguars Odds | +3 |
| Dolphins Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 47 |
| Time | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Location | London |
| TV | CBS |
We travel across the pond for the second consecutive week for an intrastate battle between the Miami Dolphins (1-4) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5).
Both teams are desperate for a win, with Miami suffering through a four-loss streak and Jacksonville still winless in Urban Meyer's debut season.
The Dolphins entered the 2021 season with hopes of a playoff berth after last year's surprising 10-6 campaign. With Tua Tagovailoa set to return, can they reverse the trend and build momentum for a postseason push? Or will the Jaguars earn their first win of 2021?
Dolphins Get Their QB Back
Despite the poor record, Miami's struggles can mostly be attributed to injuries.
After earning a 17-16 upset win at New England in Week 1, Miami lost Tagovailoa just eight minutes into the Week 2 loss to Buffalo. Since that point, Miami has also dealt with injuries to wide receivers Will Fuller and DeVante Parker, as well as top cornerback Xavien Howard. All three are ruled out for Sunday, but the Dolphins still have enough playmakers to attack the Jaguars.
Tagovailoa’s return should bolster an offense that ranks only 29th overall in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA. Miami finally saw production from lead running back Myles Gaskin in Week 5 with 95 total yards, 10 receptions and two touchdowns. Now Gaskin faces a Jacksonville defense that's allowed a league-leading eight rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Miami has a talented group of receivers who should find success against a weak Jacksonville defense. Rookie Jaylen Waddle and Preston Williams provide a varied skill set that populates all three areas of the field.
While most teams choose to run the ball against Jacksonville near the goal line (only two rushing touchdowns allowed), the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts.
They have also allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, which should indicate another strong week for Miami’s Mike Gesicki. After a Week 1 performance with zero receptions, Gesicki has accumulated four straight weeks of 41 or more receiving yards, with two overall TE7 or better fantasy performances. Gesicki has the third-most receptions (22) at the position since Week 2, trailing only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce.
Miami’s offensive line has struggled all season, assembling five different starting lineups in just five games. However, Jacksonville has produced the second-fewest sacks of any NFL team, ahead of only Kansas City.
The Dolphins should have time for Tagovailoa to shake the rust off from injury recovery and eventually generate points against the worst defense they’ve faced all season.
A Jaguars Team In Disarray
The Jaguars team is in disarray after a winless start to the season and distractions provided by head coach Urban Meyer. There are already rumblings surrounding Meyer's future with the team, which makes it hard to see the motivation for Jacksonville in this spot.
Statistically, the Jaguars have been among the worst teams in football. Their pass defense ranks dead-last in DVOA, and their run defense has allowed those league-leading eight touchdowns. Making matters even worse, the Jaguars will be without top linebacker Myles Jack for this game due to a back injury.
Offensively, Jacksonville is led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The No. 1 overall pick has experienced the usual first-year struggles, ranking just 26th in passing yards (1146), 31st in true completion percentage (65%) and 25th in fantasy points per game (16.2).
The Jaguars passing attack suffered a huge loss when wide receiver D.J. Chark was lost for the season with a fractured ankle in Week 4 against Cincinnati. Then, last week against a poor Tennessee defense, Jacksonville's leading receiver was newly-acquired tight end Dan Arnold with 64 receiving yards — and that was despite playing at home with a plethora of negative game script resulting from a 31-13 deficit entering the fourth quarter.
NFL Picks: Dolphins vs. Jaguars
I think Meyer is a “dead coach walking” heading into this Week 6 battle in London. Miami is the better-coached team, the more motivated team and should get a huge boost from the return of Tagovailoa.
The Jaguars are 1-4 against the spread, and with the loss of Chark and Jack, they are even without two key pieces on both sides of the ball.
The Dolphins faced the Super Bowl champion Bucs without Fuller and Parker in Week 5 and were trailing only 24-17 entering the fourth quarter. Now, the Dolphins get Tagovailoa back.
I’m backing the Dolphins up to -3.5.
Pick: Dolphins -3 | to -3.5
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